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To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. KR: Chapter.

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Presentation on theme: "To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. KR: Chapter."— Presentation transcript:

1 To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. KR: Chapter 4 Managing Project Process

2 The Definition of a “Project” A project is usually a one-time activity with a well-defined set of desired end results. It can be divided into subtasks that must be accomplished in order to achieve the project goals. The project is complex enough that the subtasks require careful coordination and control in terms of timing, precedence, cost, and performance. The project itself must often be coordinated with other projects being carried out by the same parent organization.

3 The Definition of a “Project” Required performance Performance Budget limit Cost Due Date Target Cumulative Time (“schedule”)

4 Hallmarks of a project A project is unique/nonrepetitive. A project has a specific beginning, goal, purpose, and end. Thus a project is also temporary. Projects must be give specific resources. Projects usually cross functional lines and are organized as a matrix. Projects are for use by others: the usufructuary and the user. Projects generate systemic conflict. Projects are “open veins” from which the entity loses blood and where infection enter.

5 Project Planning Planning the performance dimension A general project planning process Work breakdown structure Planning the scheduling dimension Start with WBS Collect time estimates Approaches to scheduling Milestone Bar chart Network diagram Probabilistic time estimates

6 Project Planning (cont.) Planning the cost dimension It is an estimation Top-down vs. bottom-up approach Project cost accounting system Cost elements/cost centers Account code structure – Charge numbers Cost minimizing (crashing) Project cost schedule – how much and when the money is needed? Resource leveling – leveling the usage of different resources

7 Project Planning Process Overview – a short summary of objectives and scope Objectives – a more detailed statement of the general goals General approach – managerial and technical approaches to the work Contractual aspects – contractual reporting and requirements Schedules – schedules and all milestone events Resources – budget and cost monitoring and control procedures Personnel – expected personnel requirements and their skills Evaluation methods – procedure for monitoring and evaluating Potential problems – preparation for problems

8 Work Breakdown Structure Start with statement of work (SOW) Divide the project into small work packages, tasks, or activities Guides to breakdown Product-oriented, action-oriented or hybrid WBS Define performance measures Establishing base for scheduling and budget planning

9 Work-level Nomenclature in Projects Program* Project* Subproject Key phase* Work Package* Activity* Subactivity Task* Subtask Individual contributor* Item *Most commonly used denominators. N.B.: This as a “shopping list.” Each organization has its own vocabulary. Naming conventions are part of the definition duty of a program or project manager.

10 Each task/work unit should: Have definite beginning and end. Have clear performance criteria. Be budgetable. Be a single meaningful job. Have responsibility assigned to individual.

11 Activity Relationships Activity Relationship T and U cannot begin until S has been completed. AOAAON T U S 3 4 1 T U 2 S Figure 4.1

12 St. Adolf’s Hospital Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop an information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J Example 4.1

13 Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J St. Adolf’s Hospital AON Network Start A B C Example 4.1

14 Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J St. Adolf’s Hospital AON Network FinishStart A B C D E F G H I J K Figure 4.2 Example 4.1

15 Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J St. Adolf’s Hospital Completion Time FinishStart K6K6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 E 24 G 35 H 40 J4J4 A 12 B9B9 Figure 4.4

16 Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J St. Adolf’s Hospital Completion Time FinishStart K6K6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 E 24 G 35 H 40 J4J4 A 12 B9B9

17 Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J St. Adolf’s Hospital Completion Time FinishStart K6K6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 E 24 G 35 H 40 J4J4 A 12 B9B9 Path Expected Time (wks) A-F-K28 A-I-K33 A-C-G-J-K67 B-D-H-J-K69 B-E-J-K43

18 St. Adolf’s Hospital Immediate ActivityDescriptionPredecessor(s) ASelect administrative and medical staff.— BSelect site and do site survey.— CSelect equipment.A DPrepare final construction plans and layout.B EBring utilities to the site.B FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing, support staff, maintenance, and security.A GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.C HConstruct the hospital.D IDevelop and information system.A JInstall the equipment.E,G,H KTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J Completion Time FinishStart K6K6 I 15 F 10 C 10 D 10 E 24 G 35 H 40 J4J4 A 12 B9B9 Path Expected Time (wks) A-F-K28 A-I-K33 A-C-G-J-K67 B-D-H-J-K69 B-E-J-K43

