1. Adaptation to Climate Change: National and European Research Projects Zsolt Harnos Hungarian Academy of Sciences Climate change: challenge for training of applied scientists Fact and fictions Symposium and Training Course Martonvásár 27 th October 2008

2. 2 Outline Some findings of the Green Paper Some consequences of CC in Hungary Research Projects CLIVARA VAHAVA Climate change: environment – risk – society ADAM Climate change and agriculture modelling work some results

3. 3 Climate change presents a double challenge today. First, severe climate change impacts can only be prevented by early, deep cuts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Swift transition to a global low- carbon economy is therefore the central pillar of the EUs integrated climate change and energy policy in order to reach the EUs objective of keeping global average temperature increase below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2°C change, the risk of dangerous and unpredictable climate change increases significantly and costs of adaptation escalate. That is why mitigation is such an imperative for the global community.

4. 4 Second, with climate change already happening, societies worldwide face the parallel challenge of having to adapt to its impacts as a certain degree of climate change is inevitable throughout this century and beyond, even if global mitigation efforts over the next decades prove successful. While adaptation action has therefore become an unavoidable and indispensable complement to mitigation action, it is not an alternative to reducing GHG emissions.

5. 5 "We need to fight the battle against climate change on two fronts," Dimas said. "We must sharply reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent future climate change from reaching dangerous levels, but at the same time Europe must also adapt to the climate change that is already happening." Unless the EU and its member states plan a coherent policy response in advance, we could be forced into taking sudden, unplanned adaptation measures to react to increasingly frequent crises and disasters. This would prove far more costly, he warned.

6. 6 EU Climate Change Policies following the European Council of March 2007 A unilateral EU target to cut greenhouse gases by at least 20 % by 2020 compared with 1990 levels. A conditional EU target of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990. Beyond 2020, developed countries should be aiming at collective cuts in emissions of 60-80 % by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. A binding target of a 20 % share of renewable energies in overall EU energy consumption by 2020. By 2020, all member states must achieve a 10 % minimum binding target for the share of biofuels in overall EU transport fuel consumption. A non-binding commitment to reduce the EU's energy consumption by 20% compared to projections for 2020 through improvements in energy efficiency.

7. 7 Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said, "People all over Europe will increasingly feel the threatening effects of climate change on their health, jobs and housing, and the most vulnerable members of society will be the hardest hit." EU Environment Commisionner Stavros Dimas (Photo courtesy European Commision)

8. 8 Water: Climate change will further reduce access to safe drinking water. Drought-affected areas are likely to increase. Ecosystems and biodiversity: Approximately 20 – 30 % of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 – 2.5°C. Food: Climate change is expected to increase the risk of famine; the additional number of people at risk could rise to several hundred millions. Health: Climate change will have direct and indirect impacts on human and animal health. Over the last three decades climate change has already had a marked influence on many physical and biological systems worldwide:

9. 9 The Green Paper sets out four lines of priority actions to be considered: 1.Early action to develop adaptation strategies in areas where current knowledge is sufficient 2.Integrating global adaptation needs into the EU's external relations and building a new alliance with partners around the world 3.Filling knowledge gaps on adaptation through EU- level research and exchange of information 4.Setting up a European advisory group on adaptation to climate change to analyze coordinated strategies and actions

10. 10 When to adapt? Early action will bring clear economic benefits by anticipating potential damages and minimizing threats to ecosystems, human health, economic development, property and infrastructure. Furthermore competitive advantages could be gained for European companies that are leading in adaptation strategies and technologies.

11. 11 What can we expect in Hungary? warming becomes stronger in the Carpathian Basin decrease of annual average precipitation; increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The recent tendencies prove this hypothesis. 2007 is the warmest and driest year since the end of XIX th century The average temperature was 2.6 C higher than the long term average. a lot of extreme events of 2007(storms, ice rain, spring froze etc.) long heat wave, record heat

12. 12 Hydrology and water resources Hungary located in Carpathian basin and the catchments area is outside of borders The problems are: variable water levels of rivers flood, level of soil water, water level of lakes, irrigation etc. Between 2000 and 2003 the water level of Balaton decreased by 70 cm, in consequence of it the tourism is driven back.

