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The New Political Landscape Al From Founder and Chief Executive Officer Democratic Leadership Council

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Presentation on theme: "The New Political Landscape Al From Founder and Chief Executive Officer Democratic Leadership Council"— Presentation transcript:

1 The New Political Landscape Al From Founder and Chief Executive Officer Democratic Leadership Council

2 Americas Political Transformation OVERVIEW The New Reality: Parties are at Parity New Economy 0 New Citizenry 0 New Politics The New Democrat way is the politics of the future The path to a New Democrat majority

3 Political Parity The Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength

4 Parties at Parity The Reasons The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

5 The New Electorate PERIODDOMINANT VOTERS Industrial EraWorking Class Information AgeRising Learning Class

6 Voters Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000

7 An Affluent Electorate Characteristics of 2000 Voters

8 The Clinton Years

9 Family Incomes Percentage of families making more than $50K per year.

10 Up The Income Ladder Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

11 Colorado Family Incomes

12 Percentage of Families Making More than 50 K Per Year

13 Colorado Financial Status Compared to Four Years Earlier

14 Educational Attainment Percentage of voters with a college degree

15 The Vanishing Middle Democrats: By Education Level No HS HS Grad Some Col Col Grad Post Grad

16 Colorado Educational Attainment

17 Diversity

18 Colorado Diversity

19 The Bellwether: California The Electorate is Becoming More Diverse

20 The Suburbs Rule In 2000 Democrats Win Cities; Republicans Win Suburbs and Rural Areas

21 The Suburban Swing Congressional Seats

22 From City to Suburb Percentage of Statewide Vote

23 Wired Workers Percentage of Electorate

24 Colorado: New Jobs In Thousands

25 Internet Users Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

26 Generational Change In the 2000 Election Less than 10 percent of the electorate will be New Deal Era voters. The dominant generations are the skeptical generations the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

27 Political Views

28 The Colorado Electorate Political Views

29 Party Identification Percentage of Voters

30 The Colorado Electorate Party Identification

31 An Idea Based Coalition Tackling Americas New Challenges The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups. The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.

32 The New Democrat Philosophy America's Basic Bargain Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

33 Core Principles The New Democrat Philosophy Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook Empowering Government Mutual Responsibility Traditional Values

34 Role of Government What is the Proper Role of the Federal Government?

35 Government and the Economy What Role Should the Federal Government Play in the Economy?

36 Message Matters If a candidate for President said this, would it have made you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for them for President? Top Arguments Ranked by Much more likely Much More Likely More/ Less Likely I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America /15 I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all, demands responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a government that equips all Americans with the tools they need for economic success /15 I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and big tobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful /24 (All Voters)

37 Message Matters Key Voter Categories – Much More Likely Gore Voters Bush Voters Bush Swing Change the Tone Opportunity for All People Vs. the Powerful

38 Missing the Mark How Populism Failed with White Voters Whites % Gore Bush <15K K K K K K White Males White Females % Gore Bush % Gore Bush All <15K K K K K K Upper class Upr Mid Middle Work/Low

39 National Democratic Margin All /2000 Men Women White Men White Women 52 Even White Black Hispanic

40 The White Vote A Comparison of 1996 and 2000 National /2000 White Men White Women East White Men White Women Midwest White Men White Women South White Men White Women West White Men White Women

41 National Democratic Margin All /2000 Married No Married/Child No Work Woman 31 (29) No Gun Owner (37) No (63) Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) Monthly Seldom Never Catholic White Cath 25/whites

42 National Democratic Margin All /2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25) Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35) Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25) Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12) Liberal Moderate Conservative Democrat Republican Independent Govt. Should Do More (36) +52 (41) Do Less (55) -30 (52)

43 Swing States GOP Base Demo Base The Swing States

44 Democratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State California Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 Mass 12 Michigan Minnesota 10 New Jersey 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York Oregon 7 7 Penn R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 Wisconsin Total Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida Georgia Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio Tennessee 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total

45 Winning the Values Battle Lessons From the Clinton Victories Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents Raise Kids Support a Strong National Defense Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like Abortion or Guns

46 Building a New Democratic Majority Expand Beyond the Democratic Base Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and Rising Learning Class A Progressive Coalition for the 21st Century

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