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TNK-BP International Ltd. 9 Month 2012 Operational and Financial Results Moscow, 30 October, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "TNK-BP International Ltd. 9 Month 2012 Operational and Financial Results Moscow, 30 October, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 TNK-BP International Ltd. 9 Month 2012 Operational and Financial Results Moscow, 30 October, 2012

2 SPEAKERS 2 Jonathan Muir Chief Financial Officer Paul Maguire Senior Vice President – Financial Controller Gennady Shulenko Vice President, Finance and Treasury

3 Important notice NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER TO SELL OR ISSUE OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR ACQUIRE SECURITIES OF TNK-BP LTD (THE "COMPANY") OR ANY OF ITS SUBSIDIARIES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OR ANY JURISDICTION OR AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTO INVESTMENT ACTIVITY. NO PART OF THIS DOCUMENT, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION, SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. NO REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR UNDERTAKING, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR THE OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. NONE OF THE COMPANY OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THE DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS "FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS", WHICH INCLUDE ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY STATEMENTS PRECEDED BY, FOLLOWED BY OR THAT INCLUDE THE WORDS "TARGETS", "BELIEVES", "EXPECTS", "AIMS", "INTENDS", "WILL", "MAY", "ANTICIPATES", "WOULD", "COULD“ OR SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS OR THE NEGATIVE THEREOF. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS BEYOND THE COMPANY'S CONTROL THAT COULD CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE COMPANY TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, INCLUDING, AMONG OTHERS, THE ACHIEVEMENT OF ANTICIPATED LEVELS OF PROFITABILITY, GROWTH, COST AND SYNERGY OF RECENT ACQUISITIONS, THE IMPACT OF COMPETITIVE PRICING, THE ABILITY TO OBTAIN NECESSARY REGULATORY APPROVALS AND LICENSES, THE IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT, VOLATILITY IN STOCK MARKETS OR IN THE PRICE OF OUR SHARES, FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE IMPACT OF GENERAL BUSINESS AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE COMPANY'S PRESENT AND FUTURE BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE COMPANY WILL OPERATE IN THE FUTURE. BY THEIR NATURE, FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES BECAUSE THEY RELATE TO EVENTS AND DEPEND ON CIRCUMSTANCES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE FUTURE. THESE FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS AT THE DATE AS OF WHICH THEY ARE MADE, AND THE COMPANY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY OBLIGATION OR UNDERTAKING TO DISSEMINATE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE IN THE COMPANY'S EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANY CHANGE IN EVENTS, CONDITIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES ON WHICH ANY SUCH STATEMENTS ARE BASED. NEITHER THE COMPANY, NOR ANY OF ITS AGENTS, EMPLOYEES OR ADVISORS INTENDS OR HAS ANY DUTY OR OBLIGATION TO SUPPLEMENT, AMEND, UPDATE OR REVISE ANY OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED AS AT THE DATE OF THIS DOCUMENT AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. 3

4 Table of contents 4 1. Business Update 9M12 Highlights Health, Safety & Environment Upstream Downstream 2. Financial Performance Financial Highlights IFRS Business Environment Net Income – 9M12 v 9M11 Revenues Costs Taxes Net income - 3Q12 v 2Q12 Sources and Uses of Cash Debt and Liquidity

5 Business update

6 9M12 highlights 6 Growth complemented by strong free cash flow 2,024 mboe/d - total oil and gas production*, up 2.8% 18% greenfield contribution to liquids production, up from 14% in 9M11 Progress in major projects Rospan full field development Hydrocracking unit construction in Ryazan Yamal projects fiscal support Retail volumes up 13% to 3.1 mln tons Growing production of quality products with share of Euro-4 and 5 fuels up from 42% to 71% Potential gas exploration upside in Brazil Lan Do first gas on time, under budget offshore Vietnam USD 10.2 bn EBITDA USD 5.3 bn free cash flow Note: All data in this presentation are for 9M12 and comparisons are 9M12 v 9M11, unless otherwise noted * Including affiliates

7 Health, Safety and Environment Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate – 12 Month Rolling Average Spills Frequency – 12 Month Rolling Average 7 9M12 Health and Safety Reduction of TRIFR* by 21% Reduction of DAFWC** by 32% No major road accidents recorded v 5 accidents in the same period last year Environment Spills frequency continuously improving: –The number of spills per thousand tons produced down 13% –Spilt tons per thousand tons produced down 33% * Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) comprises the total number of fatalities, lost time injuries, restricted work cases and medical treatment cases as per OSHA definitions. ** (DAFWC) Number of days away from work cases per 200 thousand man-hours worked. *** The International Association of Oil and Gas Producers 9M12

