1. © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Global Risk Assessment Presented by: Gerald J. Komisar Vice President Global Risk Assessments May 07, 2004 Miami, Florida Confidential The World at Risk: Threats to International Business The World at Risk: Threats to International Business

2. 1 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved.  Global economic downturn and recovery Dramatic changes in the world in the past few years have impacted our lives and businesses in profound ways.  Expansion of worldwide risks  Globalization  Perceptions of the United States

3. 2 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A discussion of geo-political and security risks  Perspectives on terrorism and global security threats  Regional “hotspots”  Understanding and managing global risks

4. 3 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A Global Terrorism Assessment Status Report  International cooperation  Terrorists under pressure  Conclusions  Homeland defense

5. 4 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. A Global Terrorism Assessment Current Threats  Al Qaeda  Regional groups  Preferred targets  Terrorist weapons

6. 5 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Middle East Iran Oman Yemen Turkey UAE Jordan Israel Syria Lebanon Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia  Situation in Iraq  Israel - Palestine  Regional attitudes Regional Issues Affecting Global Security

7. 6 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Southeast Asia Thailand Malaysia Sing. Indonesia Philippines  Problem areas  Prospects Regional Issues Affecting Global Security

8. 7 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Europe Regional Issues Affecting Global Security United Kingdom Spain Italy Greece Poland Hungary

9. 8 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Africa Regional Issues Affecting Global Security Algeria Tunisia Morocco Somalia Kenya Tanzania Nigeria

10. 9 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Kashmir  Afghanistan  Pakistan  India-Pakistan Relations Regional Issues Affecting Global Security

11. 10 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Asia  Korea  Greater China North Korea South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Russia China Japan Regional Issues Affecting Global Security

12. 11 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela  Regional stability issues  Security factors Regional Issues Affecting Global Security

13. © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved.  Understanding and assessing business risks  Developing effective risk management solutions Outlook  Enduring threat of terrorism and geopolitical risk

14. 13 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. EBB Home Page

15. 14 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Featured Article

16. 15 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Regional Page

17. 16 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Industry Page

18. 17 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Custom Report

19. 18 © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Archive

20. © 2004 American International Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Global Risk Assessment Presented by: Gerald J. Komisar Vice President Global Risk Assessments May 07, 2004 Miami, Florida Confidential The World at Risk: Threats to International Business The World at Risk: Threats to International Business