1. The Climate Threat & Conservation Facing Certainty & Uncertainty T. Kittel © 2011, T. Kittel, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder

2. Niwot Ridge, Southern US Rockies Subalpine Spruce-Fir Forest March Maximum Temperature Trend = + 0.9=C/decade Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology

3. Spring snowmelt  Hydrograph shifts Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology +20d later –20d earlier Timing of spring snowmelt 1948-2000 trends Also: Warmer river temperatures

4. Manifestation of Change - Biosphere Earliest observation dates of Common Loons in the central and northern interior of British Columbia Earlier Spring Events - bird migration Common Loon arrival British Columbia interior – 8 dy/decade (p < 0.001)

5. Steps to Understanding – Historical Analyses Ecological Record 61 studies of 694 species or groups of species - Root et al. 2003. Nature Changes in spring timing of a species ’ temperature-related trait earlier later Terrestrial – Longer Growing Season - with earlier spring bud break Shifts in Plant & Animal Distributions - poleward and upward Also:

6. The Uncertainties – The Underlying Problem Socioeconomic, Climate, & Ecological Systems – Complex systems: Many components  Highly interactive Key processes: Span wide range of temporal & spatial scales Multiple forcings Non-linear  Thresholds Cryosphere Biosphere Land Surface Bottomline - Difficult to gather key data Difficult to predict behavior

7. Uncertainty – Sources Socio-economic Pathway – Emissions Uncertainty ? Which world? – Our choice

8. Climate Model Limitations  Uncertainty – Sources “Same Conceptual Basis, Different Results” For a given emission scenario… Different models’ outcomes ? A2 °C°C

9. CGCM1 HADCM2SUL MC1LPJ Model Uncertainty – Total Ecosystem Carbon Uncertainty – Sources “Same Ecology, Different Results” - at the regional level © 2007, T. Kittel

10. Total Ecosystem Carbon Uncertainty – Sources “Same Ecology, Different Results” - with time © 2007, T. Kittel For a given emission scenario… for a given climate model scenario

11. The Certainties – Climate ‘What do we know for sure?’ – lessons from the climate models ‘Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful’- GEP Box, 1987 (1) Very character of regional climates will likely change over the next decades: –Multivariate Higher surface temperatures – different responses for T min T max Regional changes in precipitation, cloud cover (light regime), wind regimes, etc. –In means, but in also seasonality and interannual variability

12. Niwot Ridge, Southern US Rockies Subalpine Spruce-Fir Forest March Maximum Temperature Trend = + 0.9=C/decade Geographic and temporal coherence in forcings & responses?

13. “Strong Seasonal and Location Dependence” Niwot Ridge T(max) Trends Subalpine Forest March = +0.9=C/decade Nov = -0.5=C/decade Alpine Tundra MONTH –Trends will be spatially dependent – even for Landscapes Local landscape variation in surface interactions with atmosphere

14. –Trends likely not to be monotonic As circulation patterns shift, & the system passes thresholds –Multivariate, non-linear changes give rise to novel climates The Certainties – Climate

15. (2) Probable climate changes are of a magnitude and character to be significant for populations, communities, and landscapes: –Phenologies/life cycles –Geographic ranges –Ecosystem structure & function Resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded With extended periods dominated by seral stages –Species interactions out of phase: Foodwebs, competition, pollination Certainties – The Biosphere – lessons from the ecological models Red-footed Booby in Mangrove Galápagos Is.

16. “The Forgotten Pollinators” Rufous Hummingbird Monarch Butterfly White-winged Dove Arizona-Sonoran Desert Museum www.desertmuseum.org/pollination/ Lesser Long-nosed Bat “Nectar corridors” Sequence of flowering plants Long-distance migratory pollinators Threatened – habitat loss Keystone species

17. –Changes not monotonic – ‘Winners vs. losers’? New equilibrium long in coming Certainties – The Biosphere “The loser now. Will be later to win” – Bob Dylan (1964, The Times They Are A-Changin‘) –The rise of novel ecosystem types

18. Certainties – The Biosphere –Strong synergisms with other stressors Compounding effects of multiple threats

19. The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system sensitivity The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything The Lessons  Difficult for conservation action??

20. Conservation Strategies Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam  Steps to Understanding – Integrate Best Knowledge  Steps to Action – Deal with Uncertainty Enhance Adaptive Capacity

21. The Uncertainty – Coping “Get over it” Ecosystem Futures Financial Market Dynamics Change perspective on it  Recognize it – Be smart about it “If we build our … strategy around the [recognition] that we ’ re pretty darn ignorant, we probably won ’ t have to wait very long for confirmation” - John Clements, Wall Street Journal

22. “Conserve smart” = Implement strategies that recognize & handle uncertainty 5 key tenets: 1.Monitor temporal dynamics & trends – develop intuition Historical analysis Start monitoring as soon as get in the game, not as an afterthought  Research & Monitoring 2.Diversify holdings – to reduce risk in any one preserve  Site Selection & Prioritization Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog

23. 5 key tenets (con’t): 3.Balance goals: Protecting current conservation sites & Protecting sites with potential for adaptation  Multiple-Goal Portfolio  Enhanced Adaptive Capacity 4.Save aggressively – to counter downside risk of uncertainty “How much is enough?”  Target Redundancy 5.Rebalance portfolio Reassess strategy  Adaptive Management Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog

24. Steps to Action – Adaptive Strategies Enhance Adaptive Capacity – Adopt ‘No Regrets’ & Scenario-independent Practices Example strategies – –Reduce vulnerability to other threats Habitat loss, Invasive species, Pollution –Protect processes Watersheds, Food webs, Life cycles –Landscape restoration Value of degraded sites –Create networks of reserves & Reduce barriers: ‘Porous landscapes’

25. The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system sensitivity The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything Steps to Action – Integrate Best Knowledge Deal with Uncertainty Enhance Adaptive Capacity The Lessons Rhinoceros Hornbill eating Strangler Fig fruits, Borneo