Presentation on theme: "Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making"— Presentation transcript:
1 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingByeongwon Park* & Seok-ho SonTechnology Foresight CenterKorea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning
2 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century.
3 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Past and Present of Korea’s S&TWorld 8th Power in S&T by 2025SCI Paper19,279(2004)55% (since 2000)US Patents4,42834% (since 2000)R&D Budget28,774(milliom US$ PPP)56% (since 2000)New S&T AdministrationSince 2004# of Researcher156,220 FTE44% (since 2000)Corporate ResearchInstitutes10,270(2004)TechnologicalCompetitiveness2nd (IMD, 2005)7th(WEF, 2005)Rapid Progress all the areain S&T related activity
4 Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05) Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingGovernment R&D in KoreaGovernmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology DevelopmentRest of Ministries(Defense, Agriculture, Transportation,etc.)MOST : 19% for Scientific R&DMOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research OrganizationsMOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & EnergyMOST : Ministry of Science & Technology MIC : Ministry of Information & CommunicationOSTI: Office of Science & Technology InnovationMIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology
5 President N S T C * OSTI MOCIE MIC Others Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingGovernment R&D Related Organizational StructurePresidentN S T C *MOSTVice Prime MinistryOSTIMOCIEMICOthersKISTEPITEPKOSEFAgenciesIITAMain Bodies of R&D (Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc)*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council
6 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea8283848586878889909192939495969798992000200120022004HAN Project (G7)Dual Use Tech. ProgramSpace Tech. Development ProgramMOSTMOST National R&D ProgramsCreative Research InitiativesNRL Program21C Frontier ProgramNuclear Energy Development ProgramNext-generation growth engine programBasic Science ProgramMOCIEIndustrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation ProgramMICInformation & Telecommunication Technology ProgramMODDual Use Tech. ProgramMOHWHealth & Medical Technology ProgramMOEnvEnvironmental Technology ProgramKey EnvironmentTech. ProgramMOAFAgricultural Technology ProgramSMBASmall Business Innovation ResearchMOEAcademia Support ProgramBK21 Program
7 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making BUT,Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years.
8 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean Economy in the midst of UncertaintyIncreasing risk due to new TechAdvances in NT, BT, ETFast-follower World leaderHigh oil price- 97% import of energyEnergy-intensive industry(ex.steel Ind.)Fast Ageing society-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)-Net decrease in population after 2020Socioeconomic Polarization-Collapse of middle class-Big Corp. vs. SMEs-Seoul vs. RegionalNorth KoreaFTA & economic Block38.3% GDP dependence on ExportRising China-Nutcraker Situation
9 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making challenges in S&T areaWeak Basic ResearchIncreasing Technology Trade Deficitsa serious sociocultural phenomena ofavoiding sci. & eng. among the young"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast.“-Paul J.H. Schoemaker
10 How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T? Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingHow can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?Foresight Activities
11 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making YEARDELPHIMIXEDPANEL/SCENARIO1970-1989Netherlands19901st Germany5th JapanOECD(→Present)19911st US-Core Tech.1992New Zealand, UN(→present)19931st Korean TF(→1994)2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech.1994FranceJapan/Germany1st UK19956th JapanFrance-100 core Tech.3rd US-critical Tech.1996JapanGermanyAU-ASTEC, Finalnd( )Netherlands (Future Committee)Italy industrial forecastingACUNU Millennium ProjectNigeria, India, Philippines1997Spain-OPTIIreland1998AustriaUS George Washington Univ.South Africa, New ZealandSweden, 4th US- critical Tech.Norway, APECEU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands19992nd Korean TF(→1999)SpainAPECHungary-TEP2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present)Ireland, Italy2000Venezuela2nd France-100 Core Tech.Italy 2nd Industrial forecastingChina, Portugal, Brazil20017th JapanCzech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia2002TurkeyBulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present)8th Japan(→2004)China 3rd Korean TF(→2004)EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)UK (every year)Germany( every year), UN, OECD
12 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Foresight is booming everywhere in the worldIncreasing interest in thinking about the future of S&Tin order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issuesIn order to formulate new strategy for S&T policyNowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms.Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders.Especially in the science and technology related area.The need for priorities in science and technologyNo one country can afford vast amount of R&D spendingThis Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.