13. 13 2005 Duna river at Budapest 2003 lake Balaton

14. 14 Mátrakeresztes 18.05.2005.

15. 15 Heat waves Data-Source: IVS, WHO, … More than 20,000 excess deaths in Western and Southern Europe in the summer of 2003. More than 600 deaths in Hungary in July of 2007. The number of excess deaths due to heat is projected to increase in the future

16. 16 Climate change contributes to forest fires 18 billion HUF loss in the forests in Hungary in 2007

17. 17 Big storms in Europe The losses are some 35 billionEURO since 1970. Some very serious storms have been in Hungary during the last years, e.g. 20 th August of 2006 and 2007 Source: Sigma Database, Swiss Re

18. 18 In Hungary harmful impacts and financial expenditure of hazard management due to unfavourable meteorological extremities range between 150-180 billion HUF(600-800 million EUR). This is almost 1% of the national GDP. Likely the loss of agriculture will be higher than the 1% of the GDP in 2007.

19. 19 CLIVARA project 1995 – 2000 led by Martin Parry, ECU Oxford University

20. 20 Production change of winter wheat by CLIVARA project

21. 21 A research project was organized in 2003 titled VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás) supported by the Ministry of Environment and Water and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences The main scopes of the research program are – adaptation and – response to climate change impacts.

22. 22 The main objective of the VAHAVA project can been summarised in two points: Preparation of the Hungarian society and economy for a probably warmer and drier future; Creation of a last responding technical, financial, organisational system, which is able to prevent, or handle the damaging effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme weather events.

23. 23 VAHAVA was finished in 2006. The Ministry of Environment and Water elaborated the National Climate Change Strategy (NÉS). It includes mitigation and adaptation both. The Parliament of Hungary accepted it in March, 2008.

24. 24 The three pillar of the NÉS mitigation, adaptation, preparation of the Hungarian society for the climate change.

25. 25 In 2006 a new research project started. Climatic change: environment – risk – society (VAHAVA II) led by the Corvinus University of Budapest. The project supported by the National Office for Research and Technology (NKTH) The Members of the consortium: Szent István University Eötvös Loránd University Budapest University of Technology and Economics Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Agricultural Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences The National Directorate General for Disaster Management

26. 26 The main aims: research and innovation development. Research areas: regional climate modelling agricultural production agrotechnique land use risk analysis catastrophe management

27. 27

28. 28 International research project ADAM - ADaptation And Mitigation Strategies: supporting European climate policy led by Mike Hulme, Tyndall Centre UK, Norwich. The participants – 15 countries – 24 institutes Duration: 2006 – 2009

29. 29 To assess the extent to which existing and evolving EU (and world) mitigation and adaptation policies can achieve a tolerable transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2 C above pre-industrial levels, and to identify their associated costs and effectiveness. To develop and appraise a portfolio of longer term policy options that could contribute to addressing shortfalls both between existing mitigation policies and the achievement of the EUs 2 C target, and between existing adaptation policy development and EU goals and targets for adaptation. To develop a novel Policy-options Appraisal Framework and apply it both to existing and evolving climate policies, and to new, long-term policy options in the following four case studies: European and international climate protection strategy in post- 2012 Kyoto negotiations; a re-structuring of International Development Assistance; the EU electricity sector; and regional spatial planning. Core ADAM Objectives

30. 30 The main task of Hungarian Group is preparing a case study on the Tisza river basin. In the frame of this project the possible impacts of climate change on environment, economy (mainly agriculture, land use), society will be analysed.

