1. Chapter 20 Climate Change and Ozone Depletion

3. Scientists know with virtual certainty that: Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times are well- documented and understood. The atmospheric buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 1.0 to 1.7°F occurred from 1906-2005. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans. The major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. It is therefore virtually certain that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise over the next few decades. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to warm the planet.

4. What's Not Certain? Important scientific questions remain about how much warming will occur, how fast it will occur, and how the warming will affect the rest of the climate system including precipitation patterns and storms. Answering these questions will require advances in scientific knowledge in a number of areas.

5. PAST CLIMATE AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT  Over the past 900,000 years, the troposphere has experienced prolonged periods of global cooling and global warming.  For the past 1,000 years, temperatures have remained fairly stable but began to rise during the last century.

6. How Do We Know What Temperatures Were in the Past?  Scientists analyze tiny air bubbles trapped in ice cores learn about past: troposphere composition. troposphere composition. temperature trends. temperature trends. greenhouse gas concentrations. greenhouse gas concentrations. solar, snowfall, and forest fire activity. solar, snowfall, and forest fire activity. Figure 20-3

7. The Natural Greenhouse Effect  Three major factors shape the earth’s climate: The sun. The sun. Greenhouse effect that warms the earth’s lower troposphere and surface because of the presence of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse effect that warms the earth’s lower troposphere and surface because of the presence of greenhouse gases. Oceans store CO 2 and heat, evaporate and receive water, move stored heat to other parts of the world. Oceans store CO 2 and heat, evaporate and receive water, move stored heat to other parts of the world. Natural cooling process through water vapor in the troposphere (heat rises). Natural cooling process through water vapor in the troposphere (heat rises).

8. Major Greenhouse Gases  The major greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases have always been present in the earth’s troposphere in varying concentrations. These gases have always been present in the earth’s troposphere in varying concentrations. Fluctuations in these gases, plus changes in solar output are the major factors causing the changes in tropospheric temperature over the past 400,000 years. Fluctuations in these gases, plus changes in solar output are the major factors causing the changes in tropospheric temperature over the past 400,000 years.

9. FACTORS AFFECTING THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE  Some factors can amplify (positive feedback) and some can dampen (negative feedback) projected global warming.  There is uncertainty about how much CO 2 and heat the oceans can remove from the troposphere and how long the heat and CO 2 might remain there.  Warmer temperatures create more clouds that could warm or cool the troposphere.

10. FACTORS AFFECTING THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE  Aerosol and soot pollutants produced by human activities can warm or cool the atmosphere, but such effects will decrease with any decline in outdoor air pollution.  Warmer air can release methane gas stored in bogs, wetlands, and tundra soils and accelerate global warming.

11. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING  A warmer climate would have beneficial and harmful effects but poor nations in the tropics would suffer the most.  Some of the world’s floating ice and land- based glaciers are slowly melting and are helping warm the troposphere by reflecting less sunlight back into space.

12. Changing Ocean Currents  Global warming could alter ocean currents and cause both excessive warming and severe cooling. Figure 20-12

13. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING  A warmer troposphere can decrease the ability of the ocean to remove and store CO 2 by decreasing the nutrient supply for phytoplankton and increasing the acidity of ocean water.  Global warming will lead to prolonged heat waves and droughts in some areas and prolonged heavy rains and increased flooding in other areas.

14. Effects on Biodiversity: Winners and Losers  Possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of beech trees based on ecological evidence and computer models. Figure 20-13

15. Fig. 20-13, p. 478 Present range Overlap Future range Beech

16. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING  In a warmer world, agricultural productivity may increase in some areas and decrease in others.  Crop and fish production in some areas could be reduced by rising sea levels that would flood river deltas.  Global warming will increase deaths from: Heat and disruption of food supply. Heat and disruption of food supply. Spread of tropical diseases to temperate regions. Spread of tropical diseases to temperate regions. Increase the number of environmental refugees. Increase the number of environmental refugees.

17. Some impacts from increasing temperatures are already happening. Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. Researcher Bill Fraser has tracked the decline of the Adélie penguins on Antarctica, where their numbers have fallen from 32,000 breeding pairs to 11,000 in 30 years. Sea level rise became faster over the last century. Some butterflies, foxes, and alpine plants have moved farther north or to higher, cooler areas. Precipitation (rain and snowfall) has increased across the globe, on average. Spruce bark beetles have boomed in Alaska thanks to 20 years of warm summers. The insects have chewed up 4 million acres of spruce trees.

