2. Chinas Relations with Developing Asia: Integration through Trade Deepanwita Dutta Presentation for IDEAs-RIS Workshop on Nature and Implications of Expanding Presence of India and China for Asia, 5-6 November 2009, New Delhi, India

3. Impact of Chinas High & Sustained Growth Substantial increase in Chinas share in world exports and imports Increase of export share from 3.4% in 1998 to 8.1% in 2006 Increase of import share from 2.5% in 1998 to 6.4% in 2006 Change in the geographical composition of Chinas export and import partners Though developed country markets remain Chinas export destinations, its imports increasingly sourced from developing Asian countries

4. Direction of Chinas Exports

5. Sources of Chinas Imports

6. Findings of the study: China has played a dynamic role in the rapid expansion of regional trade by becoming the regional hub of the global production network Chinas integration into the regional production network has, instead of crowding out export opportunities for poor developing countries, actually created more opportunities for these countries. Southeast Asian countries increased participation in the China- centered global production sharing has made the region increasingly dependent on Chinas extra-regional trade.

7. Findings of the study (continued) Chinas nature of integration with South Asian countries is different from that with Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia has much deeper integration with China through intra-industry trade and production sharing. Chinas growth of exports has not come mainly from primary commodities but from machinery, and electrical & electronic equipments, which have been its highest export categories during 2002-07 (42%).

8. South Asia accounts for a very small share of Chinas trade

9. South Asias Trade with China Trade data shows that China was more important as a supplier to South Asia. South Asia mostly imported machinery (HS 84) and electrical & electronic equipments (HS 85). Other import sectors that had come up recently were iron & steel; articles of iron & steel; fertilizers; manmade filaments and manmade staple fibres. South Asias prime exports to China were primary commodities-- cotton; and ores, slag & ash. However, the growing shares of electrical & electronic equipments; pharmaceutical products; and plastics & articles suggest considerable diversification of export sectors happening within the manufacturing sector. Though Chinas share in South Asias exports was in the range of 2-3% during 1998-2007, the growing exports from these countries suggest that Chinas growth has offered a bigger market for these South Asian countries.

10. Southeast Asian countries trade with China Trade volumes have increased significantly since 1998. According to ASEAN Statistics, total trade between ASEAN and China reached about US$ 193 bn in 2008, which accounts for 11.3% of ASEANs total trade. EXPORTS 1998200220072008 ASEANs exports to China (US$ million)9,20319,54877,94585,557 % of Total2.95.19.19.7 IMPORTS ASEANs imports from China (US$ million)11,21223,21293,173106,977 % of Total4.37.112.412.9

11. Shares of Southeast Asian Countries in Chinas Total Trade

12. Chinas Share in Export of Southeast Asian Countries Chinas share has been increasing steadily in Thailands, the Philippines and Indonesias exports; it has recorded the highest share in the Philippines exports. Chinas share recorded the highest growth in Vietnams export (10.9%) up to 2004; after that it fell, recording the lowest among the four countries in 2007.

13. Chinas Share in Import of Southeast Asian Countries There has been a steady increase of Chinas share in Southeast Asian countries imports in the years since 1998. Chinas share in all these countries imports were much higher than its share in their exports except in the case of the Philippines. Chinas share in the Philippines export was much higher than in its import.

14. Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China Manufactured intermediate goods dominated Thailands & the Philippines exports to China Machinery (HS 84) and electrical & electronic equipments (HS 85) dominated both the countries exports. Together the two commodity groups constituted 82% of the Philippines export and 38.3% of Thailands export during 2002-07. This concentration has consistently increased post-2002. There has also been noticeable increases in the shares of certain primary commodities like edible vegetables and certain roots & tubers; edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons; and cereals in case of Thailand, while in case of the Philippines it is ores, slag & ash; and mineral fuels, oils & distillation products.

15. Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China (Continued) Manufactured intermediate and final goods dominated Thailands & the Philippines imports from China Electrical & electronic equipments and machinery emerged as the most important commodity groups of import for Thailand & the Philippines. Together these two sectors constituted 54% of Thailands and 46% of the Philippines total imports from China during 2002- 07. Other sectors that registered huge increases in imports since 2001 were iron & steel; articles of iron & steel; plastics & articles thereof. Sharp decline of agriculture-based cereals and resource-based rubber in the Philippines import suggests diversion from primary agriculture-based commodities towards manufacturing intermediate goods.

16. Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China (Continued) Primary goods dominated Indonesias & Vietnams exports to China The major chunk (34.3%) of Indonesias export to China was mineral fuels, oils & distillation product (HS 27) during 2002-07; for Vietnam too this formed the major export item (47%) during the same period. Other commodities which increased their shares in the 2002-07 period in Indonesias export were ores, slag & ash; and copper & articles thereof. Other important items in Vietnams export to China were agriculture-based products like cuttle fish, squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; coconuts, fresh or dried, cashew nuts, fresh or dried; and natural rubbers in other forms.

17. Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China (Continued) Indonesias export basket to China and to the world are more or less similar for the obvious reason that it is a resource rich country. Despite being predominantly a primary commodity supplier, there is some diversification observed within the manufacturing sector in Indonesias export to the world. During 2002-07, Indonesia exported significant shares of machinery (4.7%) & electrical and electronic equipments (8.4%) to the world. During the same period, Indonesias import of these commodity groups from China constituted 26% of its total imports, the second largest after mineral fuels.

18. Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China (Continued) Capital or intermediate goods and high level technical items were the dominant imports of Indonesia & Vietnam The important imports of Indonesia were mineral fuel (16%) and machinery; and electrical & electronic equipments. Iron & steel emerged as the most important imported commodity group of Vietnam, followed by machinery; and mineral fuels, oils & distillation products during 2002-07.

19. Commodity Composition of Southeast Asias Trade with China reveals that: Thailand and the Philippines had strong intra-industry trade with China especially in machinery and electrical & electronic equipments. Other sectors that exhibited intra-industry trade were iron & steel; rubber & articles thereof; and organic chemicals. China mostly imported primary and intermediate products from these countries in order to process them and produce final goods for exports. Chinas Exports were destined predominantly towards developed markets.

20. Chinas Commodity Composition of Trade, 2002-07 ExportImport

21. Chinas trade in Machinery and Electrical Equipments (US$ bn) China has emerged as a net exporter in these two categories since 2003.

22. Major Observations of the Study Chinas export growth has led to increase in its imports from developing Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, Chinas emergence has indeed boosted intra-regional trade by offering a bigger market for these developing Asian countries. FDI has played an extremely important role in this process as multinationals from developed East Asian countries have relocated parts of their production processes to China (even as they continue to source inputs from home countries and other parts of Asia).

23. The rapid expansion of intra-industry trade and production sharing, which is concentrated among the first-tier Asian NIEs and subsequently the second-tier Asian NIEs, is also heavily concentrated in the two sectors, the machinery; and electrical and electronic equipments. This entails certain risks. Any fall in demand for Chinese exports of machinery and electronic equipments from the developed countries would lead to fall in the trade, adversely affecting the developing countries of Asia. In fact, the dependence of other countries on China increases their vulnerability to external shocks and business cycles. Therefore, this dimension has to be taken into account while adopting policy initiatives in the domain of regional economic integration.

24. Thank You!!!