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Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning.

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Presentation on theme: "Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning."— Presentation transcript:

1 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006

2 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Koreas S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century.

3 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Past and Present of Koreas S&T World 8 th Power in S&T by 2025 SCI Paper 19,279(2004) 55% (since 2000) US Patents 4,428 34% (since 2000) R&D Budget 28,774(milliom US$ PPP) 56% (since 2000) New S&T Administration Since 2004 # of Researcher 156,220 FTE 44% (since 2000) Corporate Research Institutes 10,270(2004) 44% (since 2000) Technological Competitiveness 2 nd (IMD, 2005) 7 th (WEF, 2005)

4 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Government R&D in Korea MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture, Transportatio n,etc.) Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (05) MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation

5 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Organizational Structure Government R&D Related Organizational Structure President N S T C * Main Bodies of R&D ( Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc) *NSTC : National Science & Technology Council MOST ITEP Agencies KISTEP IITA OSTI KOSEF MOCIE Others MIC Vice Prime Ministry

6 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea HAN Project (G7) Dual Use Tech. Program MOST NRL Program 21C Frontier Program Nuclear Energy Development Program MOST National R&D Programs Basic Science Program Industrial Technology Program (Program for SMEs Key Tech. Program) Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program MOCIE Information & Telecommunication Technology Program MIC Dual Use Tech. Program MOD Health & Medical Technology Program MOHW Environmental Technology Program Key Environment Tech. Program MOEnv Agricultural Technology Program MOAF SMBA Small Business Innovation Research Academia Support Program MOE BK21 Program Creative Research Initiatives Space Tech. Development Program Next- generation growth engine program

7 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making BUT, Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years. Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years.

8 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty Increasing risk due to new Tech -Advances in NT, BT, ET -Fast-follower World leader Increasing risk due to new Tech -Advances in NT, BT, ET -Fast-follower World leader High oil price - 97% import of energy -Energy-intensive industry -(ex.steel Ind.) High oil price - 97% import of energy -Energy-intensive industry -(ex.steel Ind.) Fast Ageing society -fertility rate : 4.53(70) 1.08 (06) -Net decrease in population after 2020 Fast Ageing society -fertility rate : 4.53(70) 1.08 (06) -Net decrease in population after 2020 Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional FTA & economic Block -38.3% GDP dependence on Export -Rising China --Nutcraker Situation FTA & economic Block -38.3% GDP dependence on Export -Rising China --Nutcraker Situation North Korea

9 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making challenges in S&T area Weak Basic Research Increasing Technology Trade Deficits a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young "Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast. -Paul J.H. Schoemaker

10 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T? Foresight Activities

11 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making YEARDELPHIMIXEDPANEL/SCENARIO Netherlands st Germany 5th Japan OECD(Present) st US-Core Tech New Zealand, UN(present) st Korean TF(1994 ) 2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech France Japan/Germany 1st UKNetherlands 19956th Japan France-100 core Tech. 3rd US-critical Tech Japan Germany AU-ASTEC, Finalnd( ) Netherlands (Future Committee) Italy industrial forecasting ACUNU Millennium Project Nigeria, India, Philippines 1997 Spain-OPTIIreland 1998 Austria Germany US George Washington Univ. South Africa, New Zealand Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech. Norway, APEC EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands nd Korean TF(1999) Spain APEC Hungary-TEP 2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(present) Ireland, Italy 2000 Venezuela 2nd France-100 Core Tech. Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting China, Portugal, Brazil 20017th Japan Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia 2002 TurkeyBulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(present) th Japan(2004) China 3rd Korean TF(2004) EU(FP 6 (till 2006) UK (every year) Germany( every year), UN, OECD

12 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Foresight is booming everywhere in the world Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms. Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders. Especially in the science and technology related area. The need for priorities in science and technology No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.

13 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Currently On-going TF activity in Korea Type Sponsoring Ministry Facilitating organizationThematic Area or Project Title Time Horizon Methodology TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communica tion IITA (Institute for Information Technology Advancement) Foresight for Information Technology-2030Delphi NCA (National Computerization Agency) Ubiquitous Korea+15 yrsPanel TF (2006) Ministry of Health and Welfare KHIDI (Korea Health Industry Development Institute) Future Trends in Health care and Life Science +15 yrsDelphi TF (2006) Ministry of Environmen t KIEST (Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology) Future Trends in Environmental Technology +15 yrs Environment al Scanning Delphi TF (2006) Ministry of Science and Technology KISTEP (Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning) Thematic Foresight -Nanomaterial -Stem cell -Ubiquitous Computing +15 yrs Panel Scenario F The Presidential Office Presidential Committee on Education Innovation Future of Education in Korea -What we do right now? +15 yrsPanel TRM (2001- present) Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy KOTEF (Korea Industrial Technology Foundation) Technology Roadmap for - Material and Component - Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.) +10 yrsTRM Panel ST (2006) Ministry of Planning and Budget Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute) Vision Layout for government Budget Spending up to Panel

14 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Overview of the 3 rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001) Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP) Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2 nd Plan for )) 1 st TF ( ) and 2 nd TF( ) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP *STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute) 3 rd TF was carried out in by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.

