1. www.coford.ie

2. Overview Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007 Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007 National system National system Disaggregating of forest land areas Disaggregating of forest land areas Harvests (KP I(A1.2)) Harvests (KP I(A1.2)) Young age structure Young age structure Soils: LUC and historic data Soils: LUC and historic data LULUCF KP LULUCF KP

3. Total 697,750 ha (10 %) 252,000 KP a3.3 (36 %) Young age structure Managed 50 % on peat land 40 % mixed forest National Forest status 28 % potentially thinned by end 2012 But only 24 % of affor stands suitable for thinning are thinned

4. 17,423 primary plots (LUC) ~1800 permanent sample forest plots (400ha) Detect national volume @ 95% conf. National forest inventory (Approach 3)

5. Biomass Pools (A) Gain loss method (A) Gain loss method Interpolation (annual) Interpolation (annual) (B) Stock difference method (B) Stock difference method Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012) Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012) Time C 15 A B But sum A B (t5 - t1)

6. Single tree models y is DBH or H increment usually on a 5 year basis 1)SIZE is individual tree size and vigour (DBH or H) 2)COMP is competitive effects (status in relation to neighbouring trees) 3) SITE (plot specific variables) Calibrated using Coillte data (2943 plots, measured every 5 to 10 years) DBH growth (cm/year) MODEL Coillte obs. data

7. Capturing harvests and deforestation ( C L ) NFI sample plots NFI sample plots Coillte data from post harvest inventories Coillte data from post harvest inventories Private sector (felling licences) Private sector (felling licences) NFI data Growth simulator Growth modifier Biomass pools Harvest disturbance Largest uncertainty associated with management assumption Thinning effects amount of timber harvested (immediate source) size distribution and growth competition

8. Disaggregating areas Increase uncertainty (area) Increase uncertainty (area) Sub categories are not constant with time Sub categories are not constant with time Transparency v.s. uncertainty Transparency v.s. uncertainty

9. KP1(A1.2) LULUCF reported net of harvest LULUCF reported net of harvest National harvest volume National harvest volume KP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areas KP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areas From NFI sub-sample From NFI sub-sample Gives stand info (BA, vol/ha) Gives stand info (BA, vol/ha) How do we apply this to single tree model How do we apply this to single tree model Effects assortment Effects assortment Growth modifiers (competition) Growth modifiers (competition) Assumptions on thinning type Assumptions on thinning type PDF simulation to remove harvested trees PDF simulation to remove harvested trees Increase uncertainty Increase uncertainty

10. Young forests 50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm 50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm Biomass algorithms Biomass algorithms National research National research Not all species research on going Not all species research on going Data base (e.g. E21) Data base (e.g. E21) Uncertainty not documented or well defined Uncertainty not documented or well defined Growth models Growth models No data < 5cm DBH No data < 5cm DBH Extrapolate Extrapolate May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012) May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012)

11. Soils Soils 90% of forest C stock Soils 90% of forest C stock Soils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUC Soils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUC i.e. steady state in older forests i.e. steady state in older forests Soil C stock change Soil C stock change Soil type Soil type Peat emission factor Peat emission factor Mineral Mineral Flu = Previous land use Flu = Previous land use FMG = Management FMG = Management

12. GIS sources Soil type Productivity Topography Climate LUPS IFORIS CORINE Soil C for LULUCF CARBWARE Soil C change factors Research Ref C stocks for:

13. Mineral Soils ForestC Michael Wellock, Christina LaPerle, and Ger Kiely Forest C % Organic 0-10 cm 28.3 10-2030.8 Mineral 6.4 10-203.9 20-303.7PairC%Organic 13.5 10-2011.8 Mineral 4.5 10-203.7 20-303.4 Forest Pair Site: Millstreet, Co. Cork Preliminary results suggest podzols CSOM ~ 0.86 t C/Ha/yr

14. Detecting LUC NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?) NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?) CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions) CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions) Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year) Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year) Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha) Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha) 63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size 63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils CORINE 80% CORINE 80% High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 % High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 % Black, OBrien, Twomey, Redmond, Barret, in press)

15. GMES CORINE 2006 (1ha) But misclassification issues But misclassification issues Based on comparison with GIS land cover cover national data Based on comparison with GIS land cover cover national data 30 % mismatch 30 % mismatch

16. Assimilation of LULUCF data Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4 Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4 Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3 Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3 Due to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areas Due to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areas 2008 to 2012 KP 3.3 and F-L (+16 % difference) KP 3.4 and F-F (-16 %)