1. 1 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology in European Countries Stefanie Mauksch, Henning Engelke, Inga-Lena Darkow, Heiko von der Gracht CEFU - Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management EBS Business School Wiesbaden, Germany The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. 2 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Introduction What is Social Business? The origin of the idea of social business was really quite simple: Whenever I wanted to deal with a social or economic problem, I tried to solve the problem by creating a social business around it. Over time I became convinced that it is an excellent way to address social and economic problems, but one that is missing in the framework of economic theory. I strongly feel that it should be included. The missing piece in the theoretical framework is what I call social business. Prof. Muhammad Yunus Founder of Grameen Bank and Nobel Peace Price Laureate

3. 3 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Introduction Muhammad Yunus Social Business Principles 1.Tackling of social problems 2.Financial and economic sustainability 3.Repayment of investions, but no repayment of dividends 4.Profit stays within the company for expansion and improvement 5.Ecological responsible behaviour 6.Market-based loans 7.Do it with joy!

4. 4 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Introduction Example: Grameen Danone Foods Company: Joint Venture between Grameen and Danone Objective:supplying nutritious food to poor children of Bangladesh Formation: 2006 in Bangladesh Product: Yoghurt Shakti Doi Price: 80g cup for 8/12 Taka Production:over 10,000 kilos per year Distribution: Grameen Borrowers

5. 5 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology The Process: From Theses to Scenarios Research Steps

6. 6 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology The Process: From Theses to Scenarios Literature Review Most approaches introduce the topic and elaborate categories for the definition of social business Rare empirical research; most work with case studies None of the studies employs statistical analyses None develops a futures perspective Findings Compares social enterprises across seven regions and countries based on social origins theory and identifies different concepts and contexts 2010Kerlin Compares contrasting American and European conceptions of social enterprise through an extensive literature review 2006 Kerlin Presents case study: Grameen Danone Foods and examines potential uplift through social business2009Ghalib, Hossain, & Arun Analyses public policies introduced in several European countries and logic of finance social enterprises 2010 Defourney & Nyssens Research DetailYearAuthors Social Business Presents social business as new business model Example-driven approach; names five criteria of successful social business 2010Yunus, Moingeon, & Lehmann-Ortaga Analyses socioeconomic performance of work-integration social enterprises Examines origins, nature and objectives of resources used by social enterprises 2005 Vidal

7. 7 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology The Process: From Theses to Scenarios Real – Time Delphi Anonymous, systematic, multi-level survey procedure Feedback of expert group opinions is provided after each round Anonymous, systematic, multi-level survey procedure Feedback of expert group opinions is provided after each round Delphi Real – Time Delphi Web-based platform where calculations of group assessments are carried out immediately 16 Theses | 1.200 Arguments

8. 8 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology The Process: From Theses to Scenarios The Experts

9. 9 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Results Main Topics 1. Social Business reflects the zeitgeist: Change in vales as most important topic 2. Steady but sustainable: Social Business fills supply gaps 3. Standards as enablers 4. Social Entrepreneurship vs. Welfare State 5. Social Business in the economic system – Entrepreneurs instead of do-gooder 6. First choice of employees: Socially responsible companies 7. Mainly applicable to the social services sector

10. 10 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Results Main Topics 1.Establishment of Standards for Social Businesses 2.Social Business engagement will lead to identification of employees with their company 3.Social Business will be part of education offers

11. 11 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Results Clustered Future Projections – Strategic Map T1: Economic stabilization T2: Countercyclical tendency T3: Competitiveness T4: Consumers buying behaviour T5: Profitability/Survival T6: Investors investment behaviour T7: Employee identification T8: Industry sectors T9: Establishment of standards T10: Change in values T11: Regionalization of the economy T12: Social problem-solving potential T13: Shifts in motivation T14: Consumers buying behaviour T15: Education and training T16: Reduction of CO2-emission T12 T14 T8 T4 T15 T7 T9 T5 T10 T11 T1 T16 T13 T3 30 4050607080 2,0 3,0 4,0 Expected Probabilities Impact on German economy T6 surprises eventualities expectations Red: dissent; IQR >= 20 Blue: consent < 20

