1. FSF Mediterranean: 5 th International Conference “Aviation Safety Performance: Can it be Measured?” Session 1: Challenges Facing Aviation Safety EUROCONTROL Network Manager (NM) ‘Top 5’ Safety Priorities Richard “Sid” Lawrence EUROCONTROL NMD Safety 15 May 2014

2. 23/09/20152 Some Key Questions  Where are the safety threats in the Network?  Where are the safety opportunities?  What should be done to keep the Network safe and improve?  Who do we tell to make it effective?

3. Identifying the NM ‘Top 5’ - Scope  Strategic fit and challenge  The Process  The ‘Top 5’  Deliverables  Where are we now?  Questions

4. CAPACITYCAPACITY SAFETYSAFETY EFFICIENCY EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT SES ATM NETWORK PERFORMANCE NETWORK MANAGER

5. SES Safety Performance  Reference Period 1 – 2012-2014 – EU-wide Safety KPIs  Effectiveness of Safety Management  Just Culture  Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) methodology  Reference Period 2 – 2015-2019 – EU-wide Safety Targets  Effectiveness of Safety Management  Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) (methodology)  RP 2 ‘Local’ indicators:  Just culture  Automated safety data recording systems, e.g. EUROCONTROL Automatic Safety Monitoring Tool (ASMT).

6. Operational Safety Task Regulatory ChainService Provision Chain EC, EASA, NSAs:  Safety Rulemaking,  Certification  Safety Oversight EC, EASA, NSAs:  Safety Rulemaking,  Certification  Safety Oversight NM, Aviation Operators:  Safety Management  Operational Safety  Safety Culture NM, Aviation Operators:  Safety Management  Operational Safety  Safety Culture  NM safety work programme fully coordinated with EASA; non-regulatory.  Some deliverables contribute towards EASA European Aviation Safety Plan (EASp).

7. NM Safety – ‘Top 5’ Strategic Fit Network Strategy Plan NM Safety: Identify Top 5 operational ATM Safety priorities Identify operational safety risks to mitigate safety risks at network level using relevant network safety data. NM Implementing Rule revision: Safety Management Network Performance Plan Network Operations Plan

8. The Challenge – find the ‘Top 5’ Operational ATM Safety Risk Priorities  How do we identify and prioritise the most important operational ATM risks facing the Network?  Strategic fit - respond to the Network Manager mandate / Network Strategy Plan - provide baseline for Network Top 5 Operational Safety Risk Priorities  More systematic review of risk areas  More explicit portfolio of initiatives and deliverables  Enhance the collaborative decision making  Another challenge, how to make sense of the available safety performance data/knowledge:  NM Safety Improvement Sub Group (SISG) in 2012: Let’s see what we did… Challenge

9. Key criteria for SISG priorities process ANSPs-centred Risk-based Decision support Subsidiarity Efficiency Knowledge To be based on ANSPs’ risk management and priorities and not changing them To systematically review ATM European risk areas and suggest working priorities proportionate to the risk To use collaborative decision making process and use data not as a replacement but only as a support to it To consider Network safety initiatives only where there are clear benefits from a Network perspective To concentrate the common effort for safety improvements with highest risk reduction return of the investment To aim at consolidating and promoting the existing knowledge

10. Where to put the SISG work priorities? Mid-air collision Ground Collision CFIT RE OUTCOMES PRECURSORS Loss of Separation Airspace Infringement Runway Incursion CFTT Unstabilised Approach OPS THREATS OPS THREATS AG Comm. issues Severe WX Risks Technical failures Laser Illumination ATC Sector Overloads ORG ENABLERS SMS Maturity Safety Culture Competency system

11. The Process step-by-step: Potential Risk Areas 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. In-depth analysis 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions Loss of Separation Runway Incursion Airspace Infringements (inside CAS) Weather Unstabilised Approaches Level Busts Military activity Oceanic Ops Air Ground Communications ANSP/ANSP Interface (internal and external coordination) Ground operations GA at small airports Go-Arounds/Missed Approach Safety Nets Systemic handling of Active Danger areas Aircraft technical problems/unusual situations Birdstrikes Laser Illumination Hot spots (route intersections) Crossing traffic (airspace design) Technical failures Runway excursion FOD STCA Simultaneous/Blocked Transmissions HOTO

