2. Do natural disturbance regimes provide realistic guidelines for managing early-successional habitats in New England forests?

3. Major forest types in northern U.S. Lull (1968)

6. ~ 1880

7. ~ 1930 >50% of forest vertebrates utilize early-successional stands

9. Obligate users RELATIVE USE 0 1.0 102030405060708090100 AGE OF STAND 0.5

10. Golden-winged warbler USGS

11. FOREST CLEARING FARM ABANDONMENT FOREST MATURATION Relative abundance of early-successional habitats RETURN TO PRE-COLUMBIAN CONDITIONS ?

12. How much was there?

13. source: Harvard Forest

14. Methods to Estimate Natural Disturbance Regimes Lorimer and White (2003) Sedimentary pollen and charcoal Presettlement land surveys Descriptions by early naturalists Reconstruction of disturbance history in old-growth stands Modern records and aerial photos Computer models

15. Large-scale fires infrequent in New England, ~800-1,200 years 1790 survey in NY found that 1% of landscape burned or open.

16. Small-scale wind storms: kill one to several trees. In eastern U. S., 0.2- 2%/year of all forests are affected by wind throw. At any time, 5-50% of a forest may be affected.

17. Large-scale wind storms: hurricanes or tornadoes at irregular intervals (1635, 1788, 1815, 1938, and 1944). 1938 hurricane affected >240,000 ha in New England Boose et al. (2001)

18. 85 yr 150 yr 380 yr >380 yr Approximate return interval of damaging (F2) hurricanes in New England. Boose et al. (2001)

20. Wilson 2005 Lumber Exports (Wilson 2005) vs Witness Trees Projections (Lorimer 1977): very different estimates of the prominence of white pine (>10x), indicating a large difference in the frequency and scale of disturbance in these forests.

21. Northern Hardwoods seedling/sapling (1-15 yrs): 1-3% young pole (15-30 yrs): 1-3% 2-6% Pitch Pine- Scrub Oak seedling/sapling: 10-30% young pole: 10-30% 20-60% (Lorimer and White 2003)

22. Trani et al. (2001) 9% 4% Early-successional forests in the eastern U.S.

23. What About Biotic Disturbances?

24. Contemporary Herbivores

25. flooded forest pond wet meadow shrubs forest

26. Open water areas created by beaver dams on the Kabetogama Peninsula, northern MN. 1940: 1% of area 1986: 13% of area Johnston and Naiman (1990) How large an area affected?

27. Northern Hardwoods seedling/sapling 1-3% young pole 1-3% beaver flowages ~3.5% (Gotie and Jenks 1982) 5-11% (Lorimer and White 2003)

28. Even if we can accurately estimate HRNV, are these values relevant in contemporary landscapes?

29. 40/mi 2 1100/mi 2 POPULATION DENSITY

30. Hoving (2001) Road Density in the Northeast

35. 0 20 40 60 80 100 COMPOSITION (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 RACCOON/CANID TRACKS CANIDS RACCOONS LANDSCAPE FOR DEV AGR

36. 2.5 ha 5 ha Winter mortality: 69%35% Patches

37. OCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY FOOD QUALITY LARGE PATCHES SMALL PATCHES THRESHOLD? CONDITION-SENSITIVE PREDATION

38. 9 JAN 16 JAN23 JAN 30 JAN 6 FEB 13 FEB20 FEB27 FEB 6 MAR 13 MAR 20 MAR27 MAR 3 APR 10 APR 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 UN:C RATIO 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 3 2 5 13 11 13 12 6 2 9 7 7 8 5 5 5 8 5 4 4

39. New approaches needed to provide habitat

40. Parcelization or Fragmentation potential to mimic natural disturbances restoration of shrublands/ modified disturbance regime (sliding scale) modified disturbances (large and clustered/connected) limited extreme Forest Age young old

41. MANAGING INDUCED METAPOPULATIONS: may require deviating from HRNV ME NH VT NY MA CT RI

45. DESCRIBING HABITAT DISTURBANCES SizeFrequencyIntensity

47. Do natural disturbance regimes provide realistic guidelines for managing early-successional habitats in New England forests?

49. Human-generated disturbances

50. Pisgah Forest in southwestern New Hampshire three years after 1938 hurricane.