18. Other effects could happen later this century, if warming continues. Sea levels are expected to rise between 7 and 23 inches by the end of the century, and continued melting at the poles could add between 4 and 8 inches. Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger. Species that depend on one another may become out of sync. For example, plants could bloom earlier than their pollinating insects become active. Floods and droughts will become more common. Rainfall in Ethiopia, where droughts are already common, could decline by 10 percent over the next 50 years. Less fresh water will be available. If the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru continues to melt at its current rate, it will be gone by 2100, leaving thousands of people who rely on it for drinking water and electricity without a source of either. Some diseases will spread, such as malaria carried by mosquitoes. Ecosystems will change—some species will move farther north or become more successful; others won’t be able to move and could become extinct.

19. Removing and Storing CO 2  Methods for removing CO 2 from the atmosphere or from smokestacks and storing (sequestering) it. Figure 20-15

20. Fig. 20-15, p. 482 Tree plantation Coal power plant Tanker delivers CO2 from plant to rig Oil rig CO2 is pumped down from rig for deep ocean disposal Spent oil reservoir is used for CO 2 deposit Abandoned oil field Crop field Spent oil reservoir is used for Crop field Switchgrass = CO2 deposit = CO2 pumping CO 2 deposit CO2 is pumped down to reservoir through abandoned oil field

21. International Climate Negotiations: The Kyoto Protocol Treaty on global warming which first phase went into effect January, 2005 with 189 countries participating. Treaty on global warming which first phase went into effect January, 2005 with 189 countries participating. It requires 38 participating developed countries to cut their emissions of CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O to 5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012. It requires 38 participating developed countries to cut their emissions of CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O to 5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012. Developing countries were excluded. Developing countries were excluded. The U.S. did not sign, but California and Maine are participating. The U.S. did not sign, but California and Maine are participating. U.S. did not sign because developing countries such as China, India and Brazil were excluded.U.S. did not sign because developing countries such as China, India and Brazil were excluded.

22. Solving the problem sustainably  Redesigning human systems according to sound principles of sustainability could help alleviate the problem of global warming.  Population stabilization can help reduce our demand for fossil fuels and other greenhouse-enhancing activities such as deforestation.  Restoring forests, especially in the tropics, could have a profound effect on global carbon dioxide levels.

23. Solving the problem sustainably  Recycling and energy efficiency greatly reduce energy demand and cut greenhouse gas emissions.  Renewable energy technologies can provide us with much-needed power, with little or no impact on global climate.  Solving the problem of global warming will require the efforts of all sectors of society and every country on Earth.

24. OZONE DEPLETION IN THE STRATOSPHERE  Less ozone in the stratosphere allows for more harmful UV radiation to reach the earth’s surface. The ozone layer keeps about 95% of the sun’s harmful UV radiation from reaching the earth’s surface. The ozone layer keeps about 95% of the sun’s harmful UV radiation from reaching the earth’s surface. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs) have lowered the average concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs) have lowered the average concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere. In 1988 CFCs were no longer manufactured. In 1988 CFCs were no longer manufactured.

25. Sun Once free, the chlorine atom is off to attack another ozone molecule and begin the cycle again. A free oxygen atom pulls the oxygen atom off the chlorine monoxide molecule to form O2. The chlorine atom and the oxygen atom join to form a chlorine monoxide molecule (ClO). UV radiation Cl C F The chlorine atom attacks an ozone (O 3 ) molecule, pulling an oxygen atom off it and leaving an oxygen molecule (O 2 ). Cl O O O O O O O O O Ultraviolet light hits a chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) molecule, such as CFCl 3, breaking off a chlorine atom and leaving CFCl 2. O Fig. 20-18, p. 486 Stepped Art

26. Human Health Worse sunburn More eye cataracts More skin cancers Immune system suppression Food and Forests Reduced yields for some crops Reduced seafood supplies from reduced phytoplankton Decreased forest productivity for UV-sensitive tree species Wildlife Increased eye cataracts in some species Decreased population of aquatic species sensitive to UV radiation Reduced population of surface phytoplankton Disrupted aquatic food webs from reduced phytoplankton Air Pollution and Materials Increased acid deposition Increased photochemical smog Degradation of outdoor paints and plastics Global Warming Accelerated warming because of decreased ocean uptake of CO2 from atmosphere by phytoplankton and CFCs acting as greenhouse gases Effects of Ozone Depletion Natural Capital Degradation Fig. 20-21, p. 488

27. Case Study: Skin Cancer  Structure of the human skin and relationship between radiation and skin cancer. Figure 20-22

28. Fig. 20-22, p. 489 This long-wavelength (low-energy) form of UV radiation causes aging of the skin, tanning, and sometimes sunburn. It penetrates deeply and may contribute to skin cancer. This shorter-wavelength (high-energy) form of UV radiation causes sunburn, premature aging, and wrinkling. It is largely responsible for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and plays a role in malignant melanoma. Epidermis Squamous Cell Carcinoma Basal Cell Carcinoma Melanoma Sweat gland Dermis Squamous cells Thin layer of dead cells Basal layer Melanocyte cells Blood vessels Ultraviolet B Ultraviolet A Hair Basalcell