31. 31 Climate change and agriculture Climate change can be investigated from two aspects: it is a continuous, linear and slow change of mean temperature and precipitation; it is a nonlinear change with more frequent and serious anomalies.

32. 32 The crop development is accelerated by the higher temperature assuming no nutrient and water stress. Much higher temperature than optimal, however, can danger the crop growing and survive. High temperature increases evapotranspiration which can rapidly dry up the soil. Increasing CO 2 concentration has a positive effect to the biomass accumulation. Water use in agriculture is expected to be much more expensive and so strictly limited because of increasing private and industrial water use under warmer temperature conditions. Soil productivity is also expected to be changed because organic matter brakes down more intensively at high temperature. Warming up has a positive effect on the reproduction and winter mortality rate of pests which makes the invasion easier. Thus, the protection against pests becomes more expensive.

33. 33 IPCC prognosis: potential cereal production

34. 34 Considering the second (changeable) type of climate change we can establish that anomalies make the production uncertain, extreme events can cause catastrophes which have serious social and economic effects. Some kinds of extreme situations (drought, flood, inland water, wind storm) were observed in Hungary, too. The analysis of these events and the elaboration of an adaptation strategy are the main points of the investigations.

35. 35 Climate change: environment – risk – society Some results from the agricultural modelling The scope of the research: crop modelling, risk analysis, adaptation strategy.

36. 36 Main steps of modelling work setting up the information system soil hydrology meteorology productivity climate scenarios

37. 37 determination of crop productivity depending on the changing environmental parameters risk analysis model building, determination of model restriction conditions depending on the social, energetical, demand etc. conditions model calculations

38. 38 Model structure

39. 39 Some findings The expectable consequences of climatic changes are: the existing agricultural zones would be pushed further north, the arid nature of climate would strengthen, which would bring along with it increased risk for cultivation.

40. 40 Analogue regions for the future

41. 41 April – September precipitation (mm) 2015 A2 2045 A2 2060 A2 2030 A2 2015 B2 2030 B2 2045 B2 2060 B2

42. 42 April – September effective temperature sum ( C, T b = 10 C) 2015 A2 2045 A2 2060 A2 2030 A2 2015 B2 2045 B2 2060 B2 2030 B2

43. 43 Aridity index ( C/mm) Apr. – Sept. effective temp. sum / yearly precipitation 2015 A2 2060 A2 2030 A2 2015 B2 2030 B2 2045 B2 2060 B2 2045 A2

44. 44 Komárom-Esztergom county Maize April-September effective temperature sum April-September precipitation yield prognosis A dry – cold12753006.3 B dry – warm14502506.3 C wet – cold11504257.4 D wet – warm14254258.2 19701288325 19851298326 200014181442334330 201515351617303234 203016001718294278 204517671873287271 206020012053266253 207521932161243234

45. 45 Clusters for 30 years periods 1986-2015 (2000) 2016-2045 (2030) 1946-2075 (2060)

46. 46 Simulation modelling – Clivara project AFRCWHEAT2 Reference crop – winter wheat

47. 47 Simulated winter wheat yields CountyObserved yield (t/ha) Simulated yield (t/ha) AFRCWHEAT Győr Observed weather4.880.634.90.5 Generated weather CO 2 conc.: 360 ppm3.70.4 CO 2 conc.: 500 ppm4.20.5 Debrecen Observed weather4.690.694.80.6 Generated weather CO 2 conc.: 360 ppm3.80.4 CO 2 conc.: 500 ppm4.40.5

48. 48 Distribution of yield and loss of the winter wheat

49. 49 wheat maize Csongrád county Hajdú-Bihar county The distribution of relative loss of yield

50. 50

51. 51 The factors of the adaptation strategy are the following: new varieties (adaptation to new vegetation periods, resistance, water-use, etc.), new agrotechnics, land use, risk reducing techniques, catastrophe analysis, elaboration of an adaptation strategy, socio-economic consequences.

52. 52 Thank you for your attention!