1. Department of Geography
Dissertation Research Proposal: Susceptibility modeling & mission flight route optimization in a low threat, combat environment
Brett J. Machovina
University of Denver
Department of Geography
11 June 2008

2. Proposal Overview
Goals
Background
Methods
Conclusion

3. Goals Develop a model to optimize flight routes
Hypothesis: GIS-enabled routes increase mission effectiveness by significantly reducing susceptibility
Test the model results in relation to:
Experience
Expertise
Familiarity
Gender
Age
Terrain variability

4. Background Survivability and susceptibility (Ball 2003)
PS = 1 – PK
PK = PH*PKH
PH = PA*PDA*PLD*PIL*PHI
Flight route optimization modeling
Operations research & stealth
Pekelsma 1988
Geography & mission planning tools
PFPS and FalconView (Bailey 2008)
Rotorcraft Noise Model
Behavioral geography
Visualization, orientation, relations (Golledge & Stimson 1997)

5. Background PFPS and FalconView

6. Background RNM

7. Methods Overview Optimized Mission Planning Airframe Limits
Survivability Research
Current Instrument Meteorological (IMC) Data
Current Wind Data
Extensive and Current Temperature Data
Optimized Mission Planning
Airframe Limits
Instructions
GIS Noise Analysis
Detectability
Analysis
GIS EM Visibility Analysis
Elevation Data
Real-time Threat Data
Real-time Weather Data
Threat (Road) Data
Temperature Data
Susceptibility Research

8. Methods Study Areas

9. Methods Study Areas

10. Methods Model: Temp., Altitude & Helicopter Performance
DA = PA + (120 TV)
DA = density altitude
PA = pressure altitude
120 = the change in DA for 1 degree Celsius deviation from standard temperature
TV = temperature variation from standard (15 degrees C at sea level)
= Outside Air Temperature (OAT) – {15 - [(PA in ft/1000 ft)*2]}
(HATS 1999: 2-17)

11. Methods Model: Airframe Limits

12. Methods Model: Visibility

13. Methods Model: Combined Discrete Cost

14. Methods Model: Corridor and Route

15. Methods Validation GIS-enabled route vs. human route (n=45)
Total distance
Turn point deviation from optimal route
% points in optimal corridor
% route in optimal corridor
Difference in visibility footprint
Difference in audibility footprint
Origin and destination
Sinuosity
Directional mean, circular variance

16. Conclusion
Theory
GIS modeling methods
Direct application

17. Timeline Completed coursework 2008 2009 Summer Fall Winter
Fundamental Geog Perspectives, Geog Research Methods, Adv. Geog Statistics, Urban Landscapes, Homeland Defense (GSIS), GIS Modeling, Research Identification*, Application Design & Production*
2008
Summer
June: IRB, AFSPC
July 7-12: data collection
Dissertation Research
Fall
GIS Database Design, International Terrorism (GSIS)
2009
Winter
Spatial Modeling, Ind. Study, 3rd World Defense Policy (GSIS)
* Current course (SP qtr 2008)

18. Timeline 2009 2010 Spring Summer Fall Winter
Geographic Information Analysis, GIS Seminar
Comprehensive Exam
Summer
Dissertation Research
Fall
Dissertation Research, Special Topics in GIS
2010
Winter
Dissertation Defense

19. Methods
GIS Route
Human Route
Back

20. Methods Turn Point Deviation
GIS Route
Human Route
Deviation from closest GIS line segment
Back

21. Methods % of turn points in optimal corridor
Example: 60% of human-generated turn points fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)
Human Route
GIS Route
Back

22. Methods % of route in optimal corridor
GIS Route
Human Route
Example: 64% of human route segments fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)
Back

23. Methods Difference in visibility and audibility footprints
Visibility is yes/no
Audibility will require a threshold
Back

24. Methods Origin and Destination
225
DM and CV?
135
DM and CV?
Human Route
GIS Route
Back