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Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences www.slu.se Uncertainty and verification of soil organic carbon change estimates Erik Karltun and Carina Ortiz.

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Presentation on theme: "Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences www.slu.se Uncertainty and verification of soil organic carbon change estimates Erik Karltun and Carina Ortiz."— Presentation transcript:

1 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uncertainty and verification of soil organic carbon change estimates Erik Karltun and Carina Ortiz Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

2 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Carbon in Swedish soils -The carbon stock of Swedish forest soils estimated at 2000 Mton carbon (DOM and SOC) -An annual change of 1 equates to 2 Mton C or 7 Mton CO 2, i.e. > 10% of Swedish national GHG emissions -Soils are both sinks and sources -Reporting needs monitoring and verification – do we have appropriate tools?

3 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Integrated with the NFI Total number of sampled plots c.4500 DOM and SOC sampled separately Soil type according to World Reference Base Organic soil=Histosols Forest Soil Inventory

4 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences B hor sampled BC sampled 50 cm 0 cm DOM C sampled Interpol. E hor.

5 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences nd Soil Survey3 rd Soil SurveyNo data Extrapol. Sampled UNFCCC-Kyoto reporting ResampledInterpolated Data Reporting timeline

6 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Two views on soil carbon change

7 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Models – an alternative way -Carbon pools and carbon pool changes was estimated using to conceptually different dynamic carbon models, Q and Yasso07 -Carbon pool development simulated from 1926 using climate and litter input data -Uncertainty of model output determined by parameter uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo simulation methodology

8 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Stående skogsvolym – m 3 Källa: Riksskogstaxeringen, SLU Standing forest volume

9 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

10 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

11 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Conclusions -Small changes in the soil pool can have a considerable impact on the national GHG balance -Over a timeperiod of more than 10 years both models and measurement indicate that mineral soil is a sink but uncertainty is high -The possibility to monitor and verify small changes is limited due to method uncertainty -Soils seem to respond slowly to increase in forest biomass -Combination of various approaches (measurements, models valuable) -Uncertainty reporting must be improved – todays reporting of uncertainty is not relevant to LULUCF


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