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TNK-BP International Ltd. Presentation for investors October 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "TNK-BP International Ltd. Presentation for investors October 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 TNK-BP International Ltd. Presentation for investors October 2012

2 Important notice NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER TO SELL OR ISSUE OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR ACQUIRE SECURITIES OF TNK-BP LTD (THE "COMPANY") OR ANY OF ITS SUBSIDIARIES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OR ANY JURISDICTION OR AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTO INVESTMENT ACTIVITY. NO PART OF THIS DOCUMENT, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION, SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. NO REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR UNDERTAKING, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR THE OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. NONE OF THE COMPANY OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THE DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS "FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS", WHICH INCLUDE ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY STATEMENTS PRECEDED BY, FOLLOWED BY OR THAT INCLUDE THE WORDS "TARGETS", "BELIEVES", "EXPECTS", "AIMS", "INTENDS", "WILL", "MAY", "ANTICIPATES", "WOULD", "COULD“ OR SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS OR THE NEGATIVE THEREOF. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS BEYOND THE COMPANY'S CONTROL THAT COULD CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE COMPANY TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, INCLUDING, AMONG OTHERS, THE ACHIEVEMENT OF ANTICIPATED LEVELS OF PROFITABILITY, GROWTH, COST AND SYNERGY OF RECENT ACQUISITIONS, THE IMPACT OF COMPETITIVE PRICING, THE ABILITY TO OBTAIN NECESSARY REGULATORY APPROVALS AND LICENSES, THE IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT, VOLATILITY IN STOCK MARKETS OR IN THE PRICE OF OUR SHARES, FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE IMPACT OF GENERAL BUSINESS AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE COMPANY'S PRESENT AND FUTURE BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE COMPANY WILL OPERATE IN THE FUTURE. BY THEIR NATURE, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES BECAUSE THEY RELATE TO EVENTS AND DEPEND ON CIRCUMSTANCES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE FUTURE. THESE FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS AT THE DATE AS OF WHICH THEY ARE MADE, AND THE COMPANY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY OBLIGATION OR UNDERTAKING TO DISSEMINATE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE IN THE COMPANY'S EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGE IN EVENTS, CONDITIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES ON WHICH ANY SUCH STATEMENTS ARE BASED. NEITHER THE COMPANY, NOR ANY OF ITS AGENTS, EMPLOYEES OR ADVISORS INTENDS OR HAS ANY DUTY OR OBLIGATION TO SUPPLEMENT, AMEND, UPDATE OR REVISE ANY OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED AS AT THE DATE OF THIS DOCUMENT AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. 2

3 Table of contents 3 Introduction to TNK-BP TNK-BP at a glance Strong competitive position Business Update 1H12 Highlights Health, Safety & Environment Upstream Downstream Financial Performance Financial Highlights IFRS Business Environment Net Income – 1H12 v 1H11 Revenues Costs Taxes Net income - 2Q12 v 1Q12 Sources and Uses of Cash Debt and Liquidity Outlook

4 4 TNK-BP at a glance R USSIA B ELARUS U KRAINE V IETNAM V ENEZUELA B RAZIL Russia’s top 3 largest oil company* 1H12 production 2,035 mboe/d with affiliates Brownfield assets in West Siberia and Orenburg Producing greenfields in Uvat and Verkhnechonskoye Yamal: a new generation of greenfield projects Growing gas business Truly international player Ranking in the world’s top 10 non-state-owned oil producers* Venezuela: stakes in heavy and light oil projects Vietnam: stakes in offshore gas and pipeline projects Brazil: stake in high potential exploration project Ukraine and Belarus: downstream business World class reserve base 39 bn boe of PRMS 3P reserves Reserve life of 21 years of 1P and 59 years of PRMS 3P reserves Industry-leading F&D costs and exploration success rate Strong financial profile Investment grade credit ratings Strong credit metrics Robust financial performance Fully integrated business Four refineries and 50% stake in YANOS refinery in Russia Refining capacity of 698 mb/d, refining cover of 38.4% in 1H12 Extensive retail network with 1,274 retail sites in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus** * - based on total oil production ** - at the end of 1H12

