Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byBrianna Atkinson Modified over 10 years ago
1
PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum, HM Treasury, 14 November 2005
2
SCoPiC (Research Network on Social Contexts of Pathways in Crime) ESRC – Funded Universities of Cambridge, Huddersfield, London and Sheffield Network Director: Per-Olof Wikström
3
TYPICAL RISK FACTORS FOR PREDICTION OF DELINQUENCY High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity-Attention Problems Lack of Guilt Poor Parental Supervision Low School Motivation Many Peer Delinquents Positive Perception of Anti-Social Behaviour
4
KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (1) Per cent of male youths having committed serious offence by risk/protective score and neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle- AdvantagedrangeNonpublicPublicGamma N High Protective Score 11.15.116.737.50.23155 Balanced Risk and Protective Score 27.340.138.560.70.23651 High Risk Score 77.871.378.370.0n.s.222 Gamma 0.700.740.69n.s. N 142556188142 Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000)
5
KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (2) Per cent of subjects with high risk scores by neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle- AdvantagedrangeNonpublicPublicGamma N High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity 13.820.928.720.10.151,436 Attention Problems Lack of Guilt 19.230.035.546.00.261,254 Poor Parental Supervision 15.822.829.139.70.281,414 Low School Motivation 21.931.244.947.60.301,432 Many Peer Delinquents 17.922.927.729.40.151,323 Positive Perception of 29.225.819.825.9n.s.1,431 Anti-Social Behaviour RISK INDEX 13.319.928.834.90.301,148 Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000)
6
(Observed values at 1 hectare level) Source: Craglia and Costello, 2005 Geographical Distribution of Known Offenders in South Yorkshire
7
Final Model in Craglia and Costello Area-Based Study of Offender Rates Log (Offender) = β 0 + β 1 X 1 + β 2 X 2 + β 3 X 3 + β 4 X 4 + β 5 X 5 + β 6 X 6 Where: X 1 = Percent economically active unemployed X 2 = Percent of households renting from other (hostels, secure accommodation, prisons, boarding houses, hotels and other communal establishments) X 3 = Percent of households with lone parents with dependent children X 4 = Percent of residential spaces vacant X 5 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – health domain score X 6 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – crime domain score (R 2 = 0.82)
8
ASPECTS OF VICTIMISATION DISTRIBUTION FROM BRITISH CRIME SURVEY % burgled % theft of vehicle* % criminal damage to home (A) Household Income Less than £5000 4.41.62.7 £5000<£10000 2.91.32.9 £10000<£20000 2.81.02.9 £20000<£30000 2.51.03.0 £30000+ 2.61.12.9 (B) Physical Disorder In Area High (Score 2 or 3) 6.03.44.7 Low (Score 0 or 1) 2.41.02.6 *Based on vehicle-owing households only Source: S. Nicholas et al, Crime in England and Wales 2004/2005, Home Office Research Bulletin 11/05
9
Residents Satisfaction with Safety and Perceived Risk of Crime in Selected Areas of Chicago Source: Taub et al, Paths of Neighborhood Change, 1984, p. 172
10
Perception of whether local issues are a serious problem in residential areas, 1997-98 Source: Report of Policy Action Team 8: Anti-social behaviour
11
Regression Model of Residents Perceptions of Lack of Neighbourhood Safety, Sheffield 2005 Source: Bottoms and Wilson, 2005 Model CoefftSig (Constant).8.40.000 Communities Working Together Scale -.093-3.14.002 Area Declining.6923.05.003 Seen PC on Foot -.582-2.07.039 Non-white respondent -.572-2.00.046 Knows of CP Programme -.427-1.95.052 Quality of Local Services Scale -.037-1.85.066
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com Inc.
All rights reserved.