Presentation on theme: "WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION"— Presentation transcript:
1WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION OMMWMOWMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATIONCHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTIONWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)Geneva, Switzerland
2Weather, water and climate-related hazards OMMWMOWeather, water and climate-related hazardsEl NiñoHot & cold spellsDroughtsRiver basin floodingTropical cyclonesHeavy precipitations(rain or snow)Storm surgesIce StormsStorm (winds)This chart shows the major hazards, increasing in areal coverage along the vertical direction, and in temporal coverage across the horizontal.There are very few weather-related hazards that don’t affect any mountain cities. Well-established communities have built up their infrastructures and prospered within a general pattern of local climate to which they have adapted. However, meteorological and hydrological events with intensities outside that general pattern can cause catastrophic failures of environmental, economic and social systems. A few examples include:** Strong winds that impose exceptional loading (or pressure) on buildings and power transmission towers, causing structural failure;** Heavy rainfall that leads to flooding, accompanied by erosion that undermines structures and inundation that takes lives, destroys crops, drowns stock, contaminates fresh-water supplies and isolates communities;** Prolonged high temperatures and dry periods, leading to drought with its associated erosion, loss of crops and ground cover, and loss of life;** Heavy snowfall and ice loading that can lead to broken power and other overhead cables, and isolation of communities.Major atmosphere-ocean coupled patterns such as the El Niño phenomenon in the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, influence the distribution of climatic hazards. The associated large scale variations in the oceans force changes in the atmosphere above, which affect the wind flow in the upper atmosphere. The effects are carried far from the source region by the modified large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, interacting with smaller scale influences such as the shapes and orientations of major mountain chains, resulting in changes in the normal weather patterns.Dust stormsWildland fires& hazeHail&LightningMud & landslidesFlash floodsAvalanchesTornadoes
3Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002) OMMWMORegional distribution of natural disasters ( )
4Distribution of people killed (1993-2002) OMMWMODistribution of people killed ( )
5Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002) OMMWMOHydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters ( )
6Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts OMMWMOEvolution of natural disasters and their impacts
7Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts OMMWMOClimate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impactsIn 2100 half of the world population will be under water stressSubtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertificationTropical zones: Increased health risksHigh latitudes: permafrost decreaseCoastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusionsCost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)
8Role of WMO in disaster management OMMWMORole of WMO in disaster managementRisk identificationKnowledge managementRisk management applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)Preparedness and emergency managementGovernance supportResponseRecoveryPreparednessMitigationPrevention
9Risk Identification Monitoring OMMWMORisk IdentificationMonitoringEarly warnings for weather water or climate related disastersAdaptation measuresVulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis
13Risk Identification: monitoring (4) OMMWMORisk Identification: monitoring (4)Operational meteorological satellites, both polar-orbiting and geostationaryGOES‑10, GOES-1, NOAA-15, NOAA-16 and NOAA-17 operated by the United States;GMS‑5 operated by Japan;GOMS N‑1, METEOR 2-20, METEOR 2-21, METEOR 3-5 and METEOR 3M N1 operated by the Russian Federation;Meteosat‑5, Meteosat-6 and Meteosat-7 operated by EUMETSAT;FY-2B, FY-1C, FY-1D operated by China.Additional satellites in orbit or in commissioningGOES-8, GOES-9, and GOES-11 operated by the United StatesMSG-1 operated by EUMETSATR&D satellitesNASA’s Aqua, Terra, NPP, TRMM, QuikSCAT and GPM missions,ESA’s ENVISAT, ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions,NASDA’s ADEOS II and GCOM series,Rosaviakosmos’s research instruments on board ROSHYDROMET’s operational METEOR 3M N1 satellite, as well as on its future Ocean series andCNES’s JASON-1 and SPOT-5
14Risk Identification: monitoring (5) OMMWMORisk Identification: monitoring (5)900 Argo floats in operation by mid By 2005, some floats are planned.
15Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) OMMWMORisk Identification: Early warnings (1)120 h96 h72 h48 h24 hEnsemble Pred. toolsEPS, ProbabilitiesGlobal modelsGlobal modelsLimited Area modelsL.A. modelsNowcasting toolsNowcastingWarnings ActivitiesTime dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)
16Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) OMMWMORisk Identification: Early warnings (2)Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours.Starting time of the forecast is 27 August UTC.Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
17Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) OMMWMORisk Identification: Early warnings (3)Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are availableRegular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variabilityClimate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies
18Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) OMMWMORisk Identification: Early warnings (4)WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomaliesRegional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecastsForums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use
19Risk Identification: Adaptation measures OMMWMORisk Identification: Adaptation measuresAdaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change.Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.
20Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment OMMWMORisk Identification: Vulnerability assessmentLinkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities.A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment
21Risk Identification: Hazard analysis OMMWMORisk Identification: Hazard analysisImproved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities.Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning.WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.
22Knowledge Management (1) OMMWMOKnowledge Management (1)Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast informationWMO’s World Weather Research Programme- support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX)- translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena
23Knowledge Management (2) OMMWMOKnowledge Management (2)User education and awareness are essential:to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topicsto ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended usersto build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparednessto enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisionsWMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings
24Risk Management Applications (1) OMMWMORisk Management Applications (1)The WMO’s Technical Commission for Hydrology conductsa project on“Risk Management”Aim to assistNHSsin implementing risk managementpracticesScope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelinesand best practice for use byNHSson risk managementIs a demonstration project which will initially focus onAfrica and Asia
25Risk Management Applications (2) OMMWMORisk Management Applications (2)The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectorsCollect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management.Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management
26Risk Management Applications (3) OMMWMORisk Management Applications (3)WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology ProgrammeProvides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.
27Preparedness and emergency management OMMWMOPreparedness and emergency managementTimely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reductionOptimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levelsWMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning
28OMMWMOGovernance SupportLegislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.
29Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) OMMWMODisaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1)Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003)Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological originDecided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities
30Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) OMMWMODisaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2)To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developmentsTo encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices
31Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) OMMWMODisaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3)To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities
32International Framework (1) OMMWMOInternational Framework (1)Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countriesSupport to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity
33International Framework (2) OMMWMOInternational Framework (2)ISDR succeeded IDNDRSeveral significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions:Millennium DeclarationUNFCCC (climate change)UNCCD (desertification)Freshwater AgendaWorld Summit on Sustainable Development
34Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach OMMWMOConclusions (1) Need for an integrated approachNational and regional levelsRole of National Meteorological and Hydrological ServicesCooperation across disciplines and agenciesLinks with academic communityInternational levelBetween IGOs and NGOs concernedCapacity building and transfer of technology activities
35Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach OMMWMOConclusions (2) Need for an integrated approachIn multiple domainsobservationscommunicationsdata processing (incl. NWP)…Accross disciplines