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The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions? John Curtice Strathclyde University.

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Presentation on theme: "The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions? John Curtice Strathclyde University."— Presentation transcript:

1 The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions? John Curtice Strathclyde University

2 Three Questions Are we (still) disengaged? Where stands the Union – and the West Lothian question? What are the implications for the debate about the electoral system?

3 Trends in Turnout

4 Trends in Civic Duty

5 The Loss of Trust

6 Did Expenses Matter? ConLab Incumbent - Expenses Not Expenses Non-incumbent - Expenses Not Expenses

7 Scotland Goes Its Own Way

8 Three Different Results! EnglandE, W & NIUK Con Lab LD Others12228 Con. Maj

9 Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote

10 Liberal Democrat Seats

11 The Decline of the Marginal Seat

12 Tory and Lab Britain Nudge Apart 2005 ResultSwing from Lab to Con Change in LD Vote Con 1 st /Lab 2nd Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj. < 10% Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj % Lab 1 st /Con 2 nd ; Maj. > 20%

13 The Anti-Tory Bias ConLab Electorate72,39668,360 Turnout => Voters49,47441,857 Small Majorities6083 Vote in Third Party Seats

14 How The System Now (Doesnt) Work Con % LeadConLabLDOthers

15 Three Answers? There is still a problem of voter disengagement – the MPs expenses scandal may have negated the closer election. The West Lothian question is likely to become more pressing – but Scotland will need attention too. Advocates of FPP are at risk of defending a system that no longer works.


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