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© Crown copyright Met Office UM 4D-Var Regional Reanalysis Progress Richard Renshaw, Stephen Oxley, Adam Maycock, Peter Jermey, Dale Barker, DingMin Li
© Crown copyright Met Office Contents Progress with technical work First attempt at reanalysis Developments for 2012/13
© Crown copyright Met Office Set up and demonstrate an advanced regional reanalysis system Based on operational North Atlantic/Europe LAM Planning to analyse 2010 & 2011 WP2.1 Building capacity for advanced regional data assimilation
© Crown copyright Met Office 12km grid 480 x 384 MetO Regional Reanalysis: Horizontal Domain
© Crown copyright Met Office Technical work Build a reanalysis system to run at ECMWF taking observations, start file, boundary conditions from ECMWF archives storing analyses in ECMWF archives and producing data to validate the reanalysis.
© Crown copyright Met Office Running at ECMWF ECMWF interface Met Office
© Crown copyright Met Office Technical Highlights Set up Met Office systems on ECMWF IBM Use observations from mars (ECMWF BUFR format) Preprocess satellite radiances reconstruct level 1b files from BUFR data convert level 1b counts to level 1c radiances (AAPP) map between instrument grids (e.g. AMSU+MHS to IASI) Convert and map ERA-Interim GRIB files to UM file format, for start files and boundary conditions Use CYLC to develop and run a reanalysis suite
© Crown copyright Met Office CYLC: Scheduling System CYLC, written by Hilary Oliver (NIWA) http://hjoliver.github.com/cylc/ + ROSE – adds interfaces and configuration management
© Crown copyright Met Office Why CYLC ? Will replace ageing Met Office system Can build, run, monitor suites of any complexity Portable – Open source Flexible Intelligent job scheduling - define dependencies for each task - tasks will run early if possible
© Crown copyright Met Office sample CYLC suite
© Crown copyright Met Office Dales challenge Regional reanalysis - why bother ??!
© Crown copyright Met Office Evidence from operational NWP 25km Global vs 12km NAE
© Crown copyright Met Office...the benefits of resolution forecast range screen temperature rms error (K) global 25km NAE 12km
© Crown copyright Met Office...and the disadvantage of boundaries! forecast range mean sea level pressure rms error (Pa) global NAE
© Crown copyright Met Office ERA-Interim vs 12km EURO4M 12km, 70 levels 36km 4D-Var 6-hour analysis window assimilate: conventional obs incl vis satellite radiances Ground-based GPS Cloud Precipitation Initial state and boundary conditions from ERA- Interim analyses T255 (80km), 60 levels T159 (125km) 4D-Var 12-hour analysis window assimilate: conventional obs satellite radiances
© Crown copyright Met Office model orography ERA-Interim Model T255 (80km) Var T159 (125km) Met Office Model 12km Var 36km
© Crown copyright Met Office First attempt at reanalysis... May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 Floods in Poland, eastern Europe Severe storms France/Spain Russian heatwave spreading West, forest fires
© Crown copyright Met Office Poland floods, 16 th May 2010 http://eca.knmi.nl/ e-obs gridded 24hr rainfall
© Crown copyright Met Office Poland floods, 16 th May 2010 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute radar 24hr rainfall
© Crown copyright Met Office 12km reanalysis e-obs Poland floods, 16 th May 2010
© Crown copyright Met Office ERA-Interim e-obs Poland floods, 16 th May 2010
© Crown copyright Met Office Russian heatwave, July 2010 Tmax, 10-07-2010 e-obs
© Crown copyright Met Office Tmax 10-07-10 ERA-Interim 12km EURO4M obs
© Crown copyright Met Office Verification vs Radiosonde T+0T+6 Temperature rms error ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km
© Crown copyright Met Office Verification vs Radiosonde T+0T+6 Vector wind rms error ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km
© Crown copyright Met Office Developments for 2012/13 Variational bias correction ODB – obs monitoring Extend observations dataset Cloud and Precipitation assimilation Validation – extreme statistics Collaborate on cross-validation
© Crown copyright Met Office Variational Bias Correction Airmass-dependent bias correction of satellite radiances (based on Harris and Kelly, 2001) Currently coeffs c are calculated off-line monthly VarBC will give smooth and automatic updating Work is underway – finish in 2012 (DingMin Li, Dale Barker, Andrew Lorenc)
© Crown copyright Met Office ODB – obs monitoring database Established ECMWF database + utilities Array of tools available for free Metview macros (quick look) Obstat (detailed stats / graphics) Replaces several diverse monitoring tools at MO Joint development Currently ~1.5 years into 3 year joint funded post at ECMWF (Peter Kuchta) Setting up Obstat at MO Other NMSs already using ODB (CAWCR, KMA)
© Crown copyright Met Office Extend observations dataset Work with UEA (WP2.5) to extend surface and sonde datasets Seeking sub-daily raingauge data...
