1. 1 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Sustainable development A challenge for European research Brussels, 26-28 May 2009 Enerdata Château, Bertrand

2. 2 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Energy, life-styles and behaviours: a key issue for shaping sustainable societies, addressed in EU research projects èVLEEM (Very Long Term Energy Environment Model; www.VLEEM.org) : sustainable energy systems up to 2100 è WETO-H2 (World Energy Technology Outlook-Hydrogen) : reference European energy system up to 2050 and strategies to mitigate drastically GHG emissions

3. 3 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Long term scenarios of VLEEM and WETO-H2 give preliminary insights in behaviours and sustainability èCurrent life-styles in ICs are not sustainable on a worldwide scale èChanges in the energy technology paradigm are unavoidable in the next decades, and will impact life-styles èTo be sustainable, life-styles have to turn towards low energy use èRenewables are more appealing with low energy life-styles

4. 4 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Keys for understanding long term behavioural changes èLife-styles are rather stable within an age class, but change with generations. It is a slow process which starts at school èIn most ICs today and DCs tomorrow, population is aging and retired people life-styles will be increasingly dominant èAnother world trend: more singles and two persons households, with more energy intensive life styles

5. 5 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? BAU drives unsustainable behaviours èEconomic growth and rising income increase the value of time uPeople substitute equipment and energy for their time –Less time used in the food function, but a fast increasing energy cost –In the US, up to 23% of total energy demand for food function uPeople move faster and further, within a constant time budget –Higher the value of time, higher the speed necessary to maximize the consumption utility within a constant time-budget, higher the km –35 km/h in Europe, 74 km/h in the US, 3 km/h in China –0.9 toe/pers in Europe, 2.1 toe/pers in the US, 0.06 toe/pers in China

6. 6 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? BAU drives unsustainable behaviours èUrban sprawl is often a consequence of economic development in BAU uPeople wish to move to houses in low density areas, and can do it thanks to cars –Single family houses and cars are much more energy intensive –In Paris, energy ranges from 0.4 toe/cap (downtown) to 0.75 (2 nd ring) u Low density makes pubic transport and energy networks very costly and inefficient

7. 7 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of social choices èlife-styles and energy: it is indeed a mater of technology, but it is also a mater of individual preferences and social choices uSimilar technologies in ICs, but large spectrum in energy consumption pattern for similar GDP/cap: life styles are not just determined by wealth uIndividual values, representations and preferences are strongly determined by the cultural heritage and the social context, mainly through school and education: life-styles can also be « oriented »

8. 8 Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours? Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of social choices èSocial preferences may drive technology and related life-styles towards sustainability uThanks to PV, passive solar and electric cars, urban sprawl may become sustainable uTGV shows that high speed doesnt mean necessarily plane u China and others are experimenting new urban areas carbon free

9. 9 9 Thank you for your attention www. enerdata.fr Until when? Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or unsustainable social behaviours?