8 Upstream: Production and renewal 8 2,024 mboe/d total hydrocarbon production, 2.8% increase y-o-y 73% exploration success rate, exploration spend of USD 227 mln 4 licenses acquired in Orenburg and Yamal with estimated resources of approx. 470 mln boe Strategy: Resources  Reserves  Production

9 Upstream: Liquids production in 9M12 1,757 mb/d liquids production incl. affiliates, up 1.4% VCNG production at 142 mb/d, up 50% Uvat production at 129 mb/d, up 24% Share of greenfields in total liquids production at 18%, up from 14% in 9M11 Orenburg liquids production down 0.7% West Siberia liquids production down 6.2% v 7.4% decline in 9M11** * Venezuelan deal closed on 10 June 2011, production not consolidated up to this date ** Not adjusted for OAO “Novosibirskneftegas” and OAO “Severnoeneftegas” Production – continued growth Greenfields – increasing contribution Brownfields – target to stabilize production 9 mb/d Changes in liquids production, including affiliates

10 Upstream: West Siberia 10 Effective waterflood management Waterflood patterns analyzed - optimization of water injection underway; 30% of over patterns to be evaluated in 2012 Organizational capability improvement project underway including skills assessment, training and peer review Improved drilling efficiency Mean Time Between Failure of electric submersible pumps increased to 649 days (from 615 in 2011) Low cost access drilling projects with Baker Hughes, Schlumberger and Halliburton targeting improved well construction Innovative technologies in place 66 pilot projects (465 jobs) are expected to be completed in 2012 “Asset of the future” concept of online monitoring of the field performance introduced at Samotlor for scaling up in Orenburg, Varyoganneftegas, Nyagan and Uvat Successful application of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells:  up to 7 stage fracs  80 jobs performed in Jan-Sept 2012 – will contribute over 400 th. tons in calendar  nearly 140 jobs planned for 2012  tests in difficult layers with 2-3x higher flows than conventional frac  advanced completion technology with fully controlled stage frac in cemented liner Successful application of multistage fracturing in horizontal wells:  up to 7 stage fracs  80 jobs performed in Jan-Sept 2012 – will contribute over 400 th. tons in calendar  nearly 140 jobs planned for 2012  tests in difficult layers with 2-3x higher flows than conventional frac  advanced completion technology with fully controlled stage frac in cemented liner Production decline lowered by 1.2% in 9M12 v 9M11

11 Yamal – major new oil province with 5.5 bn barrels of 3P reserves 11 Suzunskoye - design and exploration work to complete in 2012 Russkoye – trial crude transportation by road and rail to Nizhnevartovsk for delivery in Transneft system Messoyakha – first crude produced; action plan for 2013 – 2014 approved Tagulskoye – new productive layers added to base development scenario Russko-Rechenskoye – gas/condensate production levels determined Engineering survey completed Pipeline pilot construction planned for 2013 DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE – INTRAFIELD PIPELINE TAX INCENTIVES IN PLACE MET benefit Russkoye – life of field Messoyakha Russko-Rechenskoye Crude export duty benefit Suzunskoye Tagulskoye TAX INCENTIVES PROPOSED MET holidays extended till 2022 Suzunskoye Tagulskoye Unified mechanism for calculation of crude export duty – transparent and predictable rules for obtaining benefits till 2022

12 Upstream: Gas sales in 9M12 12 mboe/d Changes in gas sales, including affiliates 267 mboe/d gas sales incl. affiliates, up 12.8% 16 mboe/d gas sales from assets in Vietnam, biggest contribution Steady production growth 82% APG utilisation Gas processing agreement with Sibur on JV Yugragaspererabotka extended till 2026 JV set up to process APG at Zagorskaya plant in Orenburg Progressing major project execution Rospan - first stage of full field development supported by the Board; USD 600 mln allocated for 4Q12-1Q13 Long-term gas sales agreements being negotiated – target incremental gas delivery of 8.5 bcma in 2016 Developing gas value chain

