1. WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION
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WMO
WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION
CHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Geneva, Switzerland

2. Weather, water and climate-related hazards
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Weather, water and climate-related hazards
El Niño
Hot & cold spells
Droughts
River basin flooding
Tropical cyclones
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
Storm surges
Ice Storms
Storm (winds)
This chart shows the major hazards, increasing in areal coverage along the vertical direction, and in temporal coverage across the horizontal.
There are very few weather-related hazards that don’t affect any mountain cities. Well-established communities have built up their infrastructures and prospered within a general pattern of local climate to which they have adapted. However, meteorological and hydrological events with intensities outside that general pattern can cause catastrophic failures of environmental, economic and social systems. A few examples include:
** Strong winds that impose exceptional loading (or pressure) on buildings and power transmission towers, causing structural failure;
** Heavy rainfall that leads to flooding, accompanied by erosion that undermines structures and inundation that takes lives, destroys crops, drowns stock, contaminates fresh-water supplies and isolates communities;
** Prolonged high temperatures and dry periods, leading to drought with its associated erosion, loss of crops and ground cover, and loss of life;
** Heavy snowfall and ice loading that can lead to broken power and other overhead cables, and isolation of communities.
Major atmosphere-ocean coupled patterns such as the El Niño phenomenon in the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, influence the distribution of climatic hazards. The associated large scale variations in the oceans force changes in the atmosphere above, which affect the wind flow in the upper atmosphere. The effects are carried far from the source region by the modified large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, interacting with smaller scale influences such as the shapes and orientations of major mountain chains, resulting in changes in the normal weather patterns.
Dust storms
Wildland fires
& haze
Hail&Lightning
Mud & landslides
Flash floods
Avalanches
Tornadoes

3. Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002)
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Regional distribution of natural disasters ( )

4. Distribution of people killed (1993-2002)
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Distribution of people killed ( )

5. Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002)
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Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters ( )

6. Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts
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Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts

7. Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts
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Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts
In 2100 half of the world population will be under water stress
Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertification
Tropical zones: Increased health risks
High latitudes: permafrost decrease
Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions
Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)

8. Role of WMO in disaster management
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WMO
Role of WMO in disaster management
Risk identification
Knowledge management
Risk management applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)
Preparedness and emergency management
Governance support
Response
Recovery
Preparedness
Mitigation
Prevention

9. Risk Identification Monitoring
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Risk Identification
Monitoring
Early warnings for weather water or climate related disasters
Adaptation measures
Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis

10. Risk Identification: monitoring (1)
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Risk Identification: monitoring (1)

11. Risk Identification: monitoring (2)
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Risk Identification: monitoring (2)

12. Risk Identification: monitoring (3)
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Risk Identification: monitoring (3)

13. Risk Identification: monitoring (4)
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Risk Identification: monitoring (4)
Operational meteorological satellites, both polar-orbiting and geostationary
GOES‑10, GOES-1, NOAA-15, NOAA-16 and NOAA-17 operated by the United States;
GMS‑5 operated by Japan;
GOMS N‑1, METEOR 2-20, METEOR 2-21, METEOR 3-5 and METEOR 3M N1 operated by the Russian Federation;
Meteosat‑5, Meteosat-6 and Meteosat-7 operated by EUMETSAT;
FY-2B, FY-1C, FY-1D operated by China.
Additional satellites in orbit or in commissioning
GOES-8, GOES-9, and GOES-11 operated by the United States
MSG-1 operated by EUMETSAT
R&D satellites
NASA’s Aqua, Terra, NPP, TRMM, QuikSCAT and GPM missions,
ESA’s ENVISAT, ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions,
NASDA’s ADEOS II and GCOM series,
Rosaviakosmos’s research instruments on board ROSHYDROMET’s operational METEOR 3M N1 satellite, as well as on its future Ocean series and
CNES’s JASON-1 and SPOT-5

14. Risk Identification: monitoring (5)
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Risk Identification: monitoring (5)
900 Argo floats in operation by mid By 2005, some floats are planned.

15. Risk Identification: Early warnings (1)
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Risk Identification: Early warnings (1)
120 h
96 h
72 h
48 h
24 h
Ensemble Pred. tools
EPS, Probabilities
Global models
Global models
Limited Area models
L.A. models
Nowcasting tools
Nowcasting
Warnings Activities
Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)

16. Risk Identification: Early warnings (2)
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Risk Identification: Early warnings (2)
Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours.
Starting time of the forecast is 27 August UTC.
Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002
GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS

17. Risk Identification: Early warnings (3)
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Risk Identification: Early warnings (3)
Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available
Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability
Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies

18. Risk Identification: Early warnings (4)
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WMO
Risk Identification: Early warnings (4)
WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies
Regional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts
Forums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use

19. Risk Identification: Adaptation measures
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Risk Identification: Adaptation measures
Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change.
Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.

20. Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment
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Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment
Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities.
A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

21. Risk Identification: Hazard analysis
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Risk Identification: Hazard analysis
Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities.
Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning.
WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.

22. Knowledge Management (1)
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Knowledge Management (1)
Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)
Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information
WMO’s World Weather Research Programme
- support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX)
- translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena

23. Knowledge Management (2)
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Knowledge Management (2)
User education and awareness are essential:
to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics
to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users
to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness
to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions
WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings

24. Risk Management Applications (1)
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Risk Management Applications (1)
The WMO ’
s Technical Commission for Hydrology conducts
a project on “
Risk Management ”
Aim to assist
NHSs
in implementing risk management
practices
Scope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelines
and best practice for use by
NHSs
on risk management
Is a demonstration project which will initially focus on
Africa and Asia

25. Risk Management Applications (2)
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Risk Management Applications (2)
The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors
Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management.
Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management

26. Risk Management Applications (3)
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Risk Management Applications (3)
WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme
Provides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.

27. Preparedness and emergency management
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Preparedness and emergency management
Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction
Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels
WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning

28. OMM
WMO
Governance Support
Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.
Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.
Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.
WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.

29. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1)
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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1)
Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003)
Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin
Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

30. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2)
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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2)
To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments
To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices

31. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3)
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Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3)
To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities

32. International Framework (1)
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International Framework (1)
Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries
Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity

33. International Framework (2)
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International Framework (2)
ISDR succeeded IDNDR
Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions:
Millennium Declaration
UNFCCC (climate change)
UNCCD (desertification)
Freshwater Agenda
World Summit on Sustainable Development

34. Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach
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Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach
National and regional levels
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Cooperation across disciplines and agencies
Links with academic community
International level
Between IGOs and NGOs concerned
Capacity building and transfer of technology activities

35. Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach
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Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach
In multiple domains
observations
communications
data processing (incl. NWP) …
Accross disciplines

36. Thank You