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Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making

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Presentation on theme: "Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making"— Presentation transcript:

1 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning

2 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century.

3 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Past and Present of Korea’s S&T World 8th Power in S&T by 2025 SCI Paper 19,279(2004) 55% (since 2000) US Patents 4,428 34% (since 2000) R&D Budget 28,774(milliom US$ PPP) 56% (since 2000) New S&T Administration Since 2004 # of Researcher 156,220 FTE 44% (since 2000) Corporate Research Institutes 10,270(2004) Technological Competitiveness 2nd (IMD, 2005) 7th(WEF, 2005) Rapid Progress all the area in S&T related activity

4 Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Government R&D in Korea Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05) MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture, Transportation,etc.) MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology

5 President N S T C * OSTI MOCIE MIC Others
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Government R&D Related Organizational Structure President N S T C * MOST Vice Prime Ministry OSTI MOCIE MIC Others KISTEP ITEP KOSEF Agencies IITA Main Bodies of R&D (Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc) *NSTC : National Science & Technology Council

6 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2004 HAN Project (G7) Dual Use Tech. Program Space Tech. Development Program MOST MOST National R&D Programs Creative Research Initiatives NRL Program 21C Frontier Program Nuclear Energy Development Program Next-generation growth engine program Basic Science Program MOCIE Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program) Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program MIC Information & Telecommunication Technology Program MOD Dual Use Tech. Program MOHW Health & Medical Technology Program MOEnv Environmental Technology Program Key Environment Tech. Program MOAF Agricultural Technology Program SMBA Small Business Innovation Research MOE Academia Support Program BK21 Program

7 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
BUT, Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years.

8 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty Increasing risk due to new Tech Advances in NT, BT, ET Fast-follower  World leader High oil price - 97% import of energy Energy-intensive industry (ex.steel Ind.) Fast Ageing society -fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06) -Net decrease in population after 2020 Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional North Korea FTA & economic Block 38.3% GDP dependence on Export Rising China -Nutcraker Situation

9 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
challenges in S&T area Weak Basic Research Increasing Technology Trade Deficits a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young "Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast.“ -Paul J.H. Schoemaker

10 How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T? Foresight Activities

11 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO 1970- 1989 Netherlands 1990 1st Germany 5th Japan OECD(→Present) 1991 1st US-Core Tech. 1992 New Zealand, UN(→present) 1993 1st Korean TF(→1994) 2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech. 1994 France Japan/Germany 1st UK 1995 6th Japan France-100 core Tech. 3rd US-critical Tech. 1996 Japan Germany AU-ASTEC, Finalnd( ) Netherlands (Future Committee) Italy industrial forecasting ACUNU Millennium Project Nigeria, India, Philippines 1997 Spain-OPTI Ireland 1998 Austria US George Washington Univ. South Africa, New Zealand Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech. Norway, APEC EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands 1999 2nd Korean TF(→1999) Spain APEC Hungary-TEP 2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present) Ireland, Italy 2000 Venezuela 2nd France-100 Core Tech. Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting China, Portugal, Brazil 2001 7th Japan Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia 2002 Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present) 8th Japan(→2004) China  3rd Korean TF(→2004) EU(FP 6 →(till 2006) UK (every year) Germany( every year), UN, OECD

12 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms. Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders. Especially in the science and technology related area. The need for priorities in science and technology No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.

13 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea Type Sponsoring Ministry Facilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time Horizon Methodology TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication IITA (Institute for Information Technology Advancement) Foresight for Information Technology -2030 Delphi NCA (National Computerization Agency) Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel Ministry of Health and Welfare KHIDI (Korea Health Industry Development Institute) Future Trends in Health care and Life Science Ministry of Environment KIEST (Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology) Future Trends in Environmental Technology Environmental Scanning Ministry of Science and Technology KISTEP (Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning) Thematic Foresight -Nanomaterial -Stem cell -Ubiquitous Computing Scenario F The Presidential Office Presidential Committee on Education Innovation Future of Education in Korea -What we do right now? TRM (2001-present) Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy KOTEF (Korea Industrial Technology Foundation) Technology Roadmap for - Material and Component - Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.) +10 yrs TRM Panel ST Ministry of Planning and Budget Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute) Vision 2030 - Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030

14 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001) Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP) Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for ))  1st TF ( ) and 2nd TF( ) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP *STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)  3rd TF was carried out in by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.

15 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Characteristics Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that may solve the future needs and issue Scenario writing for future society · Future prospect, needs/issues and technology · Internal consistency · Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society Time Horizon : up to year 2030 Project : Duration : TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea

16 Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making 3rd Korean TF : Procedures 1st phase 2nd Phase Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society (4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories (Dec. 2003) Future Technology Subjects and Delphi Survey Analysis (Aug. 2004) 3rd Phase Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec. 2004)

17 10 sectors (based on key words)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels 10 sectors (based on key words) Space & earth Material  & manufacturing Information and knowledge Food & bio-resource Life & health Energy & environment Safety & Securuty Social Infrastructure Management & innovation  S&T and society/culture Delphi Survey Provide List of Future Technologies Scenario

18 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Results Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight) - Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues - Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety) Identify 761 future technology subjects - 61% of them will realize between - Korea is still lagging all future technology area - Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years) Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report Government took follow-up action quickly  Future Strategic Technology

