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PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum, HM Treasury,

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Presentation on theme: "PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum, HM Treasury,"— Presentation transcript:

1 PLACE, CRIME AND DISORDER Anthony Bottoms Universities of Cambridge and Sheffield Presentation at Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum, HM Treasury, 14 November 2005

2 SCoPiC (Research Network on Social Contexts of Pathways in Crime) ESRC – Funded Universities of Cambridge, Huddersfield, London and Sheffield Network Director: Per-Olof Wikström

3 TYPICAL RISK FACTORS FOR PREDICTION OF DELINQUENCY High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity-Attention Problems Lack of Guilt Poor Parental Supervision Low School Motivation Many Peer Delinquents Positive Perception of Anti-Social Behaviour

4 KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (1) Per cent of male youths having committed serious offence by risk/protective score and neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle- AdvantagedrangeNonpublicPublicGamma N High Protective Score Balanced Risk and Protective Score High Risk Score n.s.222 Gamma n.s. N Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000)

5 KEY RESULTS FROM THE PITTSBURGH YOUTH STUDY (2) Per cent of subjects with high risk scores by neighbourhood context Neighbourhood Context Disadvantaged Middle- AdvantagedrangeNonpublicPublicGamma N High Hyperactivity-Impulsivity ,436 Attention Problems Lack of Guilt ,254 Poor Parental Supervision ,414 Low School Motivation ,432 Many Peer Delinquents ,323 Positive Perception of n.s.1,431 Anti-Social Behaviour RISK INDEX ,148 Source: Wikström and Loeber (2000)

6 (Observed values at 1 hectare level) Source: Craglia and Costello, 2005 Geographical Distribution of Known Offenders in South Yorkshire

7 Final Model in Craglia and Costello Area-Based Study of Offender Rates Log (Offender) = β 0 + β 1 X 1 + β 2 X 2 + β 3 X 3 + β 4 X 4 + β 5 X 5 + β 6 X 6 Where: X 1 = Percent economically active unemployed X 2 = Percent of households renting from other (hostels, secure accommodation, prisons, boarding houses, hotels and other communal establishments) X 3 = Percent of households with lone parents with dependent children X 4 = Percent of residential spaces vacant X 5 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – health domain score X 6 = Index of multiple deprivation 2004 – crime domain score (R 2 = 0.82)

8 ASPECTS OF VICTIMISATION DISTRIBUTION FROM BRITISH CRIME SURVEY % burgled % theft of vehicle* % criminal damage to home (A) Household Income Less than £ £5000<£ £10000<£ £20000<£ £ (B) Physical Disorder In Area High (Score 2 or 3) Low (Score 0 or 1) *Based on vehicle-owing households only Source: S. Nicholas et al, Crime in England and Wales 2004/2005, Home Office Research Bulletin 11/05

9 Residents Satisfaction with Safety and Perceived Risk of Crime in Selected Areas of Chicago Source: Taub et al, Paths of Neighborhood Change, 1984, p. 172

10 Perception of whether local issues are a serious problem in residential areas, Source: Report of Policy Action Team 8: Anti-social behaviour

11 Regression Model of Residents Perceptions of Lack of Neighbourhood Safety, Sheffield 2005 Source: Bottoms and Wilson, 2005 Model CoefftSig (Constant) Communities Working Together Scale Area Declining Seen PC on Foot Non-white respondent Knows of CP Programme Quality of Local Services Scale


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