Presentation on theme: "Patterns of Adjustment under the Age of Finance: The Case of Turkey as a Peripheral agent of New- Imperialism A. Erinç Yeldan University of Massachusetts,"— Presentation transcript:
Patterns of Adjustment under the Age of Finance: The Case of Turkey as a Peripheral agent of New- Imperialism A. Erinç Yeldan University of Massachusetts, Amherst Bilkent University, Ankara
In these papers all needless matters have been eliminated... There is throughout no statement of past things wherein memory may err, for all the records chosen are exactly contemporary, given the knowledge of those who made them. - Bram Stoker, Dracula, 1897
With the completion of capital account liberalization in 1989, Turkey is trapped into high real rates of interest and an overvalued exchange rate (cheap foreign currency)
Inflation of Producer Prices and The Interest Rate on GDIs
Worsening of macroeconomic fundamentals led by capital inflows: The Frenkel-Taylor cycle Rise in the domestic interest rate: Stimulate capital inflows Domestic currency appreciates Imports expand, current account deficit widens To finance the foreign deficit, invite even more capital inflows, raise the interest rate
The 2000 Dis-Inflation Programme From Speculative-led Growth to IMF-led Crisis...
Stanley Fischer With the implementation of a more stringent fiscal policy, the crisis might perhaps have been alleviated. Unfortunately, the fiscal policy had not been strong enough, and the current account deficit widened...
Annual Volume of Banking Credit Flows From Abroad (Millions US$)
Adjustment Mechanisms after the 2001 Crisis and the Main Features of the IMF Programme
Inflation is on a falling trend, yet the real interest rate proves to be inertial...
Inflation and Real Interest Rates (WPI 1994 =100)
Large scale of Capital Inflows lead to currency Mis-alignment...
Real Bilateral and the Trade Weighted Rates of Foreign Exchange
Ratio of Current Account Balance to GNP
The current account deficit problem emerges not because of its sheer size, but because of the mode of financing
Composition of Foreign Debt (Millions $)
Dilemmas of Turkish adjustment: Economic growth relies on foreign capital inflows, which necessitate high real interest rates domestically; yet High real interest rates aggrevate the problem of debt management
jobless growth and declining real wages...
Turkey: Labor Productivity and Real Wages,
Source: EconomicPolicy Institute
Wages and Producticity in the US Manufacturing ( )
Productivity and Real Wages in Turkish Manufacturing,
Public policy became synonymous to populism and waste. Good-bye Budget deficits, hello democracy deficit...
Excerpts from Morgan Stanley Economic Forum on Turkey, March 4, 2003 the latest parliamentary decision to reject the much-debated war motion is such a risk that will no doubt disturb the fragile equilibrium...(Turkey) is unlikely to get the promised $24 billion that would ease pressure on the domestic debt market...
what happens if the parliament does not altogether vote for the economic reforms, arguing that 80% of the Turkish population is against the IMF program?
Lessons the argument that this time things are different is a statement that can only be made by fools that fail to take any lessons from history... Kenneth Rogoff, 2005