19 St. Adolf’s Hospital Earliest Start and Earliest Finish Times A 12 K6K6 C 10 G 35 J4J4 H 40 B9B9 D 10 E 24 I 15 F 10 Example 4.2 Finish Start

20 St. Adolf’s Hospital A 12 K6K6 C 10 G 35 J4J4 H 40 B9B9 D 10 E 24 0 12 I 15 F 10 Earliest Start and Earliest Finish Times Earliest start time Earliest finish time Example 4.2 Finish Start

21 St. Adolf’s Hospital A 12 K6K6 C 10 G 35 J4J4 H 40 B9B9 D 10 E 24 0 12 I 15 F 10 12 27 12 22 9 33 0 9 9 19 12 22 Earliest Start and Earliest Finish Times Example 4.2 Finish Start

22 St. Adolf’s Hospital Earliest Start and Earliest Finish Times

23 St. Adolf’s Hospital Latest Start and Latest Finish Times A 12 K6K6 C 10 G 35 J4J4 H 40 B9B9 D 10 E 24 0 12 I 15 F 10 12 27 12 22 63 69 22 57 59 6319 59 9 33 0 9 9 19 12 22 63 69 Latest start time Latest finish time Example 4.3 Finish Start

24 St. Adolf’s Hospital Latest Start and Latest Finish Times

25 St. Adolf’s Hospital Figure 4.8 Gantt Charts

26 St. Adolf’s Hospital 8000 — 7000 — 6000 — 5000 — 4000 — 3000 — 0 — Direct cost (dollars) Crash cost (CC) Normal cost (NC) |||||| 567891011 Time (weeks) (Crash time)(Normal time) Figure 4.10 Cost-Time Relationships in Cost Analysis

27 St. Adolf’s Hospital 8000 — 7000 — 6000 — 5000 — 4000 — 3000 — 0 — Direct cost (dollars) Crash cost (CC) Linear cost assumption Normal cost (NC) |||||| 567891011 Time (weeks) (Crash time)(Normal time) Figure 4.10 Cost-Time Relationships in Cost Analysis

28 St. Adolf’s Hospital 8000 — 7000 — 6000 — 5000 — 4000 — 3000 — 0 — Direct cost (dollars) 5200 Crash cost (CC) Linear cost assumption Normal cost (NC) Estimated costs for a 2-week reduction, from 10 weeks to 8 weeks |||||| 567891011 Time (weeks) (Crash time)(Normal time) Figure 4.10 Cost-Time Relationships in Cost Analysis

29 St. Adolf’s Hospital Maximum NormalNormalCrashCrashTimeCost of TimeCostTimeCostReductionCrashing per Activity(NT)(NC)(CT)(CC)(wk)Week A12$ 12,00011$ 13,0001$ 1,000 B950,000764,00027,000 C104,00057,0005600 D1016,000820,00022,000 E24120,00014200,000108,000 F1010,000616,00041,500 G35500,00025530,000103,000 H401,200,000351,260,000512,000 I1540,0001052,50052,500 J410,000113,00021,000 K630,000534,00014,000 Totals$1,992,000$2,209,000 Table 4.1

30 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum-Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Example 4.5

31 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

32 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

33 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

34 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000 $2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

35 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000 $2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

36 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000 $2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D 10 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J1J1 K6K6

37 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week 3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000 $2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D 10 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K6K6

38 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

39 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

40 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 64 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

41 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D 10 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K6K6

42 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D88D888 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K6K6

43 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 64 weeks Crash Activity K by 1 week @ $4,000/week Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

44 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 64 weeks Crash Activity K by 1 week @ $4,000/week $8,000 – $4,000 = $4,000 $2,511,000 – $4,000 = $2,507,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

45 St. Adolf’s Hospital A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 63 weeks Crash Activity K by 1 week @ $4,000/week $8,000 – $4,000 = $4,000 $2,511,000 – $4,000 = $2,507,000 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

