1. Perspectives of the Northern Sea Routes in the 21st century from model simulations Vyacheslav Khon 1,2, Igor Mokhov 1, Mojib Latif 3, Vladimir Semenov 1,3, Wonsun Park 3 khon@ifaran.ru, vsemenov@ifm-geomar.de (1) A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (Moscow) (2) Institute of Geosciences, University of Kiel (3) Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR) TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

2. Objectives To estimate navigation season length along the Northern Sea Route from satellite data and model simulations To assess consequences of climatic changes for the economical benefit and perspective of the Arctic transport systems in the 21st century TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

3. Changes of September Arctic sea ice extent (1979-2008) TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

4. Observations Satellite data (SMMR-SSM/I) Sea-ice concentration, daily data 25x25 km (1979- 2007) IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Models anthropogenic scenario SRES-A1B Sea-ice concentration, daily data (1900-2100) To determine the current changes in the Arctic sea ice cover we used satellite data for the sea ice concentration at high spatial (25-km grid) and temporary (daily) resolution during the last 30 years. To estimate the possible changes in the Arctic basin in the 21st century we analyzed results of simulations with the IPCC-AR4 ensemble of global climate models. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

5. IPCC-AR4 Global Climate Models TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

6. Long-term means and changes of the ice season length along the NSR (1980-1999): observations and model simulations TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

7. Ice season length (days) simulated by global climate models (1980-1999) TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

8. Ice season length (days) averaged over selected ‘best’ models and by satellite data (1980-1999) Satellite dataMulti-model mean TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

9. Changes of sea ice season length (days): satellite data in comparison to multi-model simulations (1998-2007 relative to 1979-1988) Satellite dataMulti-model mean TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

10. Ice season length changes by the end of the 21 st century: multi-model average for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 Annual meanDecember-MayJune-November Change of the ice season length (months) TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

11. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Navigation season length along the NSR and NWP from satellites and climate models (A1B scenario) Khon et al. 2009 Soft criterion

12. Navigation season length along the NSR from satellites and the ‘best’ climate model HadGEM1 (A1B scenario) 50% ice concentration30% ice concentration TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Rigid criterion

13. Economical aspects The increase of marine navigation season may significantly reduce expenses, shorten mean shipping time and diminish the risks. Increased reliability and decreased transit traffic cost may significantly raise a commercial attraction of the Arctic transportation (compared to the Suez or Panama Canals). TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

14. Freight rate for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (40,000 DWT container ship) as a function of the sea ice extent in the NSR sector (30E-190E; 60N-90N) Linear regression coefficient ≈ 3$/(t 10 6 km 2 ) TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

15. Monthly (dashed) and annual (solid) mean freight rates for the Europe-Asia transit through the NSR (normalized to SC transit rate) from multi-model simulations with A1B scenario TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

16. The multi-model means over selected ‘best’ models for the present climate are in a good agreement with observations. Simulations show prolongation of the NSR navigation season with about 4-5 months of free passage by the end of 21st century according to A1B scenario. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden Conclusions A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

17. Economical benefit from the Arctic transportation may become competitive to the traditional Europe-Asia routes through the Suez or Panama Canals by the middle of the 21st century According to the model estimates, the year-round transit cost from western Europe to the Far East through the NSR may be lower by 15% in comparison with transit through the Suez Canal by the end of the 21st century To make use of the NSR potential, however, a considerable modernization of the Arctic transport system and construction of new ice reinforced container ships is required. Conclusions TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

18. Khon, V.C., I.I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V.A. Semenov, and W. Park (2009) Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the 21st century, Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2 (published on-line). Mokhov, I.I., V.C. Khon, and E. Roeckner (2007) Variations in the ice cover of the Arctic Basin in the 21st century based on model simulations: Estimates of the perspectives of the Northern Sea Route, Dokl. Earth Sci., 415, 759-763. Publications TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS

19. The presented above results are based on a “linear approach” TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Stroeve et al. 2007: Climate model projections 21 st century IPCC AR4: Arcric sea ice observations HadISST1.1 sea ice and Arctic temperature Is the recent sea ice melt unprecedented?

20. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS HadISST1.1 + All forcing Atmospheric GCM (ECHAM5) forced by HadISST1.1 data Impact of the natural multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic on Arctic sea ice suggests a slowdown of the sea ice decrease in the following decades

21. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS NA THC International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference, 8-12 June 2010 Semenov V.A. 1. Validation of the early 20th century sea ice data in the Arctic: a GCM approach 2. The role of the Arctic as an amplifier of climate variability and change

22. TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Thank you for your attention!

23. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden

24. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Arctic sea ice extent from satellite data September 2007September 2008 TRANSBALTIC CONFERENCE 2010, 17-18 March 2010, Malmö, Sweden