1. The ‘Pure Anglo Saxon Model’ and transitions within upper secondary education (USE) in England Ann Hodgson and Ken Spours UCL IOE ECER, Budapest, September 2015

2. Four points 1.The English USE system is a Pure Anglo-Saxon Model (PASM). PASM = GERM + Conservative education reforms 2.PASM negatively affects middle attainers (The Missing Middle) at four transition points because of combined effects of track-based qualifications reform; institutional competition and deregulated youth labour market 3.PASM could be creating perfect storm conditions – the English version of USE may be about to go into reverse in terms of post-16 performance, progression and transition - affecting the ‘Missing Middle’ 4.Urgent need to create a new local opportunity landscape – collaborative, social partnership model at local level to promote progression and transitions as part of a high performing, economically and socially relevant USE system

3. Methodology Two national studies –ESRC research project ‘The Impact of Policy on Teaching, Learning and Assessment in the Learning and Skills Sector’ –The ‘Nuffield Review of 14-19 Education in England and Wales’ Three local studies in London, South West and East England involving fieldwork with young people, schools, colleges, local authorities and employers

4. Raising of Participation Age (RPA) to 18 Elective single subjects and narrow academic specialisation post-16 Weak vocational system and small work-based route Very diverse and highly competitive institutions Overwhelming focus on transitions to higher education Medium participation and middle attaining system (PISA) – evidence of ‘early school leaving’ The English USE system

5. The Pure Anglo-Saxon Model The Pure Anglo Saxon Model (PASM) = GERM + new Conservative policy reforms Global education reform model (GERM) – standardised curriculum focused on outcomes; elevation of core subjects suited to global testing; low risk strategies for reaching learning goals; test-based accountability systems; corporate governance + New Conservative policy reforms - selective track- based qualifications; curriculum traditionalism; marketisation and privatisation; voluntarist youth labour market; and policy borrowing for a more authoritarian pedagogy (e.g. Shanghai and mathematics)

6. Who are the Missing Middle? The Missing Middle – a neglected category of young people located between high attainers in A Levels and NEETs/Apprentices Focus of Government policy EBacc attainment24% AAB A Level by 1817% 3 A*A grade A Levels10% AAB in a facilitating subject 9% Russell Group university entrants 9% Missing Middle post-16 ‘Marginal’ A Level learners20.0% Voc L314.6% Voc L213.2% Voc L1 6.0% Total 53%

7. Transition 1. How the preparatory phase of upper secondary education (14-16) supports young people for transition at 16+. Transition 2. How young people choose or are selected for their post-16 route. Transition 3. How young people perform in their first year of post-16 study and whether they are able successfully to complete USE within the expected norm of two years. Transition 4. How young people move into the labour market and higher education. Policy and the four transitions

8. How young people choose or are chosen for programmes of study for 14-16 year olds Focus on ‘traditional subjects’ with lower status and less space for vocational qualifications Changes to the structure and assessment of General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs) Changes to vocational qualifications – more external assessment Effects on examination performance at 16 and access to post-16 study? Transition 1: Narrower curriculum

9. Transition 2. Institutional competition How young people choose or are selected for their post-16 route Institutional competition and lack of objective careers education, information, advice and guidance (CEIAG) Selection practices for post-16 study depend on supply and demand ‘Transitions tripartism’ – smaller academic route; unstable vocational route and invisible apprenticeship route

10. Transition 3. The 17+ barrier How young people perform in their first year of post-16 study 17+ and drop-out, failure, reduced size of study programme – affecting about one third of advanced level cohort –Gap between GCSE and A Levels –Institutional competition and mismatch of student and study programme –Poor progression preparation for 14-16 year olds –Some inadequate institutional capacity for supporting effective advanced level study

11. Transition 4. Access to HE & work How young people gain access to higher education and/or make a transition to the youth labour market at 18+ Limited options for middle attainers HE still largest route but becoming more stratified Weak work-based route and low numbers of apprenticeships Lack of employer engagement Historical decline in ‘youth jobs’ Impact of 2008 Crash and policy of Austerity

12. Perfect storm conditions? Prospects for the Missing Middle affected by a ‘perfect storm’ combination of factors –Changes to qualifications – are institutions becoming more selective post-16 in relation to Level 3? –Linear A Levels and a more track-based, insular and narrower system –Less accessible vocational study - external assessment –Intensified institutional competition – less curriculum choice, poor CEIAG and unclear progression routes –Spending cuts - smaller and narrower programmes and inadequately funded three-year study –Small work-based route that stubbornly refuses to grow –A continuing depressed youth labour market –Economic policy of austerity that disproportionately affects young people

13. A New Opportunity Landscape Progression and transitions of 14-19 year olds are made at the local level and determined by local actors Collaborative action is required at the local level to open up progression routes and opportunities for the whole cohort & particularly the ‘Missing Middle’ Central role for new networks of stakeholders and provider institutions (e.g. 14+ Progression and Transition Boards) National policy needs to support local action – funding, inspection, employer co-ordination

14. Further reading Hodgson, A. and Spours, K. (2013): An ecological analysis of the dynamics of localities: a 14+ low opportunity progression equilibrium in action, Journal of Education and Work, DOI:10.1080/13639080.2013.805187 Hodgson, A. and Spours, K. (2013) Middle attainers and 14-19 progression in England: half served by New Labour and now overlooked by the Coalition? British Educational Research Journal, 41 (3) 467-482 Hodgson A. and Spours (2013) ‘After school: Promoting opportunities for all young people in a locality’ in J. Clifton (ed) Excellence and Equity: Tackling educational disadvantage in England’s secondary schools, London IPPR. Hodgson, A. and Spours, K. (2014) Heavy fog in the Channel: Continent cut off’ - reform of upper secondary education from the perspective of English exceptionalism. European Educational Research Journal, 13 (6) 683-698 Hodgson, A. and Spours, K. (2015) The Missing Middle: How middle attaining students in 14-19 education are being overlooked and squeezed by policy Briefing Paper for the House of Lords Committee on Social Mobility for School Leavers 1 July 2015 Hodgson, A. and Spours, K. (2015 forthcoming) ‘Young people and transitions in upper secondary education in England: the influence of policy on the ‘local opportunity landscape’ in K. Brunila, C. and L. Lundahl (eds) Youth on the Move: Youth Transitions in International and Critical Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury All publications can be found at kenspours.orgkenspours.org