Presentation on theme: "World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Environmental Emergency Response WMO support to nuclear emergency."— Presentation transcript:
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Environmental Emergency Response WMO support to nuclear emergency from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, following the Earthquake (M9.0) and Tsunami (14+m) 11 March 2011 Geoff Love and Peter Chen Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WMO Secretariat 13 July WMO
Lessons from responding to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations Adapted from presentation by Dr Geoffrey Love Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Delivered to IAEA Ministerial Conference keynote address on Emergency Preparedness and Response Vienna, 20 – 24 June 2011
WMO TMI Chernobyl Fukushima Daiichi
Relevant roles of National Meteorological Services (NMSs)
Numerical simulation of atmospheric transport and dispersion - modelling technology to support environmental emergency response; Dependent on, integrated with operational Numerical Weather Prediction system infrastructure at global and regional centres; 24/7/365 operational commitment of designated regional specialized meteorological centres (RSMC); Operational standards, procedures; Regular exercise and testing; WMO EER Activities: Nuclear accidents and radiological emergency response
Montreal, Canada Washington DC, USA Exeter, UK Toulouse, France Obninsk, Russian Federation Beijing, China Tokyo, Japan Melbourne, Australia WMOs 8 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) for Atmospheric transport modelling RTH Offenbach – IAEA notification to WMO via GTS EER Operations
Concept of Operations: IAEA - WMO Notification and WMO RSMC services (IAEA EPR-JPLAN 2010)
The Earthquake occurred at UTC, Friday, 11 th of March 2011, and at UTC the WMO EER System was first requested to provide advice to designated authorities on the likely evolution of the radioactive cloud that was being accidentally released from the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. Within few hours the first dispersion charts were available, and were produced routinely until no longer required. EER System Performance
Lesson #1 EER System worked well The EER dispersion charts are based on having: A well validated model Accurate winds to start with and high quality wind forecasts to calculate likely future cloud dispersion Good forecasts of rainfall through the forecast period and realistic washout processes in the model Realistic settling rates for the radioactive material Realistic radioactive decay rates
Lesson #2 Default release when source term/sequence is unknown The Source Term (from instructions to EER Centres): Default values to be used in response to a request for products for the unspecified source parameters Uniform vertical distribution up to 500 m above the ground; Uniform emission rate during six hours; Starting date/time: date/time specified at START OF RELEASE on request form or, if not available, then the Date/Time of Request specified at the top of the request form; Total pollutant release 1 Bq (Becquerel) over 6 hours; Type of radionuclide Cs-137.
Lesson #3 Understanding the source sequence From the New York Times (18 April, 2011) – a publicly available view of the time history of the source term (published 5 weeks after the commencement of the nuclear emergency) Total estimated release – officially published 13 April 2011
Lesson #4 Monitoring at the NPP for EPR Adequate, robust with failsafe, monitoring systems should be located around each nuclear power station such that the source term is known accurately and quickly – why? Right to know Protective actions Regulatory requirements National vs Global/Regional needs for accurate information General Public Food and Agriculture Transportation
Basic set of products Five maps consisting of: Three dimensional trajectories starting at 500, 1500 and 3000 m above the ground, with particle locations at 6h intervals (main synoptic hours up to the end of the dispersion model forecast); Time integrated air borne concentrations in Bq.s m 3 within the layer 500 m above the ground, for each of the three forecast periods; Total deposition (wet + dry) in Bq m 2 from the release time to the end of the dispersion model forecast. A joint statement that will be issued as soon as available (QA) Lesson #5 Standard products are pre-determined
Analyses and hindcasts are important Lesson #6 Use analyzed wind fields not forecast wind fields Use observed rainfall not forecast rainfall Use a realistic, time dependent source term/emission sequence Validate using available observations of fallout and atmospheric concentrations at available measuring sites Scale dependency
Measured deposition Cs-134 & 137, May 2011 by MEXT and US DOE (Japan report, 16 June 2011) Understanding the deposition pattern, with detailed meteorological data and analyses wind, dispersion rain and snowfall Lesson #7 Knowing where radioactive particles settle is important
Lesson #8 Public Information The tools exist, in the public domain to reproduce the EER products, albeit without the products that result having sufficient metadata attached to truly assess their utility. The public demand for information is intense. - and even if the metadata were there, could the public make informed assessments and decisions? The coordination of advice to governments is difficult enough, under the pressure of an ongoing emergency coordinating information to the publics in a number of countries, across language barriers is truly very difficult – but critical if governments wish to maintain the confidence of their publics.
Lesson #9 Meteorology and Hydrology in Nuclear Safety Siting of Nuclear Power Plants Standard procedures and guidelines urgently need to be updated for assessing all geophysical hazards, along with other hazards, for existing and proposed nuclear power stations; They should include adapting to climate change among the many considerations; They must be multi-disciplinary in the broadest sense.
The Way Forward Review all aspects of the WMO EER system Update the products to reflect current S&T capabilities Work with the power station industry and CTBTO to make source term / source sequence data available as soon as possible Work within the UN-System to find more efficient ways of developing joint statements that inform all those potentially affected by the disaster – embed these ways into operational procedures and test them routinely Use the routine tests to bring together organizations (including the media) and governments into cooperative alliances A real emergency – not business as usual
UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) - Study for Fukushima Daiichi accident UNSCEAR: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation Secretariat Fukushima assessment UNSCEAR/58/7 (Attachment 3/Rev.2) UNSCEAR had the remit and would be expected to produce a scientific report to the General Assembly on the levels and effects of radiation exposure. Accordingly the Chair of UNSCEAR requested the Secretary to foster the development of a proposal on this subject…………
UNSCEAR Data required as basis for the UNSCEAR report on the levels and effects of radiation exposure as a consequence of the Fukushima accident Source term: What is the amount and nature of radioactive material released to the environment? How much to air? How much to sea? What radionuclides were released? What was the time profile? ………………………….. Meteorological data (numerical weather prediction data – i.e. three dimensional gridded spatial and temporal information - validated/corrected with observations, for all of Japan) for the duration of the release and subsequent air circulation time Precipitation data (locations, intensity, duration and type – rain, snow – of precipitation) Topography (no time dependency required) Data required for dispersion modelling in the sea Nuclide-specific activity concentration in air (for the duration of the release and subsequent air circulation time) Nuclide-specific deposition to the ground ……………
Still a General Emergency but stabilized RSMCs on full alert and preparedness UN System-wide study on implications WMO to review nuclear EER procedures and standards WMO to continue cooperating with IAEA on Nuclear Safety standards and WMO technical guidance WMO (including CBS) to work with the UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation (Study for Fukushima Daiichi accident) Current Situation