1. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Examples of pro-active approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties

2. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 2 Forward looking is about uncertainties Controversial policy dossiers –Disagreement about how the future should develop (normative) –Contesting problem frames –Doubts about quality of data and analysis How to add value and clarity to the user?

3. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 3 Challenges Expert advisers should be reflexive (making concious choices) Methods for dealing with uncertainty should merely be considered as tools, not as the solutions Fear for paralysis in policy making should not be allowed to block communication about uncertainty Communication with a wider audience about uncertainties is crucial

4. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 4 Politicians must decide under uncertainty The law that provides the agencys mandate requires that different scientific perspectives in areas of controversy should be reported PBL must inspire the Ministry in openness and dealing with uncertainties PBL, policy, plurality and uncertainties

5. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 5 Two examples from the PBL Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and communication: –Systematic step-wise approach to address uncertainties Contested problem frames as a starting point fpr scenario development:The example of the Dutch Nature Outlook 2020-2040. Four Visions on Nature Policy development. –Accomodating a plurality of views and possible futures –How to avoid confusion while bringing the message?

6. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 6 Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication

7. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 7 Purpose of the Guidance Offer assistance to analysts Focussed on the following parts of assessments: –problem framing –involvement of stakeholders –selection of indicators –appraisal of knowledge base –mapping and assessment of relevant uncertainties –reporting of uncertainty information

8. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 8 CONSENSUS ON KNOWLEDGE CONSENSUS ON VALUES + _ + _ Structured problem road maintenance Moderately structured (consensus on means) problem abortion; euthanasia Moderately structured (consensus on goals) problem particulate matter Unstructured problem climate change Policy problems advocate problem recognizer mediator problem solver

9. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 9 Predictions are fundamentally non- statistical. Scenario uncertainty is not only about model inputs! In end-to-end assessment of uncertainty, you also must be aware of what can go wrong in the upper levels of the assessment (summaries, press releases, media stories)

10. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 10 CONSENSUS ON KNOWLEDGE CONSENSUS ON VALUES + _ + _ Structured problem statistical uncertainty Moderately structured (consensus on means) problem value-ladenness Moderately structured (consensus on goals) problem methodological unreliability; recognized ignorance Unstructured problem recognized ignorance; methodological unreliablity; value- ladenness Relevant uncertainties

11. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 11

12. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 12 Detailed Guidance Structure of the Guidance Quickscan Hints & Actions List Quickscan Questionnaire Mini-Checklist Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment Reminder list Invokes Reflection Portal to QS Further Guidance Advice Hints & Implications

13. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 13 Stakeholder Participation Guidance

14. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 14 Eight general conclusions (I) 1.Be tolerant with respect to uncertainty 2.Consider uncertainty information as knowledge 3.Recognizing ignorance often more important than characterizing variability 4.Communicate uncertainty in terms of societal/political risks

15. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 15 Eight general conclusions (II) 5. Perform extended peer reviews on knowledge inputs 6.Maintain space for dissidents 7.Make use of best practices in uncertainty communication 8.Institutionalize attention for uncertainty (guidances, courses, professional roles,...)

16. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 16

17. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 17 Dutch Nature Outlook 2020-2040

18. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 18 Background for the Dutch Nature Outlook One of the tasks of PBL (in the law) Natural resources are exploited in a unsustainable way Nature is increasingly considered a hindrance for other land uses Growing gap between nature and landscape policy and society Decentralisation, deregulation en privatising of policy Motives and guiding principles for policy?

19. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 19 Objectives Inspire the discourse on the future of nature and landscapes in our country Support nature and landscape policy in order to make is more robust, flexible and effective Input for interdepartmental discourse about the future of rural areas Input for interdepartmental policy research programme on nature Input for policy proposals to cut government budgets

20. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 20 From motives to challenges Keep, restore and develop internationally characteristic biodiversity Make green areas in city and the countryside accessible and create possibilities for people to enjoy and experience them Recognize functions of nature and use resources in a more sustainable way Increase natures economic wins and reduce burden of rules resulting from Nature policy

21. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 21 Four Visions Vital Nature Nature as experience Functional NatureFitting Nature

22. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 22 Scenario-cycle

23. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 23 Vital Nature Challenge: turning the trend of downgrading biodiversity Guiding principle: intrinsic value of nature and landscapes Large and coherent national ecological network: dunes, marshes, rivers, and lateral moraines Sustainable populations, natural processes, climate zones Nature is separated from other land uses

24. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 24 Vital Nature National government makes long-term visions, defines a clear policy framework, generates budgets, and supervises other actors Policy programmes for nature development and water management are combined Ecological networks is scaled up, upgraded, and connected with neighbour countries Agriculture around natural areas is subject to firm norms

25. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 25 Functional Nature Challenge: reducing the exploitation of natural resources Guiding principle: sustainable use of nature and landscapes Many small natural sites and landscape elements in rural areas; many parks and green spaces in and around cities Used for water retention, holding CO2, production of biomass, pollination Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses and valued as equal

26. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 26 Functional Nature Municipalities cooperate intensively with public and private organisations Public-private enterprises organise local and regional markets for ecosystem services Ecological network is transformed into local and regional ecosystem networks In the whole country agriculture is subject to firm norms

27. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 27 Nature as Experience Challenge: bridging the gap between nature policy and society Guiding principle: improving aesthetic quality of living and working environment Many newly developed landscape elements in highly accessible rural areas Many green and blue oases in cities and recreational sites around them Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses and considered equal

28. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 28 Nature as experience Provinces coordinate integrated regional development Public and private organisations transfer money into regional development funds Ecological network is extended and transformed in highly attractive and accessible sites Agriculture in and around natural sites is subject to firm norms

29. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 29 FittingNature Challenge: reducing costs and hindrance of other land uses Guiding principle: nature and landscapes represent money value and shouldnt limit other land uses Few and little natural sites and landscape elements scattered around the country Small parks and green elements in the cities Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses but subordinate

30. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 30 Fitting Nature Private and public organisations go into partnerships (site administrators are privatised) Real estate developers and municipalities invest in small parks, canals and ponds Ecological networks is reduced to Natura 2000 sites Farmers, leisure entrepreneurs, etc. are allowed to expand their activities in and around natural sites

31. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 31 Assessing effects

32. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 32 Building blocks for policy Ecological network keeps its value Room for experience and recreation Recognize and stimulate sustainable use More attention to wins, less to burdens Planning (RO) policy is the basis for multiple land use

33. 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 33 9 februari 2012 | Petra van Egmond en Ed Dammers Natuurverkenning 2010 - 2040 33 How did the messages land? Minister for Economics, Agriculture and Innovation: Interested; no commitments Parliament: Strong disagreements between the parties Scoring the effects helps to focus discussions Provinces: are interested to think through the Visions Nature organizations and others: A lot of interest in further presentations