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CO 2 Life Fantastic Inez Fung University of California Berkeley University of California Museum of Paleontology March 6 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "CO 2 Life Fantastic Inez Fung University of California Berkeley University of California Museum of Paleontology March 6 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 CO 2 Life Fantastic Inez Fung University of California Berkeley University of California Museum of Paleontology March 6 2015

2 Mauna Loa Observatory

3

4 Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x10 15 g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x10 12 g = 1 Million metric tons 1 kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 (=44/12) kg Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) ppm=parts per million by volume 2 PgC, well-mixed in entire atm  1 ppm CO2

5 Bean leaf x4200 Life Terrestial: (i) Photosynthesis

6 Life Terrestrial: (ii) Carbon Cycle Growth, mortality, decay Population: {ages} Photosynthesis (climate, CO 2, soil H 2 O, resource limitation) Decay (T, soil H 2 O,..) 120 PgC/yr60 1200 PgC  ~10 1 -10 2 yr 800 PgC  ~ 10 1 yr Biomass depleted in 13 C and 14 C Contemporary 14 C

7 Respiration Photosynthesis JanDec From Atm To Atm CO 2 Flux Life Terrestrial: (iii) Atmospheric signature Seasonal asynchrony photosynthesis & decomposition  net fluxes of CO 2 to and from atm  seasonal cycle of CO 2 in atm Annual imbalance  carbon source/sink photosynthesis decomposition May Oct

8 DIC, NO3 depth atm remineralization photosyn Life Aquatic: (i) Marine productivity Phytoplankton : ~2 weeks Higher trophic levels: 10 1 yr + Shells and carcasses sink --> sediments on ocean floor

9 DIC depth atm remineralization photosyn Life Aquatic: (ii) chemical dissociation DIC = CO 2 + HCO 3 - + CO 3 = 1-2 % 80-90% CO 2 100 Pg C/yr +photosyn  lower DIC  + uptakewer lower pH  + CO2 (sfc water)  + outgassing Higher SST  + CO2  + outgassing Vertical profile of Dissolved Inorganic C (DIC) reflects biology; biology lower 13C/C than water

10 Life Aquatic (iii): Long distance traveller Ocean Thermohaline Circulation: ~10 3 years

11 Life Aquatic: (iii) Long-distance traveller Western Atlantic 60N60S 0 5 km -80 -160 14 C/C: age of ocean circulation 0: modern day 0 5 km 60S40N -240 -160 Western Pacific Youngest – N Atlantic Oldest – N Pacfiic  Trace the path of the thermohaline circulation

12 Life Geologic: Remnants of past life Biologic materials that escape decomposition are compressed at high pressure and temperature for 100’s of millions of years to form coal, oil and natural gas Carboniferous: ~300 million years ago COAL OIL GAS

13 Life Fantastic: The Natural Carbon Cycle Carbon is continuously transformed and cycled Residence time: Land ~10-100 yrs; Ocean ~100-1000 yrs The only long-term sink is “leakage” to sediments

14 C O O C OO OOC   symmetric  bending 15  m   asymmetric 4.3  m Greenhouse effect: Radiation at specific wavelengths excite CO 2 into higher energy states: energy is “absorbed” by the CO 2 molecules Life Aerial: (i) Greenhouse Effect

15 Natural Carbon Cycle is perturbed … 10 FF Emission is a one Way Flux to the atmosphere Ultimate loss to sediments too slow: 38,100/0.2=200 kyr

16 Life Aerial: (ii) Atm CO 2 is increasing Mauna Loa Observatory

17 Current sampling in remote marine locations 17

18 Life Aerial (iii): CO 2 is a long-distance traveller in the atmosphere Long-term increase Seasonal cycle amplitude <10% of global mean N-S gradient ~ 1% global mean

19 Why is CO 2 increasing? (i) Fossil Fuel Combustion & Industrial Processes Robert Adres, CDIAC; Robert Corkery, Vesta Animation http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/multimedia/Annual- carbon-1751-2010-medRes.mp4

20 Fossil Fuel Emissions through Time http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/glob al/multimedia/Annual-carbon-1751- 2010-medRes.mp4

21 Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO 2, 65% over 1990 Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014CDIACLe Quéré et al 2014Global Carbon Budget 2014 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) CO2 emissions (GtCO2/yr)

22 Cut and Burned Why is CO 2 Increasing? (ii) Large Store of Carbon in tropics is disturbed Reduced photosynthesis; Enhanced decomposition

23 Rondonia, Amazon: 2000

24 Rondonia, Amazon: 2001

25 Rondonia, Amazon: 2002

26 Rondonia, Amazon: 2003

27 Rondonia, Amazon: 2004

28 Rondonia, Amazon: 2005

29 Rondonia, Amazon: 2006

30 Rondonia, Amazon: 2007

31 Rondonia, Amazon: 2008

32 Rondonia, Amazon: 2009

33 Rondonia, Amazon: 2010

34 Rondonia, Amazon: 2011

35 Three different methods have been used to estimate land-use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of grey Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014CDIACHoughton et al 2012Giglio et al 2013Le Quéré et al 2014Global Carbon Budget 2014 Total Global Emissions

36 Several Questions How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission? Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go? How fast will CO2 increase in the future?

37 Q1: How do we know the CO 2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion? CO 2 : increasing 13 C/C: decreasing 14 C/C: decreasing --> addition of old C of biologic origin (coal, oil, natural gas) SIO

38 Decrease in O 2 /N 2 in atm --> combustion! SIO

39 Mauna Loa CO2 > South Pole CO2

40 MLO-SPO CO2 gradient increases with FF emission (96% in the northern hemisphere)

41 Several Questions How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission? Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go? How fast will CO2 increase in the future?

