1. FTA experiences for the promotion of National Innovation System in Brazil Dalci Maria dos Santos Science and Technology Analist National Council of Scientific and Technological Development – CNPq Ministry of Science and Technology - Brazil September, 2006 Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) in Developing Countries

2. Slide 22 FTA in Developing Countries – Experiences from Brazil In Brazil, in the last 10 years: IN THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM - since 1995 – re-emerge the processes for strengthen the long term planning activities including prospective studies, futures studies, evaluation activities and monitoring, indicators identification, intellectual property rights as strong mechanisms and tools to drive the national innovation system. 1998 – BRASIL 2020 PROJECT – Secretariat of Strategic Subjects (SAE) of the Presidency of the Republic – SAE/SAA/PR 2000 – THE BRAZILIAN PROGRAM OF TECHNOLOGICAL INDUSTRIAL PROSPECTIVE – Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC) 2000 – THE PROSPECTAR PROGRAM – Ministry of Science and Tecnhology (MCT) 2004 – BRASIL 3 MOMENTS PROJECT – Nucleus of Strategic Issues - Presidency of the Republic 2001 – CENTER FOR STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND STUDIES – CGEE – a Social Organization

3. Slide 33 The Brazil 2020 Project: elaborated in 1998, was the first experience of governmental planning integrated in Brazil, in the recent years. Even without the sense of making a precise orientation for the public investments or for the budgetary organization of the activities of the State, this project represents a landmark. Main Objectives: a reflection exercise, aiming at outlining views for the future of Brazil, and therefore, guides the elaboration of some exploration scenarios to guide Brazilian itinerary of development. FTA Techniques Scenarios Generation (exploratory and normative) scenario A – GOOD – called ABATIAPÉ scenario B – FAIR – called BABORÉ scenario C – BAD – called CAEETÊ scenario D – DESIRED – normative - called DIADORIM THE BRAZIL 2020 PROJECT Secretariat of Strategic Subjects (SAE) of the Presidency of the Republic

4. Slide 44 The ProspeCTar Programme was the first foresight initiative in Brazil and was launched in 2000. The programme aimed to examine technological trends to support the decision about investments in the Sectorial Funds for development of Science and Technology. Main Objectives: It has the characteristic of being national and has the intention of becoming a permanent process of identification of scientific and technological needs and opportunities, for both government and private sector. Selected Themes: Aeronautics, Agriculture (includes forest, fishing, livestock farming, agribusiness, biotechnology), Energy (includes biotechnology), Health (includes biotechnology), Materials, Outer Space, Water Resources and Telecom & Information Technology (includes electronics).

5. Slide 55 FTA Techniques Literature survey: Survey of the state of the art of the selected themes (technological or not) by the analysis of the specialized literature and official and academic reports on diagnosis and future trends; Delphi Survey – three rounds Statistical analysis and Cluster analysis - By the end of the third round, the topics were organized and listed. Each topic was statistically described. After that, a cluster analysis was applied in each theme; Expert Panels – were planned to refine the results to meet the needs of the different strategic agendas; Multicriteria Analysis – the topics should be hierarchically organized in each theme according to different scenarios.

6. Slide 66 The Brazilian Programme of Technological Industrial Prospective was created by the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC) in 2000, and received technical and financial support from UNIDO Foresight initiative for Latin America. Main Objectives: the programme seeks to evaluate the capacity of each one of the main productive chains, considered the horizon of time 2003-2013. It aims to provide information to support public policies on technological development. Selected Themes: the programme has selected sectors of high competitiveness such as: Plastics, Building Site, Textile and Makings, Wood and Pieces of Furniture.

7. Slide 77 FTA Techniques Productive chain methodology (by Embrapa) that involves: Diagnosis modelling and segmentation of the productive chains; identification of performance indicators; identification of competitivity and critical factors; selection of research topics; Delphi survey: evaluation of the selected topics for each productive chain; Scenario simulation Cross-Impact Analysis Trend analysis

8. Slide 88 Nucleus of Strategic Issues - Presidency of Republic - Brazil Núcleo de Assuntos Estratégicos Secretaria de Comunicação de Governo e Gestão Estratégica NAEs was created in 2004 and has the main objective to identify national opportunities and deal with long term strategic issues in order to support the process of decision making for the Presidency of the Republic. National Opportunities BIOFUELS BIOTECHNOLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE NANOTECHNOLOGY Others Projects executed by CGEE Long Term Perspective BRAZIL 3 MOMENTS PROJECT

9. Slide 99 FTA Techniques Diagnosis: in 7 dimensions - institutional; economic; environmental; sociocultural; knowledge, territorial and global; Conjuncture analysis: involves the identification of the situation, clear view of the main variables and indicators, stakeholders, ruptures, opportunities, challenges and factors bearers of future; Retrospective analysis: involves the understanding of the main dynamic process that generated events in the past and to identify factors bearers of future (around 1200) that gave rise to 50 strategic themes; Main Objectives: Brazil 3 Moments, carried out in 2004, has a general objective to establish a view of the Nation Brazil in 7 dimensions, defining a group of specific objectives and time horizon to be reached by the country (2007, 2015 and 2022); Brazil 3 Moments Project

10. Slide 10 Brazil 3 Moments Project FTA Techniques (cont.) Delphi survey: 3 rounds. Useful to obtain the society perception and identify the main issues and concerns; Scenarios simulation: the multiple combinations of the strategic themes; Prospective analysis: identification of variables, indicators and factors bearers of future, and analysis and evaluation of the scenarios identified; Cross-Impact Analysis: used to look at the possible strategic solutions; Monte Carlo simulation; Game Theories, and Curve of future: shall present the environment dynamics involved in the scenarios accordingly to the objectives to be reached, and the alternatives of construction of the future.

