1. Trajectories to Extinction Savrina Carrizo Dr Nick Isaac, Dr Michael Brooke and Dr Kate Jones Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

2. Outline Research plan – Spatial patterns of population decline

3. Outline Research plan – Spatial patterns of population decline – Spatial patterns of population expansion

4. Outline Research plan – Spatial patterns of population decline – Spatial patterns of population expansion – Shifting geographic ranges due to climate change

5. Population decline How do populations decline? t0t0 tntn extinction healthy population number of individuals

6. Population decline How do populations decline? t0t0 tntn healthy population extinction number of individuals local abundance

7. Population decline How do populations decline? t0t0 tntn extinction healthy population number of individuals local abundance number of populations

8. Population decline Northern Bobwhite Colinus virginianus USGS BBS (2005) & Cornell Lab of Ornithology (2003)

9. Data source

10. Spatial patterns of decline

11. Macro-ecological patterns of population decline can inform conservation strategies ?

12. Spatial patterns of decline How do occupancy and abundance structure change with declining populations?

13. Spatial patterns of decline time abundance occupancy

14. Spatial patterns of decline time occupancy abundance

15. Spatial patterns of decline There are several scenarios of population decline Explore correlates of these patterns e.g. land use change Monitoring strategies occupancy abundance

16. Monitoring strategies What kind of monitoring strategies will be most effective in detecting different spatial patterns of population decline?

17. Monitoring strategies Mongolia: 79% of large herbivores and 12% of carnivores are declining and threatened with extinction

18. Monitoring strategies Wild camels – only 460 individuals Gobi bear – less than 50 individuals Red deer – 92% decline in 18 years

19. Expanding species Ash-throated Flycatcher Myiarchus cinerascens USGS BBS (2005) & Cornell Lab of Ornithology (2003)

20. Management of invasive species The flip-side of the same spatial patterns can be applied to understanding the expansion of invasive populations occupancy abundance

21. Management of invasive species

24. Landscape approach Management of invasive species

25. Landscape approach

26. Management of invasive species Landscape approach

27. Management of invasive species Landscape approach Targeted approach

28. Are species ranges shifting North? Centre of gravity Boundaries

29. Summary Macro-ecological spatial patterns can provide insight into – population decline – population expansion – shifting geographic ranges due to climate change Applications – Conservation strategies – Modelling species future ranges

30. Acknowledgements Cambridge Commonwealth Trusts Poynton Australia Scholarship Supervisors: Dr Michael Brooke Dr Nick Isaac Dr Kate Jones THANK YOU!