42 Q2: Where are the elusive carbon sinks? Land and Oceans have absorbed the rest of the CO 2 Source: CDIAC Data; NOAA/ESRL Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013CDIAC DataNOAA/ESRL DataLe Quéré et al 2013Global Carbon Project 2013

43 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2004-2013 average) Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014CDIACNOAA-ESRLHoughton et al 2012 Giglio et al 2013 Le Quéré et al 2014Global Carbon Budget 2014 26% 9.4±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr 32.4±1.6 GtCO 2 /yr 91% + 3.3±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr 9% 10.6±2.9 GtCO 2 /yr 29% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 15.8±0.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44%

44 Recent Changes in Ocean Carbon Chemistry Surface ocean pCO 2 increasing; follows the atmospheric record at Mauna Loa pH has decreased by 0.04 in 20 years - carbonate more soluble Carbonate ion decreasing: Tougher to precipitate MLO Ocean data from Hawaii Ocean Time Series (HOTS) http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/

45 Several Questions How do we know that the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel emission? Where does the fossil fuel CO2 go? How fast will CO2 increase in the future?

46 Atm CO 2 increase varies with climate 2000-2003: rapid increase because of reduced mid-latitude land uptake (drought) 2004: return of rains reduced southern uptake (Lovenduski et al. 2007; LeQuere et al. 2007) Increase in tropical sink?

47 Outlook: faster CO 2 increase in the atm Recent - decreasing land and ocean carbon sink 21stC: the warming feeds the warming –capacity of land to store carbon decreases with warming and droughts –capacity of oceans to store carbon decreases with warming (decreased solubility), acidification, and increasing stratification (reduced biology with reduced mixing of nutrients from depth) –fossil fuel emission faster than uptake bottleneck - -> larger airborne CO 2 fraction

48 UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Rio de Janeiro, 1992 Ultimate objective: stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human- induced) interference with the climate system Such a level should be achieved within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

49 UNFCCC: Conference Of Parties (COP) (I)Emission Targets COP 3: Kyoto Protocol: Dec 1997 –Binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Union to reduce GHG emissions. – ~5% below 1990 levels over the 5 year period 2008-2012

50 50 Treaty Verification

51 Greenhouse Gas covered by the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change 51 Emissions weighted by 100- yr global warming potential (IPCC 2007) CO2 fossil fuel use (56.6%)

52 Methods for Estimating National Emissions United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) National inventories: –Estimates anthropogenic emissions and removals (sinks) –Based on socio-economic statistics –Self-reporting – varying degrees of confidenc e 52

53 US Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission DOE: Energy Information Agency: inventory of fuels Emission = Fuel weight x emission factor EPA: eGRID inventory of consumption Emission = Activity x emission factor EPA does not include bunker fuels 53 (Emission per ton steel) (Steel Production)

54 US Emission Estimates – agree to 3% 54 Measure directly at stack Calculate from mass of fuel

55 55 Trust but Verify

56 CO 2 Sampler LAND CO 2 Sampler Prevailing Wind CO 2 Tracer-Transport Inversion Current errors of 100% or more for all gases. Atmospheric CO 2 Pattern Reflects Emission Pattern 56

57 Methods for Estimating Emissions Bottom-up: UNFCCC National inventories –Estimates anthropogenic emissions and removals (sinks) –Based on socio-economic statistics Top-Down: Tracer-transport inversion –Estimates net anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks –Based on atmospheric and/or oceanic measurements of the gases and models of air and water flow 57

58 Improving Independent Estimates of Fossil- Fuel CO2 Emissions 58 Deploy a CO 2 -sensing satellite Establish new atmospheric sampling stations (ground, ocean surface, aircraft) in strategic locations Measure 14 C in the CO 2 samples already being collected

59 (i) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) High resolution spectra of reflected sunlight in near IR CO 2 and O 2 bands 3 km 2 footprint at nadir 3 Hz Sun-Synchronous Orbit (7km/s): 16-day repeat Clouds/Aerosols, H 2 O, Temperature CO 2 1.61  m CO 2 2.06  m Clouds/Aerosols, Surface Pressure Column CO 2 O 2 A-band Local Nadir Glint Spot Ground Track Nadir Glint

60 OCO Launch: 01:55:30 PST 24 February 2009 OCO failed to achieve orbit Approved for reflight, 2010: climate treaty verification.

61 Liftoff OCO2 1:56am PST July 2 2014 Vandenberg Air Force Base, California https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njf67aov4XA July 1: Aborted launch T-42 seconds

62 “The A-Train”: comprehensive observations OCO2 13:15: AURA 13:38: TES – T, P, H 2 O, O 3, CH 4, CO MLS – O 3, H 2 O, CO HIRDLS – T, O 3, H 2 O, CO 2, CH 4 OMI – O 3, aerosol climatology aerosols, polarization CloudSat – 3-D cloud climatology CALIPSO – 3-D aerosol climatology AIRS – T, P, H 2 O, CO 2, CH 4 MODIS – cloud, aerosols, albedo OCO - - CO 2 O 2 A-band p s, clouds, aerosols AMSR2 - - SST, sea ice, precip water vapor, cloud liq water 705 km orbit. First data expected November 2014

63 Summary: Climate Treaty Verification Need to verify self-reported emission estimates Need to establish baseline emissions Need to account for changing land and ocean sinks Satellite CO2 + carbon data assimilation system  CO2 fluxes at sub-national levels Will demonstrate CO2 sensing at local scales 63

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