5 Strong competitive position 5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.2 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 2.2 012345 Sinopec Gazprom Neft ENI Statoil ConocoPhilips TNK-BP Lukoil Total Rosneft Petrobras Chevron Shell PetroChina** BP ExxonMobil 2011 oil and gas production (incl. equity affiliates), mmboe per day OilGas Source: company reports. *PetroChina production as of 2010 RRR - reserve replacement ratio F&D – finding and development 3Y average SEC LOF RRR (2009-2011) World class reserve replacement and F&D costs Among top 10 oil producers globally Best capital efficiency among Russian peers 1H12 CAPEX/ boe, USD Source: Consolidated Financial Statement, MD&A reports of companies

6 1H12 highlights 6 Continued robust operational performance 2,035 mboe/d - total oil and gas production*, up 4.1% 18% greenfields contribution to liquids production, up from 12% in 1H11 2.0 mln tons retail volumes in Russia, up 19% Continued refinery modernization with share of Euro-4 and 5 fuels up from 42% to 66% USD 5.9 bn EBITDA, down 21% on export duty lag, tax and tariff increases and one-offs USD 3.9 bn free cash flow, up 9% despite EBITDA decline Note: All data in this presentation are for 1H12 and comparisons are 1H12 v 1H11, unless otherwise noted * Including affiliates

7 Health, Safety and Environment Health and Safety The reduction of TRIFR* by 20% The reduction of DAFWC by 10% Environment Spills frequency continuously improving: –The number of spills per thousand tons produced down 13% –Spilt tons per thousand tons produced down 45% * Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) comprises the total number of fatalities, lost time injuries, restricted work cases and medical treatment cases as per OSHA definitions. ** The International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate – 12 Month Rolling Average Spills Frequency – 12 Month Rolling Average 7 1H12

8 Upstream: 1H12 overview 8 Strategy: Resources  Reserves  Production  USD 4.7 bn Upstream EBITDA  1,760 mb/d liquids production*, up 2.6%  275 mboe/d gas sales*, up 14.3 %  82.5% associated petroleum gas utilization  13.8 bn boe proved reserves on PRMS basis**  Focus areas: brownfields stabilization new greenfields challenged reserves * Including affiliates ** As of 31 December 2011

9 Reserves 9 Strategy: Resources  Reserves  Production Large reserve base: 39 bn boe 3P reserves An established track record of successful reserve replacement: 145% SEC LOF 203% PRMS Best-in-class efficiency: 72% average exploration success rate for 2009-2011 USD 4.4/bbl F&D costs (SEC LOF) in 2011 137 mmboe of resource adds with new discoveries mainly in Yamal 1H12 Reserve life 21 years Reserve life 42 years Reserve life 59 years Reserve base (PRMS) Reserve replacement ratio

10 Upstream: Liquids production in 1H12 1,760 mb/d liquids production incl. affiliates, up 2.6% VCNG production at 139 mb/d, up 60% Uvat production at 126 mb/d, up 28% Share of greenfields in total liquids production at 18%, up from 12% in 1H11 Orenburg liquids production down 0.6% - operational issues at Sorochinsk in 1Q12 West Siberia liquids production down 5.6% (6.5% in 1H11) Production – continued growth Greenfields – increasing contribution Brownfields – target to stabilize production 10 mb/d Changes in liquids production, including affiliates 1H12 1H11

11 Upstream: West Siberia 11 Effective Waterflood Management New water shut-off technologies being piloted and scaled up Plan to reduce water extraction in 2012 by 1% (4.5 mln tons) as result of new technologies moving forward Organizational capability improvement project underway including skills assessment, training, peer review from external consultants Improved drilling efficiency Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) of electric submersible pumps increased to 630 days (from 615 in 2011) Low cost access drilling projects with Baker Hughes, Schlumberger and Halliburton Innovative technologies in place 56 pilot projects (425 jobs) are expected to be completed in 2012 “Asset of the future” concept of online monitoring of the field performance – to be scaled up in 2012 Successful application of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells:  up to 7 stage fracs  40 jobs performed in 1H12  over 100 jobs planned for 2012  tests in difficult layers with 2-3x higher flows than conventional frac  advanced completion technology with fully controlled stage frac in cemented liner Successful application of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells:  up to 7 stage fracs  40 jobs performed in 1H12  over 100 jobs planned for 2012  tests in difficult layers with 2-3x higher flows than conventional frac  advanced completion technology with fully controlled stage frac in cemented liner Production decline lowered by 0.9% in 1H12 v 1H11

