1. o.de Research sponsored by Development of Strategies and Sustainability Standards for the Certification of Biomass for International Trade (Bio-global) The iLUC factor: A Simplified Approach to Quantify GHG Emissions from indirect Land Use Changes Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division Oeko-Institut (Institute for applied Ecology) Germany Input to the CARB Fourth Low Carbon Fuel Standard Expert Workgroup Meeting, July 15, 2010

2. o.de Research sponsored by Indirect LUC All incremental use of fertile land imply indirect effects indirect LUC of bioenergy = direct LUC of agriculture/forestry real world only knows direct LUC Distinguish between analytical (science) vs. regulatory (policy) iLUC factor = proxy for regulation (EU)

3. o.de Research sponsored by iLUC Factor: Approach (1) developed since 2007; simplified but transparent approach for policy; uses EU RED by-product allocation to be compatible with regulation hypothesis: displacement and respective LUC equivalent to land use for agro exports (corn, palm, rape, soy, wheat) of most relevant trade countries/regions (BR, EU, ID, US) derives “world mix” (global average) of land use for exports from yields and traded volumes (FAOSTAT)

4. o.de Research sponsored by iLUC Factor: Approach (2) Assumptions on LUC per country/region (e.g. grassland to corn in US) for exported commodities, based on Gibbs (2010) and Lapola (2010) IPCC CO 2 emission factors for LUC per ha of displaced land per type and region (distributed over 20 years);  result: theoretical 100% iLUC factor 2005-2030: 11 - 17 t CO 2 /ha/yr  but “real” values max. 75% of that due to yield increases (1 %/yr 2005-2030)  risk levels of displacement (ha displaced /ha cultivation ) depend on market dynamics, estimated as low (25% iLUC factor), and high (50% iLUC factor) - see next slide

5. o.de Research sponsored by iLUC Factor: Data for 2005-2030 “world mix”: export shares of countries (AR/BR, EU, ID, US ) for agro products (rape, maize, palm, soy, wheat), yield and trade data from FAOSTAT 200-2007 + trend projections (2010-2020), and scenarios (2030)

6. o.de Research sponsored by iLUC Factor: Data for 2005-2030 The iLUC factor (25-50% risk levels) is comparatively stable until 2020

7. o.de Research sponsored by iLUC Factor: Effects 2010-2020 Effects of dLUC and iLUC on life-cycle GHG emissions of selected biofuels; figures in bold red indicate emission increase instead of reduction; energy-based by-product allocation according to EU RED (also for LUC); data for Europe

8. o.de Research sponsored by ILUC: Comparison of Model Results ILUC values incl. life-cycle emissions based on various models (from: PBL 2010) For comparison: range of 25-50% iLUC factor (2010-2020) for biofuels with net yield of 100 MJ/ha/yr

9. o.de Research sponsored by Some Conclusions Models and simplified approaches give 10-100 g/MJ range for ILUC, allow “entry level“ estimates for regulation Beyond models: Dampening ILUC –REDD (if adequately implemented and financed) –“offsetting“: CDM, “free“ land from intensification (baseline!) Beyond numbers: Prioritizing low-iLUC feedstocks: –wastes/residues (2nd generation) –unused/degraded land (with biodiversity/social safeguards) Long-term: strengthen climate convention to account for direct emission from all LUC from all sectors

10. o.de Research sponsored by More Information (from Europe) www.oeko.de/service/bio