11. Slide 11 The Center for Strategic Management and Studies – CGEE - is a public non governmental Center specially designed to handle foresight activities and to promote national planning for S,T&I in the country, formally installed in September, 2001. The Center for Strategic Management and Studies - CGEE The methodological approach designed to guide foresight in CGEE takes into account the methodological structures proposed by Horton (1999), Conway and Voros (2002), as well as practical orientations contained in the Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight (2002) and in Godet (1991, 2001). A CGEEs methodological approach is open to accommodate several FTA forms and innovations from other domains, in order to better inform the decision making process in the field of science and technology.

12. Slide 12 Foresight Exercise in Energy - to Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT) Main Objectives: carried out in 2002/2003 aimed at the establishment of a R&D priority agenda, considering the existing challenges to the Brazilian energy matrix in the next 20 years. Selected Themes: technologies for: the generation of electric energy, the fuel supply, the energy transmission and distribution; distributed generation and storage, planning, conservation and final use. FTA Techniques Literature survey: Survey of the state of the art and technological trends of the energy sector; Delphi survey: 63 technological topics were examined by experts, considering four dimensions of analysis: techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social, using Delphi survey; Multicriteria analysis: priorities were established for the technological topics using the multicriteria analysis (software Electre III).

13. Slide 13 Foresight Exercise in Water Resources - to Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT) Main Objectives: carried out in 2003 aimed at the establishment of a science, technology and innovation priority agenda and guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six pre-defined themes. Selected Themes: Quality of superficial water; Rationalization of the use of water in rural areas; Quality of underground water; Products and equipments; Climate and water resources; Sanitation. FTA Techniques Diagnosis: reference papers about the six themes related to water resources. Expert panels: involving the following steps: realization of expert panels to debate and validate reference paper elaborated for each one of the six themes; analyses of the recommendations of each panel compared to recently conducted activities (Delphi - Prospectar/Water Resources (MCT)); workshop for presentation, discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format (all six themes).

14. Slide 14 Main Objectives: carried out in 2004, pursuing to map challenges and opportunities for biotechnology in Brazil, with particular focus on research and commercialization of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). This include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in the agricultural and health sectors. Selected Themes: Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies; trends on the regulatory and legal national and international framework; applied metrology for biological products and processes; trends in public perception and flows of information; technological and commercial strategies (long term perspective); financing mechanisms; future of plant breeding and plant breeder profile; and trends in intellectual property rights. Foresight Exercise in Biotechnology - to Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE)

15. Slide 15 FTA Techniques Mapping S&T national capacity according to data available in the CNPq/Lattes database; Scientific and Technological monitoring using text mining techniques (software Vantage Point) applied to relevant international databases; Interviews with experts; Trend analysis on the international biosafety regulatory framework, and on the adoption of RR soybean varieties by Brazilian farmers; Evaluation of public perception and flows of information in relation to the application of genetic engineering technologies; Experts panels were conducted to debate each theme selected. Foresight Exercise in Biotechnology - to Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE)

16. Slide 16 Main Objectives: carried out in 2005, to map the current situation and future trends on science and technology in the country and in a number of selected nations, in order to guide national investments in nanosciences and nanotechnologies. Selected Themes: Trends in the development of science and technology in a selected group of countries, both developed and developing; trends in private sector investments worldwide; State of the art on nanoscience and nanotechnology in Brazil (main research groups, laboratorial infrastructure, funding, training activities and international cooperation), and evaluation of the main research lines/technological topics through Delphi survey. Foresight Exercise in Nanotechnology - to Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE)

17. Slide 17 FTA Techniques Scientific and Technological monitoring using text mining techniques (software Vantage Point), according to a dictionary of terms developed by CGEE; Mapping S&T national capacity according to data available in the CNPq/Lattes database; Benchmarking, aiming at comparing the development of nanosciences and nanotechnologies between two groups of selected countries, one composed by leading countries and other by emerging countries in this field; Delphi survey to obtain the tacit knowledge about research lines and topics related to: nanotechnology for sensors; nanotechnology for processing, storage and transmission of information; nanobiotechnology; nanotechnology for structured applications; tools and equipments for nanosciences and nanotechnologies; nanotechnology for electrochemical processes; energy; agribusiness; water resources and environment; social impacts of nanotechnology; long range research. Foresight Exercise in Nanotechnology - to Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE)

18. Slide 18 Final Remarks Looking at the classification of FTA methods, one can see: Brazil has experienced a strong growth in these activities in the last few years; It is possible to say that the prospective studies are expanding in Brazil; There is a clear evidence of the wide use of qualitative and soft methods, mainly from the Expert Opinion family; The use of methods from Bibliometrics and Monitoring families are also growing recently; There is a need to increase the use of methods from the Scenarios, Trend Analysis, Descriptive, Statistical, Modeling & Simulation and Valuing/Decision/Economic families; There is no evidence of the use of methods from the Creativity family;

19. Slide 19 And more.... Up to now the main questions lied on a lack of understanding about the real benefits of the foresight and FTA activities; Moreover, the points of interest of the involved communities about the future tend not to be well coordinated and integrated; There are numerous concerns about the management of these studies; There are good conceptual frameworks but a lack of full application of them; There is a need to increase and expand the use of FTA tools - using complementary methods in a coordinating manner; T here is a need to encourage the society – government, businesses and academy - to change their minds and then their behaviour in relation to explore FTA tools. Final Remarks

20. Slide 20 Thanks ! d.santos@globo.com www.cnpq.br National Council of Scientific and Technological Development – CNPq Brasília - Brazil