12 TNK-BP – 600 mln tons of challenged reserves in 7 top fields in West Siberia 12 Technology pilots in 2012-2015 to scale-up and bring in production Multi-stage frac Multi-stage frac at Kamennoye licence area (LA) Pilots at Central Ryabchik of Samotlor field Effective drilling and development Drilling project for Pad 118 of Severo-Khokhryakovskoye field PK1-2 Van-Egan - Pilot for viscous oil Pilot at Em-Yegovsky LA Waterflood management and water shutoff – integral part of West – Siberia program for 2012-14 Reconfiguration of waterflood system at Severo- Varyeganskoye field Reconfiguration of waterflood system at South Talinskoye LA Tyumen formation – priority project for challenged reserves development

13 Yamal – major new oil province with 5.5 bn barrels of 3P reserves Suzun 2016 Russkoye 2018 Intrafield pipeline Messoyakha (50% share) 2016-18 Tagul 2019 Russko-Rechenskoe 2019 13 Drilling of 7 pilot wells started in June to determine base development scenario The optimal field infrastructure concept prepared Reserves: 2.22 bn bbl 3P PRMS Field engineering survey completed for oil treatment facility and gas-turbine power plant Reserves: 0.32 bn bbl 3P PRMS Intrafield pipeline forecast for completion by end 2015 Agreement with Transneft on oil transportation signed 2012 E&A program is aimed at viscous oil reserves confirmation Reserves: 1.14 bn bbl 3P PRMS Pilot 1 under way, initial rates confirmed for horizontal wells E&A program under way to prove reserves in least understood zones 2D/3D seismic to cover oilfield frontier zones Reserves: 1.7 bn bbl 3P PRMS Considerable gas reserves discovered (>50 bcm)

14 Upstream: Gas sales in 1H12 14 mboe/d Changes in gas sales, including affiliates 275 mboe/d gas sales incl. affiliates, up 14.3% Increasing APG utilisation in West Siberia (+4.5%) and Orenburg (+19.3%) 20 mboe/d gas sales from assets in Vietnam and Venezuela 1H12 1H11

15 International Projects: Vietnam, Venezuela, Brazil Drilling of the 2 nd Lan Do production well completed safely in April, plan to deliver first gas from Lan Do in 4Q12 TNK-BP net share of JVs production up 6% on 1Q12 to 28 mboe/d following successful drilling campaign Current negative effect on EBITDA due to impact of discounting of outstanding payments from PDVSA Vietnam Venezuela 15 Brazil Joint Operating Agreement Governance structure implemented; first OpsCom and ManCom in May Drilling operations: 2 wells completed in 2Q12, oil and gas shows in HRT-6, appraisal well HRT-7D dry, drilling of HRT-8 and HRT-9 ended in 3Q12 with hydrocarbons discovery Exploration program being optimized Key performance indicators, 1H12 (TNK-BP share) Production, mmboe EBITDA, USD mln Capex, USD mln Vietnam3.511653 Venezuela5-2973 Brazil0-3016

16 Downstream: overview 1H12 16  USD 1.2 bn Downstream EBITDA  654 mb/d refining throughput  4 oil refineries and 50% stake in YANOS refinery in Russia  USD 12/bbl refining margin in 2Q12  High-margin retail sales in Russia: BP site daily throughput 4x European average Strategy: Maximization of integrated business value of production

17 Downstream: Refining 1H12 17 Throughput of 618 mb/d at Russian refineries in 1H12 v 651 mb/d in 1H11 due to turnarounds Healthy refining margins of USD 12/bbl in 2Q12 v USD 6/bbl in 1Q12 Focus on Euro-4 and Euro-5 product delivery Turnarounds at Yanos and Ryazan (RNPK) refineries completed successfully Transition completed to a 3 year turnaround cycle for AT-6 crude distillation complex at RNPK LINIK refinery operations are still suspended Increasing share of Euro-4 and Euro-5 fuels Note: Share of Euro-4 and Euro-5 fuels in total gasoline and diesel output of TNK-BP Russian refineries