46 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D88D888 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K6K6

47 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D88D888 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K55K555

48 St. Adolf’s Hospital Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 63 weeks Crash Activities B and C by 2 weeks @ $7,000/week and $600/week A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

49 St. Adolf’s Hospital Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 63 weeks Crash Activities B and C by 2 weeks @ $7,000/week and $600/week A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800 $2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

50 St. Adolf’s Hospital Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 61 weeks Crash Activities B and C by 2 weeks @ $7,000/week and $600/week A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,506,200 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800 $2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200 Minimum-Cost Schedule Example 4.5

51 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B9B9 C 10 D88D888 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K55K555

52 St. Adolf’s Hospital Minimum Cost Schedule A-I-K:33 weeksB-D-H-J-K:69 weeks A-F-K:28 weeksB-E-J-K:43 weeks A-C-G-J-K:67 weeks Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000 Indirect costs = $8,000/week Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65 Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week $28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000 $2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000 FinishStart A 12 B77B777 C88C888 D88D888 E 24 F 10 G 35 H 40 I 15 J11J111 K55K555

53 Probabilistic Time Estimates Figure 4.11 (a) Mean mab Time Probability

54 St. Adolf’s Hospital Activity B Most OptimisticLikelyPessimistic (a)(m)(b) 7815 Probabilistic Time Estimates AF I CG Finish D E HBJ K Start Example 4.6

55 St. Adolf’s Hospital Activity B Most OptimisticLikelyPessimistic (a)(m)(b) 7815 Probabilistic Time Estimates t e = = 9 weeks 7 + 4(8) + 15 6 AF I CG Finish D E HBJ K Start Example 4.6

56 St. Adolf’s Hospital Activity B Most OptimisticLikelyPessimistic (a)(m)(b) 7815 Probabilistic Time Estimates t e = = 9 weeks 7 + 4(8) + 15 6  2 = = 1.78 ( ) 15 - 7 6 2 AF I CG Finish D E HBJ K Start Example 4.6

57 St. Adolf’s Hospital OptimisticLikelyPessimisticExpectedVariance Activity(a)(m)(b)Time (t e )(  2 ) Time Estimates (wk)Activity Statistics

58 Example 4.6 St. Adolf’s Hospital OptimisticLikelyPessimisticExpectedVariance Activity(a)(m)(b)Time (t e )(  2 ) Time Estimates (wk)Activity Statistics A111213120.11 B781591.78 C51015102.78 D8916101.78 E142530247.11 F6918104.00 G253641357.11 H354045402.78 I101328159.00 J121545.44 K56760.11

59 St. Adolf’s Hospital Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Example 4.7

60 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T –T E  2 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Example 4.7

61 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T - T E  2  2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89 z = = 0.87 72 - 69 11.89 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Project duration (weeks) 6972 Probability of meeting the schedule is 0.8078 Length of critical path Normal distribution: Mean = 69 weeks;  = 3.45 weeks Probability of exceeding 72 weeks is 0.1922 Figure 4.12 Example 4.7

62 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T – T E  2  2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Example 4.7

63 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T – T E  2  2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89 z = 72 – 69 11.89 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Example 4.7

64 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T – T E  2  2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89 z = = 0.87 72 – 69 11.89 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days Example 4.7

65 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T – T E  2  2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89 z = = 0.87 72 – 69 11.89 Probabilities Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K T = 72 days T E = 69 days From Appendix 2 P z =.8078 .81 Example 4.7

66 St. Adolf’s Hospital  2 =  (variances of activities) z = T – T E  2  2 = 0.11 + 2.78 + 7.11 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 15.55 z = = 1.27 72 – 67 15.55 Probabilities Path = A - C - G - J - K T = 72 days T E = 67 days From Appendix 2 P z =.8980 .90 Example 4.7

67 St. Adolf’s Hospital ActivityDurationEarliest StartLatest StartSlack C101614–2 G352624–2 J46159–2 K66563–2 D10109–1 H402019–1 E24103525 I15164832 F10165337 Table 4.2

68 Project Life Cycle Definition and organization PlanningExecutionClose out StartFinish Resource requirements Time Figure 4.13


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