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Demands and expectations at SMHI on the European Reanalysis for observations and climate Per Und én Tomas Landelius SMHI.

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Presentation on theme: "Demands and expectations at SMHI on the European Reanalysis for observations and climate Per Und én Tomas Landelius SMHI."— Presentation transcript:

1 Demands and expectations at SMHI on the European Reanalysis for observations and climate Per Und én Tomas Landelius SMHI

2 EURO4M WP1 observational datasets WP2 reanalysis and evaluation WP 3 evaluation WP 4 management and coordination WP 2.1 4D-VAR developments and radar precipitation, a year of data – MO WP 2.2 3D-VAR downscaling, most of 20 years, 25 km SMHI WP 2.3 MESAN and SAFRAN downscaling, 12-4 km, MF and SMHI

3 What SMHI expects from EURO4M Dynamical downscaling of ERA data using HIRLAM 3D/4D-VAR – Consistent data set for ~ 20 years or more Access to observations additional to the ECMWF archive 2D high resolution downscaling of HIRLAM – Using these auxiliary observations – Driven by consistent HIRLAM model fields – Consistent data set ~ 20 years or more

4 Expect project members to share data

5 User requirements at SMHI onwards Every 3:rd hour 5 km (0.05°) Parameters for: Evaluation of climate change models Atmospheric environment models Oceanographical models Wind energy studies Hydrological models Surface radiation models Observation monitoring and replacement

6 SMHI KOAKK 40 years for QC of observations for climate National archives of climate data have discrepancies Need to be re-checked – Corrections when necessary and possible EERA-40 ? >SMHI KOAKK 125 km -> HIRLAM reanalysis 22 km ->11 km? N Europe ? MESAN downscaling – at 11 km

7 Data-assimilation system, model and analysis, unchanged through the period Analysis product quality improves in time Observing systems including SST/ ICE improves: Better quality, more data types, higher time frequency Reanalysis philosophy

8 Intermittent data assimilation 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC (06 UTC(12 UTC3 h) (18 UTC tid

9 ITN 4/ Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Iterative fitting of a Forecast trajectory to observations Over a time window of 6 hours

10 SMHI expertise and resources HIRLAM 3D and 4D-VAR Observation handling Re-analysis – ERA expertise – DAMOCLES coupled HIRLAM/HIROMB reanalysis Surface parameterisation Cloud parameterisation Radar and satellite data and algorithms HARMONIE (ALADIN) models and data assimilation 3D(4D) MESAN 2D-analysis OI with anisotrophic structure functions Observation processing including radar, precip, satellite and road stations Long operational experience ERA-MESAN

11 FoUp redov HIRLAM ALADIN High Resolution Limited Area Modelling Aire Limitee Adaption Dynamique InterNationale

12 Improved 2D reanalysis for Europe ERA-40 as first guess 1980 – , 06, 12, and 18 UTC 11 km (0.1°) ERA-MESAN

13 Workpackage 2.2 ERA-Interim downscaling 25 km ENSEMBLES area ? ECMWF observations conv AMVs? HIRLAM 3D-VAR 25 km Jk ((large-scale mix)) > HIRLAM 3D-VAR 11 km EU area MESAN downscaling 11 km T2m, Td, uv, prec, clouds 3D-VAR developments Jk MESAN/SAFRAN developments Snow/ orography etc Advanced features VARAN type structure functions Coupled surf-upper air 3D ? Validation KNMI/MO

14 11-4 km km ERA-40 / ERA Interim ECMWF HIRLAM MESAN 22 km

15 Signatur HIRLAM - Large Scale Mixing, LSM Reruns from ECMWF analysis, updating first guess Instead: Include ECMWF information in assimilation! Related work done with ALADIN at Météo-France

16 Signatur Vorticity, model state Short forecast, ECMWF Constrain Vorticity Begin as simple as possible: - Vorticity only - Univariate NMC statistics from ECMWF forecasts, interpolated to HIRLAM RCR geometry

17 EURO4M downscaling with HIRLAM 4D-Var possible areas (Per Kållberg, Per Dahlgren – SMHI) HIRLAM rotated lat-long coordinates S.P. at -35º/20º three resolutions: 0.2º, 0.15º and 0.1º

18 294*260 = points 0.2º*0.2º (27/-31/-24.7/27.5)

19 an example one day 4D-Var 0.15º*0.15º LBC from ERA_Interim 1 January Z 4D-Var and +12h fcst ~215 System Billing units on C1A one cycle took ~40 minutes (run on daytime Nov 17)

20 306x306 points 0.2 x 0.2 °


22 another example one 4D-Var 0.2º*0.2º – 2 outer loops LBC from ERA_Interim +12 h forecasts Analysis 20 mins Forecast 5 mins => 25 mins per cycle – Possible to run 1D / 2h – Or 12 days / day (but depending on queues etc) Special Project at ECMWF? Will apply....

23 65 levels inst of 60 och 10 m lowest mod lv inst of 30

24 Development of the MESAN 2D analysis Anisotropic structure functionsParameterized downscaling

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