Forecasting maximum day temperature from the tephigram Empirical method formulated by E.Gold (1933). Still in operational use with UK Met.Office. Makes use of pre-dawn temperature profile to forecast hourly temperature rise and daily maximum. Only works under clear skies.
Appraisal of the Carson model Carson model with sinusoidal sensible heat flux used to predict CBL depth. Magnitude of heat flux equal to peak net radiation sensed at Reading. Carson CBL depth compared to observed CBL depth from afternoon radiosonde ascent.
Conclusions Results using Golds Method show that the simplified temperature evolution is of practical use. Carson model results are of the same order of magnitude as the observations. Large uncertainties mainly due to lack of sufficient input data.
Future work and improvements Site all observations together. Attempt to estimate the terms in the surface energy balance. Obtain better observations of the CBL e.g. by tethered balloon.