18 Downstream: Retail and B2B 1H12 18 Retail Expansion to new regions continues with 3 sites purchased in Samara, 8 in Orel and 3 land plots acquired in Volgograd Launch of 7 new BP sites in Moscow and St.-Petersburg and commissioning of 2 BP and 11 TNK sites after reconstruction The number of Carbon loyalty program participants reached 650,000 B2B Share of jet fuel sales directly to airlines in 1H12 increased to 73% v 45% in 1H11 Jet deliveries started to air companies Tatarstan and I-Fly Development of TNK-Alfabit continues with bitumen laid at M1 federal highway, Rublevsky highway and F1 race track in Volokolamsk Distribution agreement for Valvoline lubricants signed with sales starting in July,,,,,

19 Financial highlights 19

20 1H11 under IFRS 20 1H11 and 2Q11 numbers have been restated for comparative purposes The main change relates to deferred tax, with higher forex driven volatility under IFRS:

21 Business environment 21 Weak environment both y-o-y and q-o-q, with severe negative duty lag affecting performance 1H12 v 1H11: Urals up 3% to USD 111.7/bbl Negative duty lag: USD 9.0/bbl 2Q12 v 1Q12: Urals down 9% to USD 106.5/bbl Negative duty lag: USD 20.0/bbl 1H12 v 1H11 and 2Q12 v 1Q12: negative impact of weaker rouble on deferred tax partly offset by costs benefit 1H12 average rouble rate at 30.6, 7% down 2Q12 average rouble rate at 31.0, 2% down

22 Net income – 1H12 v 1H11 22 Environment: Price & Duty lag: negative duty lag – USD 9.0/bbl, partly offset by 3% higher Urals and 60/66 duty regime benefit Forex: negative impact on deferred tax partly offset by forex benefit on rouble denominated costs Tariffs & Tax: primarily increases in MET and excise (USD 0.5 bn) rates and transportation tariffs (USD 0.1 bn) Performance: Operations: total TNK-BP oil and gas production up 79 mboe/d (+4.1%), MET relief utilization offset by costs increase and lower petroleum production volumes One-offs: primarily due to 1Q12 Linik impairment (USD 0.2 bn) vs. 1Q11 Kovykta disposal gains (USD 0.2 bn)

23 Revenues 23 Price: 2% sales growth, on the back of a 3% Urals price increase Volume and Mix: - 4 mmboe volume increase in crude and products due to 2.3% own crude production growth; - sales mix: products share decreased primarily due to a turnaround at the Ryazan refinery in 2Q and suspension of crude refining at Linik since March that were partly offset by processing at Mozyr Other sales: Primarily 8 mmboe increase in sales of gas, condensate and gas products as a result of production growth (incl. 4 mmboe Vietnam contribution) 1H11 1H12 Sales volumes up 12 mmboe, or 3% Products share* 41% in 1H12 vs 47% in 1H11 366 mmboe378 mmboe * Share from combined crude and oil products sales

24 Costs 24 Transportation costs: 7% weighted-average increase in Transneft and rail tariffs partly offset by forex (6%) Changes in routes and in sales mix resulted in costs growth by 1% due to increased crude export volumes via higher margin routes Opex & SD&A dynamics reflecting inflationary pressure mitigated by a weaker rouble: Costs down by 7% due to a weaker rouble Volume & Mix factor reflecting production growth One-offs: legacy environmental provision in 1H11 (USD 0.1bn)

25 Taxes 25 Export duties and Taxes other than income tax up 16% to USD 15.6 bn primarily due to higher Urals price and negative duty lag Increase in MET and excise rates starting 1 January 2012 MET reliefs: sustaining production at depleted fields in Orenburg and increase in non-taxable VCNG production Volume&Mix, other: primarily increase in crude export leading to growth in export duties Income tax increased by 15% to USD 1.3 bn primarily through the foreign exchange impact on the deferred tax charge, non-deductible LINIK impairment and operating losses in Ukraine 1H12 effective tax rate was 27.1%, above the 20% statutory rate primarily due to the foreign exchange impact on deferred tax and non-deductible costs

26 Net income – 2Q12 v 1Q12 26 Environment: Price: Urals down USD 10/bbl (9%) Duty lag: negative duty lag - USD 20.0/bbl Forex: primarily negative impact on deferred tax Performance: Operations: increased liquids production by 6 mb/d, partly offset by changes in mix in favor of oil One-offs: largely due to 1Q12 Linik impairment

