1. CARRA – Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia: An Introduction Presentation at the third inter-agency conference on “Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia” Almaty, 14-15 April 2011 Johannes F. Linn jlinn@brookings.edu

2. CARRA’s links to global issues CARRA Global Themes Global Instruments 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 2

3. Global Themes: MDGs + Global crisis response Social Protection Food security Rural development, nutrition, health Energy security Water security Disaster preparedness/response Fragile states (note: Middle East) Climate change 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 3

4. Global Instruments Aid effectiveness Paris Declaration, Accra Agenda Busan HLF 4: Division of labor, transparency, south-south cooperation + fragile states, risk management, scaling up, etc. Humanitarian-development assistance linkage Risk assessment, monitoring, preparedness and response Hyogo IFI financial safety nets Social protection Risk insurance (weather, seismic, etc.) Thematic instruments GAFSP, SUN Climate change funds Poverty and Environment Facility Regional cooperation for regional public goods 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 4

5. CARRA Issues Themes Disaster risk reduction (DRR) Water and energy security Food security Social Protection  Climate change  Focus on Central Asia Instruments Information sharing, coordination, cooperation among agencies Risk monitoring/early warning and response Humanitarian-development linkages Regional cooperation and capacity building 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 5

6. CARRA Theme 1: DRR The challenge: Natural disaster risks (NDRs) are multiple, severe and rising Highest risk: earthquakes (next slide), but there are others Climate change is reinforcing non-seismic NDRs The questions for CARRA: What do we know about the NDRs? What are the priorities in DRR? Research, risk monitoring, preparedness, capacity building,… Who is doing what? What’s the need, scope, resources for more national/regional action, coordination, cooperation? Next steps? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 6

7. Seismic risk in Central Asia Source: World Bank, UNISDR 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 7

8. CARRA Theme 2: Water/energy security The challenge: “the perfect storm” Chronic water/energy insecurity, esp. severe in KYR, TAJ, UZB Recurrent crises (weather and water/energy management) Agriculture/industry/food security/poverty impacts Climate change reinforces risks The questions for CARRA: What do we know about water/energy insecurity? What are the priorities in water/energy risk response? Who is doing what? What’s the need, scope, resources for more national/regional action, coordination, cooperation? Next steps? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 8

9. CARRA Theme 3: Food Security The challenge: High chronic and transitory food insecurity in KYR, TAJ, UZB Reinforced by high/volatile global food prices, high dependency on volatile imports, national agricultural constraints Limited fiscal capacity, policy and governance reform The questions for CARRA: What do we know about food insecurity in Central Asia? What are the priorities? Who is doing what? What’s the need, scope, resources for more national/regional action, coordination, cooperation? How to bring global initiatives to bear on CA’s problems (GAFSP, SUN) Next steps? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 9

10. CARRA Theme 4: Social Protection The opportunity and challenge: Social protection (SP) mechanisms can serve as safety net for chronic and transitory risks to the poor, but: SP mechanisms fragmented, poorly targeted, inflexible and/or little developed in Central Asia Fiscal and institutional capacity is limited (esp. in LICs) No SP response so far in compound crises (exc. KYR) The questions for CARRA: What do we know about SP in Central Asia? What are the priorities? (How about insurance?) Who is doing what? What’s the need, scope, resources for more national/regional action, coordination, cooperation? How to bring global initiatives to bear on CA’s problems? (IFIs’ safety nets) Next steps? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 10

11. CARRA Instruments 1: Information sharing/coordination among agencies The challenge: Many multi/bilateral agencies are engaged on the issues Crisis have been not been recognized early; response has often been slow, uncoordinated, limited impact Many uncoordinated initiatives are being pursued to deal with chronic issues Information remains scattered The questions for CARRA: Are we making progress? (Yes, but…) What can be done to share information better? How can we respond better to crises? (Lessons from KYR?) How can we coordinate long-term engagement? (Lessons from TAJ?) What role for CARRA? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 11

12. CARRA Instruments 2: Risk monitoring and preparedness The challenge: National risk monitoring capacity has declined since Soviet days; it is limited at national level and fragmented at a regional level Ditto for risk preparedness and response capacity Global instruments and support are focused elsewhere The questions for CARRA: Do we know enough about who does what now? What are the priorities for further national/regional action? What’s the role for CARRA? What can CARRA do to ensure global attention on Central Asia? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 12

13. CARRA Instruments 3: Humanitarian- Development Linkages The challenge: Humanitarian/crisis response is delinked from long-term development response Need to build three links: Incorporate development considerations into crisis response Focus on transition from crisis response to development assistance (“early recovery”) Incorporate risk management into national/regional development planning The questions for CARRA: What are the lessons from CA experience? (KYR, TAJ) How to bring to bear global experience/instruments? How to incorporate into work of CARRA thematic areas? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 13

14. CARRA Instruments 4: Regional cooperation and capacity building The challenge: Limited focus on the national risk management issues Limited engagement by national leadership Limited focus by major regional organizations Fragmented engagement by international agencies The questions for CARRA: Are these issues of regional significance and amenable to regional response? How to get greater focus at national and regional level? What are the regional institutions that would most likely pursue these issues effectively and at a high political level? What is CARRA’s role in supporting regional approaches? 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 14

15. In conclusion An important, big, complex, urgent agenda Many challenges, many questions (not unlike elsewhere) There is progress CARRA can make a contribution For the future: Keep it focused, realistic, simple, scale up Limit themes Keep expectations realistic Keep follow-up mechanisms simple Build on success, scale up what works nationally and regionally And keep committed to information sharing, coordination, partnership and engagement with country stakeholders 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 15

16. Thank you! Спасибо! 4/13/11jlinn@brookings.edu 16