© Crown copyright Met Office Cloud + Precip assimilation Operational UK models assimilate cloud products (satellite) and rainfall (radar, latent heat nudging) For EURO4M, plan to assimilate cloud reports and raingauge accumulations from surface stations Needs development work (2012/13): source sub-daily raingauge accumulations decode and interpret surface reports (Peter Francis) quality control assimilate rainfall accumulations in 4D-Var reduce effect that analysis increments trigger rain in model
© Crown copyright Met Office Validation - Extremes High impact weather Should show a benefit for regional reanalysis Focus on: precipitation temperature winds Need to look at probability distributions (pdfs), e.g. number of values outside 10 th /90 th percentile count consecutive days with high/low values accumulated precipitation over several days
© Crown copyright Met Office Collaboration – Cross-Validation Compare our reanalysis against: SMHI ERA Obs climatologies Others ?
© Crown copyright Met Office Summary Reanalysis system ready to run Already better than ERA-Interim in some features, but not all (yet!) Science development and testing this year
© Crown copyright Met Office Questions ? With thanks to: Tom Green, Nigel Atkinson, Sreerekha Tr, others...
© Crown copyright Met Office Extra slides...
© Crown copyright Met Office First attempt at reanalysis... May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 3 x 1 month runs, with overlap
© Crown copyright Met Office How long to spin up ? rms surface pressure
© Crown copyright Met Office How long to spin up ? rms screen temperature
© Crown copyright Met Office 100km 4D-Var12km 4D-Var Impact of Var resolution
© Crown copyright Met Office Verification vs Radiosonde T+0T+6 Relative Humidity rms error ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km
© Crown copyright Met Office Global ODB trial output NH Surface T mean (o-b)
© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Dale Barker, Tomas Landelius, Eric Bazile, Christoph Frei, Phil Jones 2 April 2012 EURO4M – WP2: Regional Reanalysis.
© Crown copyright Met Office EURO4M Work Package 2 (chiefly WP2.1) Richard Renshaw EURO4M GA1, De Bilt, April 14 th 2010.
© Crown copyright Met Office UM 4D-Var Regional Reanalysis Progress Richard Renshaw, Stephen Oxley, Adam Maycock, Peter Jermey, Dale Barker, Tom Green,
© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Dale Barker, Tomas Landelius, Eric Bazile, Francesco Isotta, Phil Jones 17 April 2013 EURO4M – WP2: Regional.
Using satellite data to understand uncertainties in reanalyses: UERRA Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey with thanks to Jörg Trentmann, Jennifer Lenhardt, Andrea.
Page 1 NAE 4DVAR Oct 2006 © Crown copyright 2006 Mark Naylor Data Assimilation, NWP NAE 4D-Var – Testing and Issues EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting Zurich 9 th -12.
European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EU-project, April 2010 – March 2014, 9.
Dale Barker, Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey WWOSC, Montreal, Canada, 20 August 2014 Regional Reanalysis At The Met Office © Crown Copyright 2012 Source:
Global vs mesoscale ATOVS assimilation at the Met Office Global Large obs error (4 K) NESDIS 1B radiances NOAA-15 & 16 HIRS and AMSU thinned to 154 km.
© Crown copyright Met Office Recent & planned developments to the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) Richard Swinbank,
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 SRNWP Lead Centre Report on Data Assimilation 2005 for EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting October 2005, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Introduction to data assimilation in meteorology Pierre Brousseau, Ludovic Auger ATMO 08,Alghero, september 2008.
26 th EWGLAM & 11 th SRNWP meetings, Oslo, Norway, 4 th - 7 th October 2004 Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan RC LACE Data Manager Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological.
EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring
Page 1 Developments in regional DA Oct 2007 © Crown copyright 2007 Mark Naylor, Bruce Macpherson, Richard Renshaw, Gareth Dow Data Assimilation and Ensembles,
Station lists and bias corrections Jemma Davie, Colin Parrett, Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey © Crown Copyright 2012 Source: Met Office© Crown copyright.
Page 1 NAE 4DVAR Mar 2006 © Crown copyright 2006 Bruce Macpherson, Marek Wlasak, Mark Naylor, Richard Renshaw Data Assimilation, NWP Assimilation developments.
1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Use of radar data in modelling at the Met Office (UK) Bruce Macpherson Mesoscale Assimilation, NWP Met Office EWGLAM / COST-717.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office Verification -status Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8- 11, 2007.
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction systems employed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology over East Antarctica during the summer season.
1 The GEMS production systems and retrospective reanalysis Adrian Simmons.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 DEVELOPMENT OF 1- 4KM RESOLUTION DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NOWCASTING AT THE MET OFFICE Sue Ballard, September 2005 Z. Li, M.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring MACC Conference, Utrecht, May 2011 GEOLAND2 MyOcean MACC SAFER G-Mosaic ??? Global Monitoring.
© Crown copyright Met Office An Introduction to PRECIS PRECIS Workshop, University of Reading, 13 th -17 th May, 2013.
Trials of a 1km Version of the Unified Model for Short Range Forecasting of Convective Events Humphrey Lean, Susan Ballard, Peter Clark, Mark Dixon, Zhihong.
© Crown copyright Met Office Development of NWP-based Nowcasting at the Met Office -The Nowcasting Demonstration Project Workshop on Use of NWP for Nowcasting.
Demands and expectations at SMHI on the European Reanalysis for observations and climate Per Und én Tomas Landelius SMHI.
© Crown copyright Met Office How will we COPE in Summer 2013? - The COnvective Precipitation Experiment Phil Brown.
© Crown copyright Met Office Impact experiments using the Met Office global and regional model Presented by Richard Dumelow to the WMO workshop, Geneva,
© Crown copyright Met Office Plans for Met Office contribution to SMOS+STORM Evolution James Cotton & Pete Francis, Satellite Applications, Met Office,
1 Met Office, UK 2 Japan Meteorological Agency 3 Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Assimilation of data from AIRS for improved numerical weather prediction.
© Crown copyright Met Office Review topic – Impact of High-Resolution Data Assimilation Bruce Macpherson, Christoph Schraff, Claude Fischer EWGLAM, 2009.
Regional Re-analyses of Observations, Ensembles and Uncertainties of Climate information Per Undén Coordinator UERRA SMHI.
Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on.
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany HYDROCARE Actions 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of Variability.
1 MODIS winds assimilation experiments and impact studies to date at the Met Office Howard Berger, Mary Forsythe, Met Office, Bracknell/Exeter, UK UW-CIMSS.
ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts Severe Weather Forecasts Ervin Zsoter.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Nowcasting and Short Range NWP at the.
Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite data Claus Petersen and Bent H. Sass Danish Meteorological Institute.
Slide 1 IPWG, Beijing, October 2008 Slide 1 Assimilation of rain and cloud-affected microwave radiances at ECMWF Alan Geer, Peter Bauer, Philippe.
Development of Data Assimilation Systems for Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction at JMA Tadashi Fujita (NPD JMA) Y. Honda, Y. Ikuta, J. Fukuda, Y.
Soil moisture generation at ECMWF Gisela Seuffert and Pedro Viterbo European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ELDAS Interim Data Co-ordination.
Use of radar data in ALADIN Marián Jurašek Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute.
© Crown copyright Met Office Data Assimilation Developments at the Met Office Recent operational changes, and plans Andrew Lorenc, DAOS, Montreal, August.
ECMWF June 2006Slide 1 Access to ECMWF data for Research Manuel Fuentes Data and Services Section, ECMWF ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting.
ECMWF involvement in the DRR/SEE programme Conclusion of co-operation agreements with: The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Bosnia & Herzegovina (agreed.
Slide 1 EUMETSAT Fellow Day, 9 March 2015 Observation Errors for AMSU-A and a first look at the FY-3C MWHS-2 instrument Heather Lawrence, second-year EUMETSAT.
Weather forecasting by computer Michael Revell NIWA
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