19 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology Initiative Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results Critical attributes of national strategic technology Emerging Disruptive Converging Strategic area where government should be involved

20 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Priority Setting Procedure Future Strategic Tech. 3rd Technology Foresight Survey from Industrial & R&D Inst. Overseas DB Future Tech. Candidate DB (KISTEP) Survey & 2nd Screening 1st Screening (Expert Panel)

21 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology 21 Digital convergence Smart computing Nano and functional material Economic Impact Information security Super efficient transportation Bio-resource Satellite fusion Cognitive science and humanoid robot Culture contents Regenerative medicine Quality of Life Public Need Bio-safety & defense Drug discovery & personalized medicine Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation Ubiquitous civil infrastructure Hazardㆍdisaster forecast Next generation nuclear energy and safety Clean and renewable energy Global observing system Climate/weather forecasting Marine territory management

22 Technology Roadmapping in Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Technology Roadmapping in Korea

23 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Brief History of TRM in Korea Public Sector MOCIE Industrial Technology Roadmap 1st Phase( ~ ), 2rd Phase( ~ ), 3rd Phase( ~ ), 4th Phase( ~ ) Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones. MOST National Technology Roadmap(2002) MIC u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products) Private Sector Samsung Electronics Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

24 KISTEP Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM : Approach Analysis of Industrial Need visions Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions Key Technologies NTRM Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies Inter-Government CoordinationTaskForce NSTC Office KISTEP Project Team NTRM Head Council Vision I Committee Vision II Committee Vision III Committee Vision IV Committee Vision V Committee TRM team A TRM team B TRM team C ……….. TRM team N

25 Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making NTRM by 5 Visions 1 Building an information- knowledge-intelligence society 2 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia 3 Advancing the E2 Frontier 4 Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today 5 Improving National Safety and Prestige

26 Any-device Communication
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence

27 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Mobile & Wearable IT Device Ubiquitous Network Intelligent Computing Digital Convergence Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence Intelligent Medical System Intelligent Transport System Intelligent Building/Home Intelligent Home Appliance Intelligent Robot Intelligent Man-Machine Interface Knowledge/Information Security Business Service E-Commerce Contents Bio-Diagnosis Technology Display Technology Intelligent Home Appliance Technology Home Network Technology MEMS Technology Art Intelligent Technology Culture Original Form Restore Technology Cyber Communication Technology Game Engine Technology Digital Contents Authoring Technology Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization Information Security Technology Digital Information Design Technology Information Search DBMS Technology E-Finance Technology E-marketplace Technology Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology Digital Signal Processing Technology Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology High Density Storage Technology Intelligent Network Technology New Semiconductor Device Technology Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology Optical Internet Technology Information- Knowledge- Society Next Generation Information System Technology S/W Standard/Design/Reuse Digital Broadcasting Technology Vision Direction of Development Strategic products and Functions Key Technologies

28 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions Strategic Importance Very Low Low Middle High Very High Very Economic Impact Intelligent Computing (765 billion $ in 2004) E-Commerce (28.7 trillion $ in 2010) Business Service (157 trillion won in 2010) Knowledge/Information Security (30 billion $ from 2005) Man-Machine Interface Intelligence (Creating high-value -added, Complex products Intelligent Robot (17 billion $ in 2005 Intelligent Building/Home (15 trillion in 2010) Intelligent Transport System (425 billion $ in 2015) Intelligent Medical System (Creating new markets, reducing medical costs) Digital Convergence (570 billion $ in 2004) Ubiquitous Network (2.03 trillion $ in 2005)) Intelligent Home Appliance (360 billion $ in 2005) Culture Contents (1.17 trillion $ in 2005) Mobile & Wearable IT Device (73.3 billion $ in 2005) Potential for success

29 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication High Competitiveness of domestic technology Medium Low ■● ■◎ narrowband CDMA modem wideband CDMA modem ■● QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code ■● High-speed packet modem ■● Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR Technology ▣◎ Fixed ATM/IP ■● IP-based RAN ■● IP-based RAN with smart antenna ■● High-speed adaptive RAN ■● Wireless IP core tech. (QoS, Handoff,Resource management) ▣◎ Network interworking(GW) ▣● Homogeneous network Integration Active core network ■● ▣◎ DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements ▣● ALL-IP core network ■● ▣● high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps ■● Adhoc, Bluetooth ▣● PAN Product 2002 2007 2012 2G cellular system HMI/Hot Spot system Cdma20001x EV system 4G mobile comm. Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV W-CDMA system/ HSDPA ■ ▣ □ high low Importance ● basic research ⊙ international collaboration ◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing R&D strategy

30 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company AGTO : based in IBM GTO  Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones Exponential and Threshold How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses Understand Customer Challenges Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company Future Technology Center –Research Organization Sectoral Technology Forecasting Siemens : Picture of Future Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

31 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Good signal for FTA Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit” More private companies have involved in foresight activity More article about Future Technologies on newspaper A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the government Movement to form “National Strategic unit” Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…

32 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Challenges Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea But there are several things to be addressed. Capability to run TF (Facilitating) Not many Not enough experiences Methodological Competence Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better way to do? What is the best combination of methods Impact on Policy making Some, but not Clear yet

33 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Thank you Dr. Byeongwon Park

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