Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets."— Presentation transcript:

1 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.488.291.997.297.3 Yield(bu./acre)164.7152.8147.2123.4163.6 Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78014,642 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,128989757 Imports(mil. bu.)8282912525 Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51611,89415,424 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5454,4005,400 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0114,5504,675 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3871,435 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341,5438001,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52711,13713,010 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081,1289897572,414 Season-Average Price($/bu.)3.555.186.226.904.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

3 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)77.577.475.077.277.1 Yield(bu./acre)44.043.541.939.644.5 Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0153,387 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)138151215169125 Imports(mil. bu.)1514162015 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2043,527 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6351,660 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)1101309095135 Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3621,3501,500 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0803,295 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)151215169125232 Season-Average Price($/bu.)9.5911.3012.5014.3010.50 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

4 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics March 1 Corn Stocks Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels

5 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics March 1 Soy Stocks Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels

6 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

7 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

8 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Total Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

9 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

10 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

11 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

12 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

13 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

14 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

15 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

16 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Advance Corn Sales Source: USDA-FAS

17 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Advance Soybean Sales Source: USDA-FAS

18 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

19 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks

20 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013 5.11 5.08

21 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013 11.67 11.57

22 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prices vs. Costs

23 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Prices vs. Costs

24 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

25 3 Month Outlook - Precip

26 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 3 Month Outlook - Temps

27 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Soil moisture issues  Wetter, but warmer, spring  Corn demand has yet to rebound (but ethanol is starting to)  Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (4/11/13) Corn$6.90$5.11 Soybeans$14.30$11.67

28 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/


Download ppt "Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google