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ONCE AGAIN: 10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS Edsel L. Beja, Jr. ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY.

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Presentation on theme: "ONCE AGAIN: 10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS Edsel L. Beja, Jr. ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY."— Presentation transcript:

1 ONCE AGAIN: 10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS Edsel L. Beja, Jr. ATENEO DE MANILA UNIVERSITY

2 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD Economic Performance Before & After the Asian Crisis Forensic Accounting: Cost of the Asian Crisis

3 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD Philip Tetlock (1996). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Robert Fogel (2007). Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations, NBER WP No 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research Lance Taylor and Codrina Rada (2007). Can the Poor Countries Catch Up? Mixed Results from Extended Sources of Growth Projections for the Early 21st Century, Metroeconomica 58(1):

4 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

5 Crisis-affected Asian Economies Data: World Development Indicators Asian Development Outlook Figures are normalized to 1996

6 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:

7 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:

8 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:

9 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:

10

11 ECONOMIC COST

12 Forensic Accounting: Asian Crisis Data: World Development Indicators Asian Development Outlook Trending

13 ECONOMIC COST: Indonesia

14 ECONOMIC COST: Malaysia

15 ECONOMIC COST: Philippines

16 ECONOMIC COST: South Korea

17 ECONOMIC COST: Thailand

18 ECONOMIC COST: Indonesia

19 ECONOMIC COST: Malaysia

20 ECONOMIC COST: Philippines

21 ECONOMIC COST: South Korea

22 ECONOMIC COST: Thailand

23 ECONOMIC COSTS Indonesia $ 36.8B $ 89.7B $ 94.7B [24%] [41%] [41%] Malaysia $ 13.1B $ 37.0B $ 39.0B [17%] [31%] [31%] Philippines $ 9.8B $ 6.5B $ 6.6B [ 6%] [ 7%] [ 6%] South Korea $ 62.1B $ 54.2B $ 52.3B [14%] [ 8%] [ 7%] Thailand $ 39.6B $ 87.8B $ 95.1B [35%] [53%] [55%]

24 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD

25 ONCE AGAIN: THANK YOU

26 LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD Dynamic Expansion: Pull-up Growth Strategy Broad-based / Balanced / Sustainable Growth Role of Government: Take Steps to Realize Robust Growth, thru Variety of Strategies Managing Intl Flows: Supply Side Issues of International Finance and Trade Intl Intervention: Managing the Storm Intl Cooperation: Policies and Reforms


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