1. University Extension/Department of Economics The Role of Energy in the History of Iowa Agriculture Ag. Based Renewable Energy Professional Development Workshop Ames, Iowa June 20, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA-NASS Crop Shifts

3. University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings Source: USDA-NASS 1 st : Corn Production Soybean Production Field Crop Value Egg Production Hog Inventory Hog Value on Farm Commercial Hog Slaughter Crop Harvested Area 2 nd :Red Meat Production Total Crop Value Net Farm Income 3 rd :Number of Farms Milk Goat Inventory 4 th : Cattle on Feed Steers – 500 Lbs. & Over 5 th :Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over Market Sheep & Lambs 6 th :Oat Production 7 th :All Cattle & Calves 9 th : Alfalfa Hay Production Number of Organic Farms 10 th : Land in Farms Calf Crop Wool Production

4. University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa Farms and Farmland Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

5. University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa Cattle Operations Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

6. University Extension/Department of Economics Iowa Hog Operations Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

7. University Extension/Department of Economics Corn Energy-related Production Costs Source: USDA-ERS

8. University Extension/Department of Economics Fertilizer Use Source: USDA-ERS

9. University Extension/Department of Economics Productivity Source: USDA-ERS

10. University Extension/Department of Economics Change in Input Structure Source: USDA-ERS

11. University Extension/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

12. University Extension/Department of Economics Ethanol Production

13. University Extension/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

14. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: ISU Extension

15. University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.086.488.290.7 Yield(bu./acre)153.9164.7152.8158.7 Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44713,200 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,708730 Imports(mil. bu.)1482520 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18013,950 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1405,1505,000 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5685,0005,050 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3711,4001,405 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9871,9001,800 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,45013,255 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,708730695 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.063.555.356.50

16. University Extension/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

17. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: EIA Energy Flow (Quadrillion BTUs)

18. University Extension/Department of Economics Biomass Wind Solar Alternative Sources

19. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA On-Farm Wind Power In 2000, US farms had roughly 360 wind turbines and IA farms had 17. In 2009, US farms had roughly 1,845 wind turbines and IA farms had 57.

20. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA On-Farm Solar Power In 2000, US farms had 18,881 solar panels and IA farms had 42. In 2009, US farms had 172,441 solar panels and IA farms had 564.

21. University Extension/Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage 200620102015202020252030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2006 Value) United States20.795%98% 100%105% Canada2.3100% 104%109% Mexico2.171%81%90%95%100% Europe15.792% 95%96% Japan5.288%92%96%92%90% China7.2118%139%168%192%213% India2.789%115%144%159%174% Africa3.0117%120%123%127%130% Central and South America5.7116% 119%125%133% World85.0102%107%113%119%125% Source: Energy Information Administration

22. University Extension/Department of Economics Population 2010 2030 2050 (billion) World6.852World8.249World9.256 China1.330India1.461India1.657 India1.173China1.391China1.304 U.S.0.310U.S.0.374U.S.0.439 Indonesia0.243Indonesia0.289Indonesia0.313 Brazil0.201Pakistan0.243Pakistan0.291 Pakistan0.184Brazil0.240Ethiopia0.278 Bangladesh0.156Nigeria0.212Nigeria0.264 Nigeria0.152Bangladesh0.211Brazil0.261 Russia0.139Ethiopia0.162Bangladesh0.250 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

23. University Extension/Department of Economics Source: USDA-NASS Crop Shifts

24. University Extension/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/