1. Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructure Oleg Anisimov, Svetlana Reneva, Vasiliy Kokorev, Julia Strelchenko State Hydrological Institute St.Petersburg, Russia

2. Permafrost occupies more than 60% of Russia

3. Key concerns associated with thawing permafrost Permafrost and global climate: potential feedback through methane emissionPermafrost and global climate: potential feedback through methane emission CH 4 Water Aerobic Permafrost Threats to ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, geopolitical issuesThreats to ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, geopolitical issues Vicinity of Yakytsk,2008. Photo: T.Maksimov Permafrost and economy of the North: impacts on the infrastructurePermafrost and economy of the North: impacts on the infrastructure Baikal-Amur main track. Photo: D.Drozdov

4. Consecutive stages of ground subsidence leading to forest damage. Uneven soil subsidence and erosion due to thawing permafrost severely affect northern landscapes and destroy forests (lower photo), and expose organic- rich Yedoma sediments (upper photo). Calving permafrost blocks and erosion along the coasts of Russian Arctic seas lead up to 30 km 2 /y land loss Eroding coastline of East-Siberian sea. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008 Vicinity of Yakytsk. Yedoma. Lower Kolyma river. Photo: Vladimir Romanovskiy Photo: Trofim Maksimov, 2008

5. Impacts of thawing permafrost on constructions Yakutsk, July 2006. City (1999 survey) % of damaged buildings Norilsk10% Tiksi22% Dudinka55% Dikson35% Pevek, Amderma50% Chita60% Vorkuta80% City Increase of permafrost-related accidents, % per 10 years in 1980-2000. Norilsk42% Yakutsk61% Amderma90% Building in Vorkuta, photo: D.Streletskiy ACIA, 2005

6. Facilities of Bykov Mys village, Laptev sea coast, affected by coast retreat and thawing permafrost. Baikal-Amur main track. Weather Station “Tien Shan”, damaged due to ice melt. Tien Shan, Central Asia, 3614 m ASL Photo: Sergei Marchenko, September 2009 Photo: Dmitriy Drozdov, 2008 Administrative building in Yakutsk, 2008. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008 Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2009

7. Documented destructive impacts of thawing permafrost V. Grebenetz and Ye. Dmitriev, 2008

8. vegetation Active layer Organic layer Snow ATMOSPHERE Permafrost А org А sn А veg АaАa h sn h veg z org ALD ТaТa Т veg Т sn Т org Т AL ТpТp 0 Permafrost model Air temperature, 0 C -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 Air temperature amplitude, 0 C 18 20 22 24 26 28 Active-layer thickness, m 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Conventional permafrost modeling Input: gridded climate data

9. ALT, m 0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0+ Conventional permafrost modeling Conventional permafrost models predict permafrost parameters, i.e. ALT, soil temperature, under current and projected climate. ALT, baseline (1990-2000) ALT, 2050 projection based on 21 GCM ensemble under A2 emission scenario

10. Permafrost hazard index, I g I g = k (1+S) (z 2 – z 1 ) C w / z 1 Z i – maximum summer thaw depth under the modern (index 1) and projected for the future (index 2) climate, C w -volumetric ground ice content, S - soil salinity, K - constant scaling factor. Anisimov, Reneva 2006 Nelson, Anisimov, Shiklomanov, 2001, 2002

11. CGCM2 ECHAM4 GFDL-R30 HadCM3 CSM-1.4 Permafrost hazard index, 2050 projections lowmoderatehigh Anisimov et al., 2009

12. Uncertainties and probabilities…

13. Active layer thickness 50 30 см 70 90 110 130 Talik R24, Bolvansky R2, Ayach-Yakha R23, Talnik R1, Nadym R4, Parisento, R3 Organic layer thickness 3030505070709090130150150 Small-scale random variations over space

14. Probabilistic ALT mapping Probability scale 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ALT range <0.5 m 0.5 - 0.8 m 0.8 - 1.4 m 1.4 - 2.0 m 3030505070709090130150150

15. Implications for cold region engineering

16. -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 2050, org=20 cm 2050, bare ground 2000, bare ground 2000, org=20cm Ground temperature, 0 C -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 Design strength Design safety factor (99%) Implications in engineering

17. Acknowledgement Support for this UK-Russia research comes from the Foreign Commonwealth strategic programme fund