27 Income statement – 2Q12 v 2Q11 27

28 Sources and Uses of Cash 28 Cash from operations (before WC and income tax paid) of USD 6.2 bn is net of taxes other than income tax and export duties payment of USD 15.6 bn Capex: field development, associated gas, refinery and retail network modernization Acquisitions: exploration assets in Brazil and jet fueling complex Koltsovo Net Borrowings: decrease primarily due to $0.5 bn Eurobond and other debt repayment

29 Debt and liquidity 29 Borrowing No new borrowings in 2Q12 Two committed lines for the total amount of USD 200 mln renewed Gearing level at 23% Average portfolio life at 3.53 years Liquidity Strong cash balances maintained Five undrawn committed lines in the total amount of USD 420 mln Smooth repayment profile Ratings Investment grade ratings maintained, however negative outlook assigned by Moody's to Baa2 rating (related to shareholder ownership uncertainty) Strong credit metrics maintained (1)Financial Indebtedness and Gearing are calculated based on IFRS (2)Finance Debt includes outstanding indebtedness under loan agreements and Eurobonds (3)Represents deferred payment obligation in favor of HRT related to Brazil assets acquisition (4)2Q2012 and 1Q2012 calculation includes the letter of credit; 2Q2011 Gearing calculated based on US GAAP amounts to 22% TNK-BP Financial indebtedness (1) 30.06.201231.03.201230.06.2011 Financial indebtedness, incl.: $8.0 bn$8.4 bn$6.9 bn - Finance debt (2) $7.2 bn$7.4 bn$6.9 bn - Letter of credit (3) $0.8 bn$1.0 bn- Gearing (4) 23%23%29%22% Fixed / Floating62% / 38%61% / 39%79% / 21% USD denominated99% 96% LT / ST debt84% / 16%85% / 15%77% / 23% Unsecured / Secured100% / 0% Portfolio average life3.53 years3.72 years3.86 years Financial indebtedness maturity profile as of 30 June 2012,,,,

30 Outlook 30 Margin enhancement Reserves Production  Gas monetization International diversification  Lower production decline in West Siberia  Pilot development of challenged reserves  Prepare to launch Yamal fields in 2016-2019  Progress with refinery modernization program  Increase retail presence in core markets  Launch new products and promote the new highway offer  Prepare for Rospan full field development  Negotiate long-term sales agreements for Rospan gas  Increase associated gas utilization Health, Safety and Environment: continues as a top priority Portfolio: pursue select M&A opportunities  Progress with exploration program in Brazil with focus on oil prone areas and gas monetization  Consider additional expansion opportunities in Vietnam

31 TNK-BP Holding – public subsidiary with leading investor returns 31  ¾ of 44 bn USD 2005 market cap returned to shareholders as of end August 2012  USD 1.63 bn attributable to non-controlling interest since 2005  16% dividend yield – highest in the industry*  98% - average dividend payout ratio based on RAS net income amounts * Cash returns are calculated as the share buyback, dividends and change in net debt Source: Bloomberg; Troika estimates * Amounts are stated in years to which dividends are attributable. Dividend calculation based on Company and registrar data mln USD * Source: Troika Dialog research, report dt. 21/09/12 Cash returns 2006-11 as a share of Mcap at end 2005* TNK-BP Holding dividends attributable to non-controlling interest*

32 32 Board of Directors Viktor Vekselberg Chairman, Renova Group Brian Gilvary Group CFO, BP Brian Gilvary Group CFO, BP David Peattie Head of BP Russia David Peattie Head of BP Russia Michael Townshend President of BP Iraq Michael Townshend President of BP Iraq Len Blavatnik Chairman, Access Industries Alex Knaster Chairman of Pamplona Capital Management Mikhail Fridman Chairman The Rt Hon Lord (George) Robertson of Port Ellen Deputy Chairman The Rt Hon Lord (George) Robertson of Port Ellen Deputy Chairman Evert Henkes Independent Director Alexander Shokhin Independent Director TBC Independent Director representatives of BP independent directors representatives of AAR

33 33 TNK-BP corporate structure

34 34 Management structure of TNK-BP Chairman of the Management Board Vacant Executive Director – Vice President Upstream A. Dodds Executive Director – Vice President Downstream A. Barrios Chief Financial Officer J. Muir Executive Director G. Khan Executive Vice President Support Services A. Tyomkin Executive Vice President Strategy and New Business Development M. Slobodin Executive Vice President Legal I. Maydannik Executive Director – Advisor to the Chairman of the MB V. Vekselberg members of the Management Board


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