1. Page 1 Digital Transformations A Research Programme at London Business School Funded by the Leverhulme Trust The Social/Economic Impact of Information and Communication Technology Project Overview by Leonard Waverman, Professor of Economics, London Business School. Principal Investigators: Melvyn Fuss, Jean Imbs, Michael Jacobides, Fernando Suarez, Len Waverman

2. Page 2 We Set Out to Investigate… The Digital Divide in the Spread of ICT Digitisation, Growth and Productivity Industry-level Impact of ICT Firm-level Impact of ICT Public policy implications of above

3. Page 3 How the World Is Changing….I The Digital Divide is narrowing: but not in the way we expected it to. Developing world catching up fast in some areas, still lagging badly in others.

4. Page 4 How the World is Changing…..II The US isnt a leader in broadband (and many other technologies)- but why is it the only country enjoying sustained productivity gains clearly related to ICT?

5. Page 5 Uneven Impact of ICT on Productivity Growth ICT led to productivity growth accelerating in US in 1995-01, but productivity growth fell in Europe.

6. Page 6 Digital Divide –Empirical work defining and measuring the determinants of the Digital Divide. –Study of impact of mobile telephones in developing countries. –Firm use and impact of ICT in Brazil, India and UK. Digitisation, Growth and Productivity –Macro-level econometric study of OECD countries. –Analysis of sectoral variances and relative price effects of ICT. We Have Investigated….

7. Page 7 Industry-level Impacts of ICT –Interaction of ICT and transaction costs in various industries. –ICT impact on firm boundaries and dis-integration. Firm-level Impact of ICT –Analysis of causality between IT and firm performance. –Analysis of network effects in technology selection and performance of ICT investment. –(Ongoing) survey of ICT investment, and links with firm organisation and environment. We Have Investigated….

8. Page 8 ….And Found (Highlights) Digital Divide - DD –Income is not the only factor affecting DD: new approaches to defining the DD and determinants suggest a greater role for the structure and dynamics of the economy. –ICT is necessary but not sufficient : different technology platforms explain differences in ICT uptake –Mobile phones are closing Digital Divide- significant impact on long-term growth.

9. Page 9 ….And Found (Highlights) Digitisation, Growth and Productivity –Volatile sectors possibly grow faster- evidence for creative destruction- but in low-tech sectors this relationship is reversed. –ICT capital has higher marginal product than non-ICT capital. –New estimates of the extent of ICT spillovers, i.e. usage of IC as well as telecoms. –Interaction between telecoms modernisation and PCs significant, networked computer versus standalone computer.

10. Page 10 Findings (Continued) Industry-level impacts of ICT –ICTs both constrain and enable firms in their ability to vertically reorganise. –ICTs can reduce transaction costs, but this is not about technology but about coordination and information.

11. Page 11 Findings (Continued) Firm-level impacts of ICT –ICTs may not cause performance improvement in all industries. –ICTs impact on performance in services is clearer, in non-services, managerial variables more important. –Strong ties network effects are critical in technology adoption.

12. Page 12 Findings (Continued) Public Policy –US predominance in ICTs impact on productivity –Management matters, not just ICT investment or complementary assets

13. Page 13 Events and Conferences September 30- October 1, 2003: –Major conference at LBS covering all the research themes. Over 80 people attended, from leading universities on both sides of the Atlantic. Mini conferences: –Technological, institutional and organisational perspectives on the evolution of value chains. (Academy of Management, New Orleans, August 2004). –Mismeasurement of ICT (London, October 1, 2004). –The Economic Impact of ICT: Firms, Industries and the Macro-economy (Co-hosted with NIESR, July 1, 2005). –IT investment and organisational performance- Newest Insights on an Old Paradox (Academy of Management, Hawaii, August 2005). –Miniconference on policy implications (September 2006) and sessions at the Academy of Management conference in Atlanta (August 2006). Workshops- with (among others) Taiwanese Institute for Information Industry, Digital Plastic and Amadeus Capital, CEPR/Vodafone and academic collaborators.

14. Page 14 Partners Our partners include: –The Wharton School, Mack Centre for Technology. –National Institute for Economic and Social Research. –Business and Information Technologies project (BIT) at UCLA. –IMBEC, Brazil. –Centre for New and Emerging Markets (CNEM), London Business School. –International Telecommunication Union. –Science and Technology Policy Research Unit (SPRU). –ITU