12. 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. In-depth analysis 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions 2.1 Criticality of the Risk Areas - how close events are to an accident The Process step-by-step: Suggested Risk Priorities Runway Incursion Loss of separation Airspace Infringement (of Controlled Airspace) Runway Excursion Incident after Unstabilised Approach Level Bust Adverse weather conditions ATC position/sector overloads Air-Ground Communication Incidents HOTO Incidents

13. 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. In-depth analysis 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions 2.2 Suggested Priorities The process step-by-step : Suggested Risk Priorities Airspace Infringement Runway Incursion Loss of Separation ATC sector overloads Level Bust Go Around Safety Severe Weather Risk Air Ground communications

14. 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. In-depth analysis 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions 3 Safety Team - Risk Review Runway Incursion Loss of Separation The Process step-by-step: Agreed Risk Priorities

15. Simplified SAFMAP – Barriers RUNWAY INCURSION UNRESOLVED BY ATC RUNWAY CONFLICT UNRESOLVED BY ATC AND PILOT/DRIVER RUNWAY CONFLICT RUNWAY CONFLICT Preventing Runway Incursion Preventing Runway Incursion to turn into RWY conflict ATC RWY Collision Avoidance Pilot/Driver RWY Collision Avoidance Providence

16. Findings - The efficiency of the barriers 10 8 7 26 PROVIDENCE COLLISION AVOIDANCE BY PILOT OR VEHICLE DRIVER COLLISION AVOIDANCE BY ATC CONFLICT PREVENTION 36 RWY INCURSION PREVENTION WORKED FAILED 117 18

17. Findings - The main RWY incursion scenarios Conflicting take-off clearance Incorrect clearance and spacing for landing Landing without clearance Incorrect entry after inadequate communication ATC causes incorrect entry Incorrect entry after confusion that there is a clearance Incorrect vacation Incorrect entry after positional confusion 234576

18. Findings – Runway Safety

19. Runway Incursion – ‘Top 5’Priorities: Landing without Clearance Detecting occupied runway

20. Loss of Separation En Route – ‘Top 5’ Priorities: ‘Blind spot’ Risk of operations without a transponder or with a dysfunctional one Conflict detection with adjacent sectors

21. 23/09/201521 ‘Top 5’ ATM Operational Safety Priorities for 2013

22. 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. Top 5 Study 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions 4.1 Collect information for the specific risk area 4.2 Analyse the causes and their interdependence 4.3 Suggested Safety Enhancements Consolidate Suggested Safety Enhancements The Process step-by-step: ‘Top 5’ Studies

23. Where are we today?  ‘Top 5’ Safety Studies launched in 2013 – ongoing, nearing completion.  Prioritisation exercise repeated using 2012/3 data.  Results broadly similar – therefore, retain current ‘Top 5’ until completion of Studies.  However, runway incursion data revealed involvement of vehicles in RI incidents remains prevalent – intend to undertake survey of aerodromes/ANSPs:  ‘Best’ practices for aerodrome driving etc  Effectiveness of EAPPRI recommendations  Possible Safety Study

24. 1. ANSPs’ Safety Priorities 2. Suggested Priorities 4. In-depth analysis 3. Collaborative decision 5. Improvement Actions 5.1 Agree Safety Enhancements 5.2 Promote and Support Implementation 5.3 Monitor implementation and risk reduction efficiency The process step-by-step: Agreed Safety Enhancements Safety Improvement Sub-Group Safety Team

25. Have we met the challenge?  We think so!  Structured, collaborative and robust process but without being over burdensome and time-consuming.  Uses existing safety data and contributes to our understanding of operational safety performance.  Enhances our collective safety knowledge and enables it to be widely spread to help others across the Network improve their safety performance.

26. 2014 Safety Forum - Airborne Conflict Date: 10 – 11 June Venue: EUROCONTROL HQ Brussels Registration closes soon! safety.forum@eurocontrol.int safety.forum@eurocontrol.int

27. Top 5 Safety Priorities27 Questions?