1. Development Denied: JPEPA within AJCEPA IBON Foundation December 8, 2009

2. The Philippines (2008) Population of 91 million 2nd largest in Southeast Asia 13th largest in the world GNP (nominal) – $185.5 B GDP (PPP) – $317.5 B 5th largest in Southeast Asia 38th in the world GDP (PPP) per capita – $3,300 163rd in the world

3. Background AJCEPA signed - April 2008 entered into force - December 2008 implemented by Japan and seven ASEAN countries: Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand JPEPA signed - September 2006 entered into force - December 2008.

4. Policy context of talks (1) 1.Strong bias for market-based foreign capital-driven and -defined development Vigorously implemented since 1980s, now arguably among most formally open countries in region Yet unfavorable outcomes Industrial & agricultural decline Record joblessness, rising poverty

5. Policy context of talks (2) 2.As a result, Philippine economy now has elements predisposing policy to further liberalization Marked increase in presence of foreign capital with major export interests Migration & remittances (i.e., cheap labor export) a major prop of the economy Local industrial capital greatly diminished

6. Philippines vis-à-vis JPEPA/AJCEPA (1) FTA strategy not underpinned by any coherent policy of domestic agricultural & industrial development Even before JPEPA/AJCEPA, Japan & Philippines in general already quite open to each other JPEPA more comprehensive and substantial of the two deals (WTO+)

7. Philippines vis-à-vis JPEPA/AJCEPA (2) JPEPA concrete commitments in goods, services, investments, and movement of natural persons provisions for further action in intellectual property, government procurement, competition policy, dispute settlement AJCEPA concrete commitments only in goods provisions for further action in other areas explicitly recognizes SDT and flexibility for LDCs has chapters on SPS and on standards

8. Towards inclusive trade policies? Clear what advanced economies want from the ASEAN countries – Yet less clear what kind of mutually beneficial integration ASEAN countries can have with each other doesnt just put them in a self-destructive race-to-the-bottom Basic problem in the Philippines: retrograde political leadership opposed to alternative policies – How to build democratic momentum to expand what is politically possible, and developmentally urgent, in the socioeconomic realm?

9. Salamat po