13 13 International Projects: Vietnam, Venezuela, Brazil Vietnam Venezuela Brazil Key performance indicators, 9m12 (TNK-BP share) Production, mmboe EBITDA, USD mln Capex, USD mln Vietnam Venezuela Brazil Lan Do development project successfully completed with first gas delivered on 7 October No lost time injuries, no reportable spills amid growing operations PetroMonagas: record production of 140 mb/d (gross) following successful drilling campaign Junin-6: first production within Early Oil project officially launched in September Current negative effect on EBITDA due to impact of discounting of outstanding payments from PDVSA 2 successful gas wells drilled in 3Q with HRT-9 reported as highest flow-rate from any on-shore Brazil well Significant improvement of drilling efficiency: HRT-9 drilled in 60 days v 127 days average in 2011 Letter of intent for gas monetization signed with Petrobras Key personnel placed in TNK-BP office in Brazil and seconded to HRT project organization

14 Downstream: Refining 14 Strategy: Maximization of integrated business value of production Throughput of 644 mb/d at Russian refineries in 9M12 v 654 mb/d in 9M11 due to turnarounds Refining margins of USD 10/bbl in 3Q12 Successful Euro-5 delivery Diesel and gasoline produced at Saratov and YANOS Euro-5 compliant since July 1 Significant increase in Euro-5 fuels at Ryazan Incremental performance effect of approx. USD 60 mln due to excise rates differentiation Hydrocracker project at Ryazan supported by the Board; other major projects on schedule Increasing share of Euro-4 and Euro-5 fuels Note: Share of Euro-4 and Euro-5 fuels in total gasoline and diesel output of TNK-BP Russian refineries %

15 Downstream: Supply, trading and logistics, retail and B2B 15 Retail Expanding presence in the south of Russia - consolidation of TNK-South joint venture, incl. 121 retail sites and 11 oil depots High-margin sales of accompanying goods at retail sites delivering USD 193 mln in revenue, 5% up y-o-y B2B Direct “in wing” sales to airlines increased to 74% v 42% in 9M11 Expansion of jet fuel sales to airports in Novy Urengoy and Ivanovo Sales of Valvoline premium brand lubes launched at over 3,000 retail sites Supply, trading and logistics Price-setting mechanism for wholesale gasoline and diesel sales agreed by Federal Anti-Monopoly Service ESPO crude shipments of 25 mln bbl, 26% up on 9M11 Retail volumes in Russia – 13% growth th.litres per site daily

16 Financial performance

17 Financial Highlights 17

18 9M 2011 under IFRS 18 9M11 and 3Q11 numbers have been restated for comparative purposes The main change relates to deferred tax, with higher forex driven volatility under IFRS ‘Affiliates’ relates to the change in Slavneft’s functional currency from the USD to the Rouble

19 Business Environment 19 9M12 v 9M11: Negative duty lag offset by stronger Urals and 60/66 benefit Urals up 1% to USD 110.8/bbl Negative duty lag: USD 3.5/bbl 60/66 regime benefit: USD 1.5/bbl EBITDA benefit in respect of available crude 3Q12 v 2Q12: Stronger environment due to both positive duty lag and price growth Urals up 2% to USD 109.0/bbl Positive duty lag: USD 20.0/bbl 9M12 v 9M11 and 3Q12 v 2Q12: positive impact of average weaker rouble on costs 9M12 average rouble rate at 31.1, 8% weaker 3Q12 average rouble rate at 32.0, 3% weaker Stronger rouble (30.9) at 3Q end: USD 0.5 bn under IFRS deferred tax benefit q-o-q

20 Net income – 9M12 v 9M11 20 Environment: Price & Duty lag: negative duty lag – USD 3.5/bbl offset by 60/66 duty regime benefit and 1% higher Urals Forex: positive impact on rouble denominated costs due to a weaker rouble together with the forex benefit on deferred tax Tariffs & Tax: primarily increases in MET and excise (USD 0.6 bn) rates and transportation tariffs (USD 0.2 bn) as well as the abolition of export duty allowance for VCNG in May 2011 (0.2 bn) Performance: Operations: total TNK-BP oil and gas production up 55 mboe/d (+2.8%), MET relief utilization partly offset by a 6% reduction in refining throughput and by inflationary pressure on costs One-offs: primarily due to 1Q12 Linik impairment (USD 0.3 bn) and 2011 disposal gains (USD 0.3 bn) partly offset by a gain on Novosibirsk assets disposal (USD 0.1 bn) in 3Q12

