1. Lecture 1b Technology Trends
Pradondet Nilagupta , KU
(Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz
& Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)

2. Original
Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes

3. Massively Parallel Processors
1988 Computer Food Chain
Mainframe
Work-
station PC
Mini-
computer
Mini-
supercomputer
Supercomputer
Massively Parallel Processors

4. Massively Parallel Processors
Mini-
supercomputer
Mini-
computer
Massively Parallel Processors
1998 Computer Food Chain
Mainframe
Work-
station PC
Server
Supercomputer
Now who is eating whom?

5. Why Such Change in 10 years?
Function
Rise of networking/local interconnection technology
Performance
Technology Advances
CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance
Computer architecture advances improves low-end
RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …
Price: Lower costs due to …
Simpler development
CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components
Higher volumes
CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units
Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services

6. 1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies
ECL
TTL
MOS
Mainframe
Work-
station PC
Mini-
computer
Mini-
supercomputer
Supercomputer

7. Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity
“Graduation Window”
Alpha 21264: 15 million
Pentium Pro: 5.5 million
PowerPC 620: 6.9 million
Alpha 21164: 9.3 million
Sparc Ultra: 5.2 million
Moore’s Law
CMOS improvements:
Die size: 2X every 3 yrs
Line width: halve / 7 yrs

8. Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)
year size(Mb) cyc time ns ns ns ns ns ns ns

9. CMOS Improvements
Die size 2X every 3 yrs Line widths halve every 7 yrs 25
Die size increase plus transistor count increase 20 15
Transistor Count 10 5
Line Width Improvement
Die Size
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992

10. Future DRAMs (Spectrum 1/96)
Year Smallest Die Size Bits/Chip
Feature m sq. mm (Billions)

11. Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time
128K
128M
2000 8K 1M 8M 1G 8G
1970
1980
1990
1 chip
1Kbit
640K 4K
16K
64K
256K 4M
16M
64M
256M
DOS
limit
1/8 chip
8 chips-PC
64 chips
workstation
512 chips
4K chips
Bytes
Time

12. Technology Trends (Summary)
Capacity Speed (latency)
Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years
DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years

13. Processor frequency trend
Frequency doubles each generation
Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%

14. Processor Performance Trends
Microprocessors
Minicomputers
Mainframes
Supercomputers
0.1 1 10
100
1000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year

15. Performance vs. Time 0.1 1.0 10 100 Performance (VAX 780s) 1980 1985
Mips
25 MHz
0.1
1.0 10
100
Performance (VAX 780s)
1980
1985
1990
MV10K
68K
780
5 MHz
RISC 60% / yr.
uVAX 6K
(CMOS)
8600
TTL
ECL 15%/yr.
CMOS CISC
38%/yr. o |
MIPS (8 MHz)
9000
(65 MHz)
uVAX
CMOS
Will RISC continue on a
60%, (x4 / 3 years)? 4K

16. Processor Performance (1.35X before, 1.55X now)
1.54X/yr

17. Performance Trends (Summary)
Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)
Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year

18. Instructions/Second/$ vs. Time
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983 1 10
100
1000
10000
100000
Mainframe
Super-mini
Workstation
Instructions/second/$ PC

19. Processor Perspective
Putting performance growth in perspective:
IBM POWER Cray YMP
Workstation Supercomputer
Year
MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS
Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS
Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)
Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz
Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB
Memory 512 MB 256 MB
1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!

20. Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?
Technology?
Organization?
Instruction Set Architecture?
Software?
Some combination of all of the above?

21. Performance Trends Revisited (Architectural Innovation)
1000
Supercomputers
100
Mainframes 10
Minicomputers
Microprocessors 1
CISC/RISC
0.1
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year

22. Performance Trends Revisited (Technology Advances)
Logic Speed: 2x per 3 years
Logic Capacity: 2x per 3 years
Leads to:
Computing capacity: 4x per 3 years
If can keep all the transistors busy all the time
Actual: 3.3x per 3 years

23. Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)
Bit Level Parallelism
Pipelining
Caches
Instruction Level Parallelism
Out-of-order Xeq
Speculation
. . .

24. What is Ahead? Greater instruction level parallelism? Bigger caches?
Multiple processors per chip?
Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems)
High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect

25. Hardware Technology 1980 1990 2000 Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G
Memory chips 64 K M M-1 G
Speed
5-1/4 in. disks 40 M G G
Floppies .256 M M ,000 M
LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits (100) (ATM)
Busses 2-20 Mbytes

26. Software Technology
Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff??
Op. System proprietary +DUM* DUM+NT
User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ??
Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile
New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances
Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??
DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC
WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus
Agents = robots that work on information

27. Computing 2001 Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years
1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbytes) in 2002
On-line Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs
Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism ญ100
Radio links for untethered computing

28. Computing 2001
Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ... Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers
We should be able to simulate:
Nearly everything we make and their factories
Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies
Performance implies: voice and visual Ease of use. Agents!

29. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities
Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling
Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ??
Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail
Large, commercial transaction processing systems
Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )

30. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities
Visualization & virtual reality
Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials
Mechanical engineering without prototypes
Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance.
Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers
Integration of the PC & TV => TC

31. Challenges for 1990s Platforms
64-bit computers
video, voice, communication, any really new apps?
Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability?
Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability?
Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?

32. Challenges for 1990s Platforms
Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video
The true portable, wireless communication computer
Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer
Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?

33. A glimpse into the future
Silicon in 2010
Die Area: 2.5x2.5 cm
Voltage: V
Technology: 0.07 m
15 times denser
than today
2.5 times power
density
5 times clock rate

34. Source: Richard Newton
What is the next wave?
Source: Richard Newton

35. The Embedded Processor
What?
A programmable processor whose programming interface is not accessible to the end-user of the product.
The only user-interaction is through the actual application.

36. Examples:
Sharp PDA’s are encapsulated products with fixed functionality
- 3COM Palm pilots were originally intended as embedded systems. Opening up the programmers interface turned them into more generic computer systems.

37. Some interesting numbers
The Intel 4004 was intended for an embedded application (a calculator)
Of todays microprocessors
95% go into embedded applications
SSH3/4 (Hitachi): best selling RISC microprocessor
50% of microprocessor revenue stems from embedded systems

38. Some interesting numbers (cont.)
Often focused on particular application area
Microcontrollers
DSPs
Media Processors
Graphics Processors
Network and Communication Processors

39. Some different evaluation metrics
Components of Cost
Area of die / yield
Code density (memory is the major part of die size)
Packaging
Design effort
Programming cost
Time-to-market
Reusability
Power
Cost
Flexibility
Performance as a Functionality Constraint
(“Just-in-Time Computing”)