1. EFIMOD – a system of models for Forest Management A.S. Komarov, A.V. Mikhailov, S.S. Bykhovets, M.V.Bobrovsky, E.V.Zubkova Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, Russia A.S. Komarov, A.V. Mikhailov, S.S. Bykhovets, M.V.Bobrovsky, E.V.Zubkova Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, Russia O.G. Chertov, M.A.Nadporozhskaya Biological Institute of St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg-Peterhoff, Russia L.G.Khanina, V.E.Smirnov Institute of Mathematical Problems in Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region, Russia

2. Short description of the EFIMOD model EFIMOD is spatially explicit individual based model of forest ecosystem The system consists of 3 main parts: tree sub model, soil sub model (ROMUL) and statistical climate generator (SCLISS) Tree sub model is an individual growth simulator in dependence on light and soil nitrogen ROMUL is the model of forest soil organic matter dynamics SCLISS allows us to estimate soil temperature and moisture using measured standard meteorological data (statistical and long-term measured series ) EFIMOD is spatially explicit individual based model of forest ecosystem The system consists of 3 main parts: tree sub model, soil sub model (ROMUL) and statistical climate generator (SCLISS) Tree sub model is an individual growth simulator in dependence on light and soil nitrogen ROMUL is the model of forest soil organic matter dynamics SCLISS allows us to estimate soil temperature and moisture using measured standard meteorological data (statistical and long-term measured series )

3. EFIMOD 2 flow chart

4. EFIMOD 2: Tree sub model

5. EFIMOD 2: Soil sub model ROMUL

6. ROMUL sub model (soil) EFIMOD model interconnections Fine roots Coarse roots Stem Branches Foliages Tree species3 Fine roots Coarse roots Stem Branches Foliages Tree species2 Fine roots Coarse roots Stem Branches Foliage Tree species1 Litter & deadwood EFIMOD stand sub model N av

7. The EFIMOD Input Data Standard monthly climatic data Monthly nitrogen input from the atmosphere Standard inventory characteristics of the stand Main soil hydrological characteristics Pools of soil organic matter and nitrogen in organic and mineral soil Standard monthly climatic data Monthly nitrogen input from the atmosphere Standard inventory characteristics of the stand Main soil hydrological characteristics Pools of soil organic matter and nitrogen in organic and mineral soil

8. ROMUL validation: Measured and simulated CO 2 emission from a soil in dependence on temperature Pajari, 1995 Matteucci et al., 2000 (in Schultze, 2000) (in Schultze, 2000)

9. Model validation Jadråås, Sweden, Scots pine

10. EFIMOD validation: stem biomass for BFTCS Black spruce sites, Central Canada

11. Area of applicability Evaluation of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems Analysis of consequences of the different types of cuttings Restoring of unmeasured data in the ecosystem (CO2 emission, mineral nitrogen). Analysis of silvicultural operations (fertilizers, soil amendments, burning of cutting residuals etc.) Analysis of carbon and nitrogen dynamics at fires and insect attacks

12. Case study The State Forest “Russky Les” is situated at 100 km South of Moscow (Russia) on Central East European Plain at the border between coniferous and broad-leaved forest zones with continental climate. 104 stands were selected (Total area is 273.4 ha) Частотное распределение ТУМов ( Погребняк П.С.,1955 ) Влажность Climate Site classes moisture fertility Stand composition

13. Effects on forest ecosystems of climate change Spread of disease? the availability of water? Global warming ?

14. Climate change scenarios Climate change scenario HadCM3 + (UK, Hulme et al., 1999) Hadley Centre Coupled Model, v. 3 General circulation model GCM GISS, PCM, HadCM3, ECHAM4, CGCM, CSIRO et al. Emissions Scenarios A1Fi A1: Rapid convergent growth: A1Fi: Fossil-fuel Intensive A1B: Balance A1T: emphasis on new Technology A2: Fragmented world B1: Convergence with global environmental emphasis B2: Local sustainability

15. Influence of Climate change on Carbon (C) dynamics Climate Change Increasing Of Biomass Decreasing Of SOM

16. What is impact of silvicultural activities on forest ecosystem development?

17. Silvicultural regimes selected for 200-year simulation - regeneration; - thinning; - Main cutting NAT SCU LRU ILL

18. Silvicultural regimes selected for 200-year simulation Natural development (Nat). This scenario is a full protection of the forest in all forest compartments without cutting Legal practice (LRU). The scenario describes managed forest with 4 thinnings (at 5, 10, 25 and 50 years), time of the final clear cutting depends on target species, with successful natural regeneration Selective cutting system (SCU). Managed forest with 2 thinnings and then selective cuttings each 30 years (30% of basal area from above) Illegal practice (ILL). It is a heavy upper thinning and removing of the best trees, clear cutting without conservation of natural regeneration Natural development (Nat). This scenario is a full protection of the forest in all forest compartments without cutting Legal practice (LRU). The scenario describes managed forest with 4 thinnings (at 5, 10, 25 and 50 years), time of the final clear cutting depends on target species, with successful natural regeneration Selective cutting system (SCU). Managed forest with 2 thinnings and then selective cuttings each 30 years (30% of basal area from above) Illegal practice (ILL). It is a heavy upper thinning and removing of the best trees, clear cutting without conservation of natural regeneration

19. A case study experimental forestry “Russkii Les” (Moscow region) 273 ha 104 units

20. Difference of carbon in trees between last (200) and first time step of simulation NAT SCU LRU ILL NAT – natural development SCU – selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice

21. Soil Carbon Maps ( Organic Layer+Mineral Soil ) kg/m 2 NAT SCU LRU ILL Initial

22. Soil Carbon dynamics at different silvicultural regimes NAT SCU LRU ILL

23. Dynamics of Deadwood Carbon is produced with EFIMOD

24. Difference of soil carbon between last and first time step of simulation NAT SCU LRU ILL Mean carbon value in soil Dynamics of soil carbon NAT – natural development SCU – selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice

25. Frequency distribution dynamics of stands with different Carbon stocks SCU ILL LRU Nat Brown: from 0 to 100 t/ha; White from 101 to 200 t/ha; Green from 201

26. Carbon flows Carbon changes Total Carbon balance

27. Differences between C stock under stable climate and climate change Soil CarbonTree Carbon NAT – natural development SCU – selective cutting LRU – legal practice ILL – illegal practice

28. Biodiversity assessment Initial LRU NAT SCU ILL Tree dominant dynamics

29. Biodiversity assessment Initial LRU NATSCU ILL Dynamics of functional groups in ground vegetation

30. Initial LRU NATSCU ILL Dynamics of species diversity ranks in ground vegetation Biodiversity assessment

31.  Total number of forest types is higher in all scenarios with cuttings relative to the NAT scenario  The NAT strategy leads to the growth of coniferous-broad- leaved forests close to the climax forest type of the study area  The NAT strategy leads to the highest species diversity in ground vegetation if a free forest development has taken place for rather long time  The SCU scenario lead to a simplification of ground vegetation together with a conservation of nemoral and boreal species  Scenarios with clear cuttings (LRU and ILL) maintain piny and meadow groups in ground vegetation The simulation results showed