13 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Currently On-going TF activity in KoreaTypeSponsoring MinistryFacilitating organizationThematic Area or Project TitleTime HorizonMethodologyTF(2006)Ministry of Information and CommunicationIITA(Institute for Information Technology Advancement)Foresight for Information Technology-2030DelphiNCA(National Computerization Agency)Ubiquitous Korea+15 yrsPanelMinistry of Health and WelfareKHIDI(Korea Health Industry Development Institute)Future Trends in Health care and Life ScienceMinistry of EnvironmentKIEST(Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology)Future Trends in Environmental TechnologyEnvironmental ScanningMinistry of Science and TechnologyKISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning)Thematic Foresight-Nanomaterial-Stem cell-Ubiquitous ComputingScenarioFThe PresidentialOfficePresidential Committee on Education InnovationFuture of Education in Korea-What we do right now?TRM(2001-present)Ministry of Commerce, Industry and EnergyKOTEF(Korea Industrial TechnologyFoundation)Technology Roadmap for- Material and Component- Industries(Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.)+10 yrsTRM PanelSTMinistry of Planning and BudgetCo-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute)Vision 2030- Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030
14 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOSTS&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human lifeHas to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for )) 1st TF ( ) and 2nd TF( ) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute) 3rd TF was carried out in by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.
15 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : CharacteristicsConsideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholdersApplication of Delphi methods for emerging technology that may solve the future needs and issueScenario writing for future society· Future prospect, needs/issues and technology· Internal consistency· Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based societyOffering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative societyTime Horizon : up to year 2030Project : Duration :TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea
16 Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making3rd Korean TF : Procedures1st phase2nd PhaseFuture perspectives Needs and Issues of society(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories(Dec. 2003)Future Technology Subjects and Delphi SurveyAnalysis(Aug. 2004)3rd PhaseFuture Social Systems Scenario Building(Dec. 2004)
17 10 sectors (based on key words) Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean TF : Sector Expert Panels10 sectors (based on key words)Space & earthMaterial & manufacturingInformation and knowledgeFood & bio-resourceLife & healthEnergy & environmentSafety & SecurutySocial InfrastructureManagement & innovation S&T and society/cultureDelphi SurveyProvide List of Future TechnologiesScenario
18 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : ResultsTechnology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)- Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues- Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety)Identify 761 future technology subjects- 61% of them will realize between- Korea is still lagging all future technology area- Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area- Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general publicBook, Comics, Movie in addition to formal reportGovernment took follow-up action quickly Future Strategic Technology
19 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology InitiativeGovernment launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight resultsCritical attributes of national strategic technologyEmergingDisruptiveConvergingStrategic area where government should be involved
20 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Priority Setting ProcedureFutureStrategicTech.3rd TechnologyForesightSurvey fromIndustrial &R&D Inst.Overseas DBFuture Tech.Candidate DB(KISTEP)Survey &2nd Screening1st Screening(Expert Panel)
21 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology 21Digital convergenceSmart computingNano and functional materialEconomic ImpactInformation securitySuper efficient transportationBio-resourceSatellitefusionCognitive science and humanoid robotCulture contentsRegenerative medicineQuality of LifePublic NeedBio-safety & defenseDrug discovery & personalized medicineBio-diversity and natural resources conservationUbiquitous civil infrastructureHazardㆍdisaster forecastNext generation nuclear energy and safetyClean and renewable energyGlobal observing systemClimate/weather forecastingMarine territory management
22 Technology Roadmapping in Korea Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingTechnology Roadmapping in Korea
23 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Brief History of TRM in KoreaPublic SectorMOCIEIndustrial Technology Roadmap1st Phase( ~ ), 2rd Phase( ~ ), 3rd Phase( ~ ), 4th Phase( ~ )Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.MOSTNational Technology Roadmap(2002)MICu-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)Private SectorSamsung ElectronicsCustomized TRM based on SRI-framework
24 KISTEP Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making NTRM : ApproachAnalysis of Industrial Need visions Directions49 Strategic Product/Functions Key Technologies NTRMIncorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modificationsHandle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approachNTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions anddetailed TRM for chosen key technologiesInter-Government CoordinationTaskForceNSTC OfficeKISTEPProject TeamNTRM Head CouncilVision ICommitteeVision IICommitteeVision IIICommitteeVision IVCommitteeVision VCommitteeTRM team ATRM team BTRM team C………..TRM team N
