1. Mozambique Sustainable Irrigation Development Project (PROIRRI) Early Stage Steps to a Future Impact Evaluation Herminia Pedro, MINAG - DE Paulino Balate – MINAG - DNSA Agnelio Pita – MINAG - CEPAGRI Pedro Arlindo – WB Jigar Bhatt – MCC (Facilitator) Addis Ababa, April 15, 2009

2. Expectation of the PROIRRI Team PROIRRI is in very early stage of preparation. – We finalized the second preparation mission two weeks ago. From the audience we expect many comments and contributions for a better understanding of impact evaluation (IE) by the PROIRRI and team.

3. Basic Information of PROIRRI The DO is to increase the irrigated areas and to enhance agricultural productivity of smallholders farmers for selected high-value crops in target new or improved irrigation schemes along Beira Corridor (Manica and Sofala provinces). The Project coverage is estimated to be around 5,000 ha. Target crops are Rice, Horticulture, Sugar Cane and fruiticulture. Six years implementation. World Bank contribution is US$ 50 million.

4. Interventions Planned Under this Project 1. Support institutional capacity development, which includes Strengthening DPAs and district level agriculture authorities; and Participatory Irrigation Scheme Development and Management. 2. Market-led production and value chain development, including Strengthening production and marketing extension services; Establishment of linkages along the value chain; and Fruit fly surveillance plan. 3. Investing in irrigation systems and support infrastructure, including Revitalizing Rice Irrigation Schemes; Small-scale Horticulture Development ; and Promoting Outgrowers Arrangements.

5. Output Indicators (1) Component 1 Number of sustainable irrigated agriculture policies approved Number of studies regarding institutional and regulatory framework undertaken Number of academic staff trained in agriculture curricula Number of smallholder irrigation organizations (IO) established and operating on sustainable manner Number of irrigation organizations training manual produced in participatory manner Number of workshop training (on irrigation scheme operation and management) Outcome: – Number of GoM managers with increased capacity for agricultural policy development and analysis.

6. Output Indicators (2) Component 2 Number of agricultural production crops in smallholder irrigation schemes Number of producer associations per crop Number of outgrower arrangements between small scale farmers and private sector actors Number of demonstration plots established Hectares of land demarcated as free of fruit fly Number of training activities on production for farmers to respond to production quality Outcome: –Number of beneficiaries / hectares supplying agriculture commodities in larger quantities and better quality

7. Output Indicators (3) Component 3 Number of irrigation infrastructure improved/constructed/operated /managed Number of irrigating schemes revitalized by crop Number (of ha) of irrigated area Number of reservoirs constructed/rehabilitated New or improved production technologies Number of km of road network constructed or rehabilitated Number of cold storage built Outcome: Area of irrigated agriculture in target smallholder irrigation schemes Number of tons per year produced in irrigated agriculture in target smallholder irrigation schemes

8. Intermediate & Final outcomes / results Intermediate Outcome indicator (A) - Number of GoM managers with increased capacity for agricultural policy development and analysis. Intermediate Outcome indicator (B) - Area of irrigated agriculture in target smallholder irrigation schemes Final Outcome indicator (C) - Number of beneficiaries / hectares supplying agriculture commodities in larger quantities and better quality Final Outcome indicator (D) - Number of tons per year produced in irrigated agriculture in target smallholder irrigation schemes.

9. Impacts / Final Results Productivity increased Income increased

10. Steps to Impact Evaluation (1) Irrigation is very important in Mozambiques agriculture Main constraints within irrigation include lack of sustainability. Potential causes for low sustainability: construction is very expensive; operating and maintenance (O&M) is very costly; and weak water user organizations. The most likely main reason seems to be O&M costs. Construction does seem to be the major problem per se as there are many irrigation schemes not operating.

11. Steps to Impact Evaluation (2) Hypothesis (questions to be tested) – to achieve sustainable O&M costs, GoM and beneficiaries should share costs. Beneficiaries contributions should range to improve ownership (0%, 20%, 50%?). After the end of PROIRRI it could be possible to evaluate the impact comparing (or measuring) how many irrigation schemes are operating and of those how many has been kept. Finally, we consider the hypothesis technical and political sustainable.

12. Timeline and Sampling Timeline Baseline - around 1 st semester of 2009. 1 st Follow up survey – 1 st semester 2013. 2 nd Follow up survey – last year of the project. IE Implementation Team MINAG, UEM, WB, Other partners (FAO). Sampling Method Part of the learning process.

13. Last Points for Consideration We hope to do the same exercise for other important areas to agriculture development in Mozambique included in PROIRRI. We understand that: the steps given so far can be very useful as GoM is in a good position to engage in the project; there is still major work to be done on IE; Gender considerations will be part of this.

14. Muito Obrigado! Khanimambo!