1. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center WRAP Regional Haze CMAQ 1996 Model Performance and for Section 309 March 27, 2003, Denver, CO Gail Tonnesen University of California Riverside

2. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center CMAQ Domain Clean boundary conditions and initial conditions using EPA defaults with some updates to BC based on clean IMPROVE sites PM data.

3. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center CMAQ Description: April 2001 release Domain: –85 columns, 95 rows, 18 layers, 36km grid cells horizontally –Lambert-Conformal Projection Emissions: based on NEI with many updates: –MOBILE6, EMFAC, Biogenics: BEIS2, Point, Road Dust, Wild Fire (no Ag or Rx), Point for Mexico, no fugitive dust Meteorology: –From EPA MM5 1996 simulation, processed with MCIP v.1 –23 layer MM5 averaged to 18 layers. Chemistry: CB-IV with extensions –SO2 oxidation into sulfate aerosol –VOC oxidation into secondary organic aerosol –Coupled with RADM aqueous chemistry Advection scheme is PPM

4. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Emissions Processing SMOKE is used for emissions processing. Ported SMOKE to Linux Quality Assurance: – SMOKE QA reports –Post processing to total emissions subcategories for all layers and all hours.

5. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Evaluation Overview IMPROVE database: –Raw Dataset Analysis period: –Year 1996 –total of 104 days available ambient data –Raw: ~53 stations Evaluation species –SO4, NO3, Bext, PM2.5, PM10, OC, EC

6. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center IMPROVE & Protocol Sites for Evaluation No 1996 IMPROVE Datawith 1996 IMPROVE Data

7. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center CASTNET Sites for Evaluation No 1996 CASTNET Datawith 1996 CASTNET Data

8. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center CMAQ to IMPROVE Species Mapping CompoundIMPROVE SpeciesCMAQ Mapping SO4 ASO4J + ASO4I NO3 ANO3J + ANO3I OC1.4*(OC1+OC2+OC3+OC4+OP)AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI EC (LAC)EC1+EC2+EC3-OPAECJ + AECI SOIL2.2*Al + 2.49*Si + 1.63*Ca + 2.42*Fe + 1.94*Ti A25I +A25J PM2.5_Measured (PM25) MF1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) PM2.5_Recon (RCFM) 1.375*SO4 +1.29*NO3 + EC + OC + SOIL Same as PM2.5_Measured CMMT-MFACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL PM10MT1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + (ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL) Bext_Reconstructed (1/Mm) 10 + 4.125*f(RH) b *SO4 + 3.87*f(RH)*NO3 + 4*OC + 10*EC + SOIL + 0.6*CM 10 + 4.125*fRH*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 3.87*fRH*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + 4*(AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + 10*(AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + 0.6*(ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL)

9. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Modeling Evaluation Procedure Analysis procedures: –Compute daily averaged model level-one concentration. –Extract species information & concentration from IMPROVE datasets –Identify monitoring sites within model domains (convert lat/lon into grid cell) –Match model predictions with IMPROVE datasets –Generate scatter plots and time-series plots of model results vs. IMPROVE datasets.

10. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Results from Analysis Program (complete results at: www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc) Time series data Scatter plots –All Site and All Days –All Site for One Day –All Days for One Site –All Days for Defined Sub-regions Statistical analysis –Regression (r-squared) –Mean normalized bias (MNB) and error (MNE)

11. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Annual Time-Series Plots – SO 4 Bryce Canyon, UTGrand Canyon, AZ

12. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Annual Time-Series Plots – NO 3 Bryce Canyon, UTGrand Canyon, AZ

13. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Annual Time-Series Plots – OC Bryce Canyon, UTGrand Canyon, AZ

14. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Annual Time-Series Plots – EC Bryce Canyon, UTGrand Canyon, AZ

15. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Annual Time-Series Plots – SOIL Bryce Canyon, UTGrand Canyon, AZ

16. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - Summer

17. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - Winter

18. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center

19. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center

20. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center

21. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Conclusions for 1996 Model Performance Evaluation Model over predicts most species in the winter. Model performance is best in summer. Model does not get the peaks on the correct day: –Precedent from SAMI longterm regional O3 model –Should consider “unpaired in time & space” evaluation. Coarse mass is under predicted –Missing windblown dust emissions inventory. Many upgrades planned for Section 308 modeling.

22. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Sensitivity Runs EPA modeling showed strong seasonality in NH3 emissions: –We reduced winter NH3 emissions by 50% –This reduced the NO3 over prediction to be consistent with other species. –Still need to explore winter vertical mixing. Western BC were too high –Reduced western BC based on IMPROVE data at clean western sites.

23. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center Sensitivity to 50% NH3 change

24. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center

25. University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center