25 Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingNTRM by 5 Visions1Building an information-knowledge-intelligence society2Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia3Advancing the E2 Frontier4Upgrading the Valueof Major Industries of Korea Today5Improving National Safety and Prestige
26 Any-device Communication Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingBuilding an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence SocietyMeeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendlyAnytime, Anywhere,Any-device CommunicationInnovation in Contents &ServiceAmbient Intelligence
27 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Anytime,Anywhere,Any-deviceCommunicationMobile & Wearable IT DeviceUbiquitous NetworkIntelligent ComputingDigital ConvergenceInnovation inContents &ServiceAmbientIntelligenceIntelligent Medical SystemIntelligent Transport SystemIntelligent Building/HomeIntelligent Home ApplianceIntelligent RobotIntelligent Man-Machine InterfaceKnowledge/Information SecurityBusiness ServiceE-CommerceContentsBio-Diagnosis TechnologyDisplay TechnologyIntelligent Home Appliance TechnologyHome Network TechnologyMEMS TechnologyArt Intelligent TechnologyCulture Original Form Restore TechnologyCyber Communication TechnologyGame Engine TechnologyDigital Contents Authoring TechnologyMovie/Video/Digital Media StandardizationInformation Security TechnologyDigital Information Design TechnologyInformation Search DBMS TechnologyE-Finance TechnologyE-marketplace TechnologyTera-bit Optical Communication Elements TechnologyDigital Signal Processing TechnologyWire&Wireless Integration System Device TechnologyHigh Density Storage TechnologyIntelligent Network TechnologyNew Semiconductor Device TechnologyMobile Multimedia Contents TechnologyHigh-Speed Wireless Multimedia TechnologyOptical Internet TechnologyInformation-Knowledge-SocietyNext Generation Information System TechnologyS/W Standard/Design/ReuseDigital Broadcasting TechnologyVisionDirection of DevelopmentStrategic products and FunctionsKey Technologies
28 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and FunctionsStrategic ImportanceVery LowLowMiddleHighVery HighVeryEconomicImpactIntelligent Computing(765 billion $ in 2004)E-Commerce(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)Business Service(157 trillion won in 2010)Knowledge/Information Security(30 billion $ from 2005)Man-MachineInterface Intelligence(Creating high-value-added,Complex productsIntelligent Robot(17 billion $ in 2005Intelligent Building/Home(15 trillion in 2010)Intelligent Transport System(425 billion $ in 2015)Intelligent Medical System(Creating new markets,reducing medical costs)Digital Convergence(570 billion $ in 2004)Ubiquitous Network(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))Intelligent Home Appliance(360 billion $ in 2005)Culture Contents(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)Mobile & WearableIT Device(73.3 billion $ in 2005)Potentialfor success
29 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile CommunicationHighCompetitiveness ofdomestic technologyMediumLow■●■◎narrowband CDMAmodemwideband CDMA modem■●QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code■●High-speed packet modem■●Power control, Smart antenna,Interference, SDRTechnology▣◎Fixed ATM/IP■●IP-based RAN■●IP-based RANwith smart antenna■●High-speed adaptiveRAN■●Wireless IP core tech.(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)▣◎Networkinterworking(GW)▣●Homogeneous networkIntegrationActive core network■●▣◎DO/GPRSDO/DV/GPRS enhancements▣●ALL-IP core network■●▣●high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps■●Adhoc, Bluetooth▣●PANProduct2002200720122G cellular systemHMI/Hot Spot systemCdma20001x EV system4G mobile comm.Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DVW-CDMA system/ HSDPA■ ▣ □high lowImportance● basic research ⊙ international collaboration◎ applied research ○ OutsourcingR&D strategy
30 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Corporate Foresight: One Electronic CompanyAGTO : based in IBM GTO Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to IndustryDisruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New OnesExponential and ThresholdHow New Technology can Impact Customers/BusinessesUnderstand Customer ChallengesHas a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of CompanyFuture Technology Center –Research OrganizationSectoral Technology ForecastingSiemens : Picture of FutureCombination of Retropolation and Extrapolation
31 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Good signal for FTAEach Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit”More private companies have involved in foresight activityMore article about Future Technologies on newspaperA lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the governmentMovement to form “National Strategic unit”Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…
32 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making ChallengesDue to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in KoreaBut there are several things to be addressed.Capability to run TF (Facilitating)Not manyNot enough experiencesMethodological CompetenceTill now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better way to do?What is the best combination of methodsImpact on Policy makingSome, but not Clear yet
33 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Thank youDr. Byeongwon Park☎
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