12. 12 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Results Main Arguments

13. 13 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Social Business Scenarios for 2030 The Social Guardian Exploding social costs and extremely high taxes All private suppliers replaced by publicly subsidized organizations State cares for the old and the young

14. 14 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Social Business Scenarios for 2030 The Social Paradise Establishment of innovative forms of corporate organizations Supply of affordable social services has improved Competition and market principles in the Third sector

15. 15 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Social Business Scenarios for 2030 Social Fallow Social market economy has broken down Donations at an all- time low and social services solely covered by private corporations Two-class society

16. 16 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Social Business Scenarios for 2030 Social Capitalism Social sector dominated by free market economy Social businesses are more sucessful than traditional ones Social businesses are forced to remain competitive

17. 17 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology Research Team Stefanie Mauksch Internal Research Assistant Stefanie.mauksch@ebs.edu + 49 611 7102 2108 Henning Engelke External Research Assistant Henning.engelke@ebs.edu + 49 611 7102 2100 Dr. Heiko von der Gracht Managing Director Heiko.vondergracht@ebs.edu + 49 611 7102 2100 Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management www.ebs.edu/futurestudies Dr. Inga-Lena Darkow Research Director Inga-lena.darkow@ebs.edu + 49 611 7102 2100

18. 18 Social Business as Future Institutional Technology References Defourny, J., & Nyssens, M. (2010). Social enterprise in Europe: At the crossroads of market, public policies and third sector. Policy and Society, 29(3), 231-242. doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.polsoc.2010.07.002 Ghalib, A., Hossain, F., & Arun, T. (2009). Social Responsibility, Business Strategy and Development: The Case of Grameen-Danone Foods Limited. [Article]. Australasian Accounting Business & Finance Journal, 3(4), 1-14. Kerlin, J. (2006). Social Enterprise in the United States and Europe: Understanding and Learning from the Differences. Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, 17(3), 246-262. doi: 10.1007/s11266-006-9016-2 Kerlin, J. (2010). A Comparative Analysis of the Global Emergence of Social Enterprise. Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, 21(2), 162-179. doi: 10.1007/s11266- 010-9126-8 Vidal, I. (2005). Social Enterprise and Social Inclusion: Social Enterprises in the Sphere of Work Integration. [Article]. International Journal of Public Administration, 28(9/10), 807-825. doi: 10.1081/pad-200067347 Yunus, M., Moingeon, B., & Lehmann-Ortega, L. (2010). Building Social Business Models: Lessons from the Grameen Experience. Long Range Planning, 43(2-3), 308-325. doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.lrp.2009.12.005

19. 19 Mission Create the future together Center for Futures Studies Research and Knowledge Management Research Achievements Network Part of EBS Network with 180 partner universities and 200 business partners worldwide Anchored in the Foresight-Community: Network for Future Studies Research, European Foresight Network, World Future Society, Oxford Scenario Network, EIRAC Present in emerging markets (Russia, India and China) www.ebs.edu/smi/futurestudies.html Key Aspects To pursue scientifically-established research in Futures Studies and manage its quality To generate futures knowledge to support decision-making processes on governmental, economic and scientific issues To establish Futures Studies research as an academic discipline / strategic instrument in business practice Contract research with business partners (futures studies, tool development) Scenario transfer: turn research results into strategy Collaborate in public sector research projects High diversity in team (mix of expertise) Methodical and professional competence Scenario and Delphi Analyses Roadmapping & Backcasting Early Warning and Risk Management Wildcard Analyses Futures Studies Workshops Method Integration (Scenario-Toolbox) Timeframe Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Center for Futures Studies. Shaping the future together! Methodological Lead Social Business as Future Institutional Technology