21 Revenues 21 Price: 2% sales growth, on the back of a 1.4% Urals price increase Volume and Mix of crude oil and oil products: - 10 mmboe volume increase due to 1.2% own crude oil production growth together with a stock reduction from increased sales - sales mix: products share decreased primarily due to suspension of crude refining at Linik since March, partly offset by processing at Mozyr Other sales: Primarily 11 mmboe increase in sales of gas, condensate and gas products as a result of production growth (incl. 4.8 mmboe Vietnam contribution) 9M11 9M12 Sales volumes up 19 mmboe, or 4% Products share* 42% in 9M12 vs 46% in 9M mmboe575 mmboe * Share from combined crude and oil products sales

22 Costs 22 Transportation costs: 7% weighted-average increase in Transneft and rail tariffs was offset by forex (7%) Changes in routes and in sales mix resulted in costs growth by 1% due to increased crude export volumes via higher margin routes Opex & SD&A dynamics reflect the weaker rouble partly offset by inflationary pressure : Costs down by 7% due to a weaker rouble Volume & Mix factor reflecting production growth Other: costs of operating a larger retail network partly offset by savings from the Linik suspension

23 Taxes 23 Export duties and Taxes other than income tax up 7% to USD 22.6 bn primarily due to higher Urals price and a higher duty reference price Increase in MET and excise rates starting 1 January 2012 MET reliefs: sustaining production at depleted fields in Orenburg and increase in non-taxable VCNG production Volume&Mix, other: primarily increase in crude export leading to growth in export duties Income tax decreased by 9% to USD 1.9 bn primarily through lower taxable profits and the foreign exchange impact on the deferred tax charge. 9M12 effective tax rate was 22.8%, above the 20% statutory rate primarily due to non-deductible costs, including impairment and operating losses in Ukraine, partly offset by the foreign exchange impact on deferred tax

24 Net income – 3Q12 v 2Q12 24 Environment: Price: Urals up USD 2.5/bbl (2%), realised crude domestic price up 24% supported by duty lag Duty lag: positive duty lag – USD 20/bbl Forex: a significantly stronger rouble at the end of 3Q vs 2Q had a positive impact on deferred tax together with the positive effect on costs of a weaker average rouble q-o-q Performance: Operations: positive impact of selling during 3Q previously accumulated crude and product inventory, partly offset by a net decrease of total production by 29 mboe/d (-1.5%)

25 Income Statement – 3Q12 v 3Q11 25

26 Sources and Uses of Cash 26 Cash from operations (before WC and income tax paid) of USD 10.2 bn is net of taxes other than income tax and export duty payments of USD 22.6 bn Capex: field development, associated gas, refinery and retail network modernization Acquisitions: exploration assets in Brazil, jet fueling complex Koltsovo partly offset with Novosibirsk assets disposal Net Borrowings: decrease primarily due to $0.5 bn Eurobond and other debt repayment Equity: TNK-Yug minority buy-out

27 Debt and liquidity 27 Borrowing and Portfolio USD 675 mln unsecured loan facility obtained from a club of 9 international banks in September Second USD 200 mln instalment paid under the Brazilian LC (3) in September Gearing level at 17% Average portfolio life at 3.23 years Liquidity Strong cash balances maintained Five undrawn committed lines in the total amount of USD 440 mln available Smooth repayment profile maintained Ratings Investment grade ratings Strong credit metrics maintained (1)Financial Indebtedness and gearing are calculated based on IFRS (2)Finance debt includes outstanding indebtedness under loan agreements and Eurobonds (3)Represents deferred payment obligation in favor of HRT related to Brazil assets acquisition TNK-BP Financial indebtedness (1) Actual Actual Actual Financial indebtedness, incl.: USD 8.3 bnUSD 8.0 bn USD 7.8 bn - Finance debt (2) USD 7.7 bnUSD 7.2 bnUSD 7.8 bn - Letter of credit (3) USD 0.6 bnUSD 0.8 bn- Gearing 17%23%23% 22%22% Fixed / Floating 58%/42% 62%/38% 64%/36% USD denominated 100%99% 97%97% LT / ST debt 84%/16% 86%/14% Unsecured / Secured 100%/0% Average portfolio life 3.23 years 3.53 years 3.84 years Financial indebtedness maturity profile as of 30 September 2012


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