1. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son
Technology Foresight Center
Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning

2. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century.

3. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Past and Present of Korea’s S&T
World 8th Power in S&T by 2025
SCI Paper
19,279(2004)
55% (since 2000)
US Patents
4,428
34% (since 2000)
R&D Budget
28,774(milliom US$ PPP)
56% (since 2000)
New S&T Administration
Since 2004
# of Researcher
156,220 FTE
44% (since 2000)
Corporate Research
Institutes
10,270(2004)
Technological
Competitiveness
2nd (IMD, 2005)
7th(WEF, 2005)
Rapid Progress all the area
in S&T related activity

4. Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D in Korea
Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development
Rest of Ministries
(Defense, Agriculture, Transportation,etc.)
MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D
MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations
MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy
MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication
OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation
MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology

5. President N S T C * OSTI MOCIE MIC Others
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D Related Organizational Structure
President
N S T C *
MOST
Vice Prime Ministry
OSTI
MOCIE
MIC
Others
KISTEP
ITEP
KOSEF
Agencies
IITA
Main Bodies of R&D (Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc)
*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council

6. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
2000
2001
2002
2004
HAN Project (G7)
Dual Use Tech. Program
Space Tech. Development Program
MOST
MOST National R&D Programs
Creative Research Initiatives
NRL Program
21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
Next-generation growth engine program
Basic Science Program
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)
Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program
MIC
Information & Telecommunication Technology Program
MOD
Dual Use Tech. Program
MOHW
Health & Medical Technology Program
MOEnv
Environmental Technology Program
Key Environment
Tech. Program
MOAF
Agricultural Technology Program
SMBA
Small Business Innovation Research
MOE
Academia Support Program
BK21 Program

7. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
BUT,
Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years.

8. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty
Increasing risk due to new Tech
Advances in NT, BT, ET
Fast-follower  World leader
High oil price
- 97% import of energy
Energy-intensive industry
(ex.steel Ind.)
Fast Ageing society
-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)
-Net decrease in population after 2020
Socioeconomic Polarization
-Collapse of middle class
-Big Corp. vs. SMEs
-Seoul vs. Regional
North Korea
FTA & economic Block
38.3% GDP dependence on Export
Rising China
-Nutcraker Situation

9. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
challenges in S&T area
Weak Basic Research
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
a serious sociocultural phenomena of
avoiding sci. & eng. among the young
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast.“
-Paul J.H. Schoemaker

10. How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?
Foresight Activities

11. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
YEAR
DELPHI
MIXED
PANEL/SCENARIO
1970-
1989
Netherlands
1990
1st Germany
5th Japan
OECD(→Present)
1991
1st US-Core Tech.
1992
New Zealand, UN(→present)
1993
1st Korean TF(→1994)
2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech.
1994
France
Japan/Germany
1st UK
1995
6th Japan
France-100 core Tech.
3rd US-critical Tech.
1996
Japan
Germany
AU-ASTEC, Finalnd( )
Netherlands (Future Committee)
Italy industrial forecasting
ACUNU Millennium Project
Nigeria, India, Philippines
1997
Spain-OPTI
Ireland
1998
Austria
US George Washington Univ.
South Africa, New Zealand
Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech.
Norway, APEC
EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
1999
2nd Korean TF(→1999)
Spain
APEC
Hungary-TEP
2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present)
Ireland, Italy
2000
Venezuela
2nd France-100 Core Tech.
Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting
China, Portugal, Brazil
2001
7th Japan
Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
2002
Turkey
Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present)
8th Japan(→2004)
China
 3rd Korean TF(→2004)
EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)
UK (every year)
Germany( every year), UN, OECD

12. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world
Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T
in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues
In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy
Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms.
Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders.
Especially in the science and technology related area.
The need for priorities in science and technology
No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending
This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.

13. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea
Type
Sponsoring Ministry
Facilitating organization
Thematic Area or Project Title
Time Horizon
Methodology TF
(2006)
Ministry of Information and Communication
IITA
(Institute for Information Technology Advancement)
Foresight for Information Technology
-2030
Delphi
NCA
(National Computerization Agency)
Ubiquitous Korea
+15 yrs
Panel
Ministry of Health and Welfare
KHIDI
(Korea Health Industry Development Institute)
Future Trends in Health care and Life Science
Ministry of Environment
KIEST
(Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology)
Future Trends in Environmental Technology
Environmental Scanning
Ministry of Science and Technology
KISTEP
(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning)
Thematic Foresight
-Nanomaterial
-Stem cell
-Ubiquitous Computing
Scenario F
The Presidential
Office
Presidential Committee on Education Innovation
Future of Education in Korea
-What we do right now?
TRM
(2001-present)
Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy
KOTEF
(Korea Industrial Technology
Foundation)
Technology Roadmap for
- Material and Component
- Industries
(Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.)
+10 yrs
TRM Panel ST
Ministry of Planning and Budget
Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute)
Vision 2030
- Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030

14. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST
S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)
Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)
Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life
Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for ))
 1st TF ( ) and 2nd TF( ) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP
*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
 3rd TF was carried out in by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.

15. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Characteristics
Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders
Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that may solve the future needs and issue
Scenario writing for future society
· Future prospect, needs/issues and technology
· Internal consistency
· Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society
Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society
Time Horizon : up to year 2030
Project : Duration :
TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea

16. Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Procedures
1st phase
2nd Phase
Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society
(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories
(Dec. 2003)
Future Technology Subjects and Delphi Survey
Analysis
(Aug. 2004)
3rd Phase
Future Social Systems Scenario Building
(Dec. 2004)

17. 10 sectors (based on key words)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)
Space & earth
Material  & manufacturing
Information and knowledge
Food & bio-resource
Life & health
Energy & environment
Safety & Securuty
Social Infrastructure
Management & innovation 
S&T and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Provide List of Future Technologies
Scenario

18. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Results
Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)
- Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues
- Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety)
Identify 761 future technology subjects
- 61% of them will realize between
- Korea is still lagging all future technology area
- Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area
- Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)
Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public
Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
Government took follow-up action quickly
 Future Strategic Technology

19. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology Initiative
Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results
Critical attributes of national strategic technology
Emerging
Disruptive
Converging
Strategic area where government should be involved

20. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Priority Setting Procedure
Future
Strategic
Tech.
3rd Technology
Foresight
Survey from
Industrial &
R&D Inst.
Overseas DB
Future Tech.
Candidate DB
(KISTEP)
Survey &
2nd Screening
1st Screening
(Expert Panel)

21. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology 21
Digital convergence
Smart computing
Nano and functional material
Economic Impact
Information security
Super efficient transportation
Bio-resource
Satellite
fusion
Cognitive science and humanoid robot
Culture contents
Regenerative medicine
Quality of Life
Public Need
Bio-safety & defense
Drug discovery & personalized medicine
Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation
Ubiquitous civil infrastructure
Hazardㆍdisaster forecast
Next generation nuclear energy and safety
Clean and renewable energy
Global observing system
Climate/weather forecasting
Marine territory management

22. Technology Roadmapping in Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Technology Roadmapping in Korea

23. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Brief History of TRM in Korea
Public Sector
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Roadmap
1st Phase( ~ ), 2rd Phase( ~ ), 3rd Phase( ~ ), 4th Phase( ~ )
Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.
MOST
National Technology Roadmap(2002)
MIC
u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)
Private Sector
Samsung Electronics
Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

24. KISTEP Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM : Approach
Analysis of Industrial Need visions Directions
49 Strategic Product/Functions Key Technologies NTRM
Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications
Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach
NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and
detailed TRM for chosen key technologies
Inter-Government CoordinationTaskForce
NSTC Office
KISTEP
Project Team
NTRM Head Council
Vision I
Committee
Vision II
Committee
Vision III
Committee
Vision IV
Committee
Vision V
Committee
TRM team A
TRM team B
TRM team C
………..
TRM team N

25. Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM by 5 Visions 1
Building an information-
knowledge-intelligence society 2
Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia 3
Advancing the E2 Frontier 4
Upgrading the Value
of Major Industries of Korea Today 5
Improving National Safety and Prestige

26. Any-device Communication
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere,
Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents &
Service
Ambient Intelligence

27. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Anytime,
Anywhere,
Any-device
Communication
Mobile & Wearable IT Device
Ubiquitous Network
Intelligent Computing
Digital Convergence
Innovation in
Contents &
Service
Ambient
Intelligence
Intelligent Medical System
Intelligent Transport System
Intelligent Building/Home
Intelligent Home Appliance
Intelligent Robot
Intelligent Man-Machine Interface
Knowledge/Information Security
Business Service
E-Commerce
Contents
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
Display Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance Technology
Home Network Technology
MEMS Technology
Art Intelligent Technology
Culture Original Form Restore Technology
Cyber Communication Technology
Game Engine Technology
Digital Contents Authoring Technology
Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization
Information Security Technology
Digital Information Design Technology
Information Search DBMS Technology
E-Finance Technology
E-marketplace Technology
Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology
Digital Signal Processing Technology
Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology
High Density Storage Technology
Intelligent Network Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Optical Internet Technology
Information-
Knowledge-
Society
Next Generation Information System Technology
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
Digital Broadcasting Technology
Vision
Direction of Development
Strategic products and Functions
Key Technologies

28. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions
Strategic Importance
Very Low
Low
Middle
High
Very High
Very
Economic
Impact
Intelligent Computing
(765 billion $ in 2004)
E-Commerce
(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)
Business Service
(157 trillion won in 2010)
Knowledge/Information Security
(30 billion $ from 2005)
Man-Machine
Interface Intelligence
(Creating high-value
-added,
Complex products
Intelligent Robot
(17 billion $ in 2005
Intelligent Building/Home
(15 trillion in 2010)
Intelligent Transport System
(425 billion $ in 2015)
Intelligent Medical System
(Creating new markets,
reducing medical costs)
Digital Convergence
(570 billion $ in 2004)
Ubiquitous Network
(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))
Intelligent Home Appliance
(360 billion $ in 2005)
Culture Contents
(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)
Mobile & Wearable
IT Device
(73.3 billion $ in 2005)
Potential
for success

29. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication
High
Competitiveness of
domestic technology
Medium
Low ■● ■◎
narrowband CDMA
modem
wideband CDMA modem ■●
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code ■●
High-speed packet modem ■●
Power control, Smart antenna,
Interference, SDR
Technology ▣◎
Fixed ATM/IP ■●
IP-based RAN ■●
IP-based RAN
with smart antenna ■●
High-speed adaptive
RAN ■●
Wireless IP core tech.
(QoS, Handoff,Resource management) ▣◎
Network
interworking(GW) ▣●
Homogeneous network
Integration
Active core network ■● ▣◎
DO/GPRS
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements ▣●
ALL-IP core network ■● ▣●
high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps ■●
Adhoc, Bluetooth ▣●
PAN
Product
2002
2007
2012
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
4G mobile comm.
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
■ ▣ □
high low
Importance
● basic research ⊙ international collaboration
◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing
R&D strategy

30. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company
AGTO : based in IBM GTO
 Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry
Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones
Exponential and Threshold
How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses
Understand Customer Challenges
Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company
Future Technology Center –Research Organization
Sectoral Technology Forecasting
Siemens : Picture of Future
Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

31. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Good signal for FTA
Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit”
More private companies have involved in foresight activity
More article about Future Technologies on newspaper
A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the government
Movement to form “National Strategic unit”
Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…

32. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Challenges
Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea
But there are several things to be addressed.
Capability to run TF (Facilitating)
Not many
Not enough experiences
Methodological Competence
Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better way to do?
What is the best combination of methods
Impact on Policy making
Some, but not Clear yet

33. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Thank you
Dr. Byeongwon Park  ☎