15 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : Characteristics Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that may solve the future needs and issue Scenario writing for future society · Future prospect, needs/issues and technology · Internal consistency · Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society Time Horizon : up to year 2030 Project : Duration : TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea

16 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : Procedures Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society (4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories (Dec. 2003) Future Technology Subjects and Delphi Survey Analysis (Aug. 2004) Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec. 2004) 1 st phase 2 nd Phase 3 rd Phase

17 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels 10 sectors (based on key words) Space & earth Material & manufacturing Information and knowledge Food & bio-resource Life & health Energy & environment Safety & Securuty Social Infrastructure Management & innovation S&T and society/culture Delphi Survey Scenario Provide List of Future Technologies

18 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : Results Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight) - Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues - Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety) Identify 761 future technology subjects - 61% of them will realize between Korea is still lagging all future technology area - Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years) Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report Government took follow-up action quickly Future Strategic Technology

19 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology Initiative Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results Critical attributes of national strategic technology Emerging Disruptive Converging Strategic area where government should be involved

20 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Priority Setting Procedure Future Strategic Tech. 3 rd Technology Foresight Survey from Industrial & R&D Inst. Overseas DB Future Tech. Candidate DB (KISTEP) Survey & 2nd Screening 1 st Screening (Expert Panel)

21 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Future Strategic Technology 21 Global observing system Climate/weather forecasting Marine territory management Digital convergence Smart computing Nano and functional material Cognitive science and humanoid robot Culture contents Regenerative medicine Bio-safety & defense Drug discovery & personalized medicine Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation Public Need Quality of Life Economic Impact Ubiquitous civil infrastructure Hazard disaster forecast Next generation nuclear energy and safety Clean and renewable energy Information security Super efficient transportation Bio-resource Satellite fusion

22 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Technology Roadmapping in Korea

23 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Brief History of TRM in Korea Public Sector –MOCIE Industrial Technology Roadmap 1 st Phase( ~ ), 2rd Phase( ~ ), 3 rd Phase( ~ ), 4 th Phase( ~ ) Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones. –MOST National Technology Roadmap(2002) –MIC u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products) Private Sector –Samsung Electronics Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

24 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making NTRM : Approach NTRM Head Council KISTEP Project Team NSTC Office Vision I Committee Inter- Government Coordination TaskForce Vision II Committee Vision III Committee Vision V Committee TRM team ATRM team BTRM team CTRM team N ……….. Vision IV Committee Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM

25 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making NTRM by 5 Visions 1 Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society 2Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia 3Advancing the E 2 Frontier 4 Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today 5Improving National Safety and Prestige

26 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence

27 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

28 Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions Strategic Importance Very Low Low Middle High Very High Very Low Middle High Very High Economic Impact Intelligent Computing (765 billion $ in 2004) E-Commerce (28.7 trillion $ in 2010) Business Service (157 trillion won in 2010) Knowledge/Information Security (30 billion $ from 2005) Man-Machine Interface Intelligence (Creating high-value -added, Complex products Intelligent Robot (17 billion $ in 2005 Intelligent Building/Home (15 trillion in 2010) Intelligent Transport System (425 billion $ in 2015) Intelligent Medical System (Creating new markets, reducing medical costs) Digital Convergence (570 billion $ in 2004) Ubiquitous Network (2.03 trillion $ in 2005)) Intelligent Home Appliance (360 billion $ in 2005) Culture Contents (1.17 trillion $ in 2005) Mobile & Wearable IT Device (73.3 billion $ in 2005) High Middle Potential for success Low

29 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication 2002 wideband CDMA modem narrowband CDMA modem 2012 High-speed packet modem Technology 2007 Product QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR IP-based RANFixed ATM/IP Network interworking(GW) Cdma20001x EV system Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV W-CDMA system/ HSDPA Wireless IP core tech. (QoS, Handoff,Resource management) Homogeneous network Integration ALL-IP core network DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements Adhoc, BluetoothPAN HMI/Hot Spot system 2G cellular system 4G mobile comm. High-speed adaptive RAN Active core network IP-based RAN with smart antenna high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps High Medium Low Competitiveness of domestic technology high low Importance basic research international collaboration applied research Outsourcing R&D strategy

30 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company AGTO : based in IBM GTO Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry –Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones –Exponential and Threshold –How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses –Understand Customer Challenges Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company Future Technology Center –Research Organization Sectoral Technology Forecasting Siemens : Picture of Future Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

31 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Good signal for FTA Each Ministry establishes a separate Future Strategic Unit More private companies have involved in foresight activity More article about Future Technologies on newspaper A lot of debates underway on vision 2030 by the government Movement to form National Strategic unit Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…

32 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Challenges Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea But there are several things to be addressed. Capability to run TF (Facilitating) –Not many –Not enough experiences Methodological Competence –Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better way to do? –What is the best combination of methods Impact on Policy making –Some, but not Clear yet

33 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Dr. Byeongwon Park Thank you


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