1. The bleak future of Iraqi displaced Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007

2. Ethnic- Sectarian Faultline Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof. Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof. Post Samarra increasing Shiia revenge Post Samarra increasing Shiia revenge Shiia groups often split & includes targetting MNF-I Shiia groups often split & includes targetting MNF-I Kurdish aspirations in Mosul, Kirkuk and Diyala Kurdish aspirations in Mosul, Kirkuk and Diyala Tribal & criminal activity Tribal & criminal activity Regional considerations Regional considerations Parties believe they can still “maximise their gains” Parties believe they can still “maximise their gains” Moderates losing influence Moderates losing influence

3. Statistics Daily No. reported security incidents 150 - 200 Daily No. reported security incidents 150 - 200 Ave. 100+ killed per day (UNAMI) Ave. 100+ killed per day (UNAMI) Ave. 200 wounded per day. Ave. 200 wounded per day. 91% violent deaths men (2/3 15 -44 age) Lancet 91% violent deaths men (2/3 15 -44 age) Lancet Ave. family size 6 (Cluster F) Ave. family size 6 (Cluster F) Psychological impact 2:5 are mentally ill > women (WHO) Psychological impact 2:5 are mentally ill > women (WHO) Unemployment > 80 percent > Anbar (NCCI - UNAMI) Unemployment > 80 percent > Anbar (NCCI - UNAMI) > 50 living on 50 living on < USD 1 day (UNAMI) Inflation rate of > 70 percent ( NCCI – UNAMI – COSIT Iraqs Central Office of Statistics) Inflation rate of > 70 percent ( NCCI – UNAMI – COSIT Iraqs Central Office of Statistics)

5. Refugee Indicators Up to 2,000,000 in neighbouring states (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran) Up to 2,000,000 in neighbouring states (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran) Approx. 50,000 inside Iraq incl. 15,000 - Palestinians who are particularly at risk Approx. 50,000 inside Iraq incl. 15,000 - Palestinians who are particularly at risk Average case size increased from 2 to 3.6 (UNHCR) Average case size increased from 2 to 3.6 (UNHCR) Estimate of 560,000 Iraqi refugee children being of school going age (UNHCR, SCF, UNESCO) Estimate of 560,000 Iraqi refugee children being of school going age (UNHCR, SCF, UNESCO)

6. IDP Overview Est. 822,000 new IDPs since 02/06 UNHCR/Cluster F Est. 822,000 new IDPs since 02/06 UNHCR/Cluster F Total IDPs now exceeds 2 million Total IDPs now exceeds 2 million UNHCR est. 2.3 – 2.5 million IDPs by end 2007. UNHCR est. 2.3 – 2.5 million IDPs by end 2007. Ave. of 2,000 new IDPs per day (83 per hour) Ave. of 2,000 new IDPs per day (83 per hour) 10 Governorates restrict access to new IDPs 10 Governorates restrict access to new IDPs Increasing number of IDPs within Governorates Increasing number of IDPs within Governorates Denial to/register PDS food distribution Denial to/register PDS food distribution 25%+ of the 325,000 returnees have been displaced (UNHCR) 25%+ of the 325,000 returnees have been displaced (UNHCR)

7. Refugee Indicators (cont). 12 + % of households headed by women 12 + % of households headed by women 75 + % children not attending school 75 + % children not attending school Many Iraqi women do not have passports Many Iraqi women do not have passports 30% of refugees w/ special needs incl. 4% disabled 30% of refugees w/ special needs incl. 4% disabled Approx. 50% of refugees are Sunni. Approx. 50% of refugees are Sunni. 20 % Christians 20 % Christians Syria, Jordan, Lebanon not signed 1951 CSR Syria, Jordan, Lebanon not signed 1951 CSR Lack of work, self esteem leading to SGBV Lack of work, self esteem leading to SGBV Men leaving their families in neighbouring states Men leaving their families in neighbouring states Women/girls being forced into “survival sex” Women/girls being forced into “survival sex”

8. Refugees in Syria Govt. estimates 1.2 - 1.5 million Govt. estimates 1.2 - 1.5 million UNHCR registered 90,000 UNHCR registered 90,000 130,000 waiting to be registered Feb ‘08 130,000 waiting to be registered Feb ‘08 3 - 4,000 applying for registration daily basis 3 - 4,000 applying for registration daily basis Registering average 450+ per day Registering average 450+ per day Considers Iraqis as guests Considers Iraqis as guests Syria relatively generous > health, education Syria relatively generous > health, education Recent restrictions rescinded following HC’s visit Recent restrictions rescinded following HC’s visit UNHCR working with MoE, MoH, Red Crescent UNHCR working with MoE, MoH, Red Crescent

9. Refugees in Jordan Govt. est. 500-750,000 (approx 13% of pop’n) Govt. est. 500-750,000 (approx 13% of pop’n) UNHCR registered 35,000 UNHCR registered 35,000 Average of 450 people per day Average of 450 people per day Brazil agreed to take Ruweyshid Palestinians Brazil agreed to take Ruweyshid Palestinians Govt. recognising only “G” passports (renewal problem) Govt. recognising only “G” passports (renewal problem) No access to public education or subsidised health care No access to public education or subsidised health care Problem of detention and refoulement Problem of detention and refoulement No#s crossing negligible No#s crossing negligible Some positive signals Some positive signals

10. Lebanon Est. no# of Iraqis in Lebanon 40-80,000 Est. no# of Iraqis in Lebanon 40-80,000 No. of Iraqis registered is 6,500 No. of Iraqis registered is 6,500 Ave. size is less than 2 and mainly Shi’ite. Ave. size is less than 2 and mainly Shi’ite. Government hardened position Government hardened position Emb. in Baghdad issued 28,000 visas in 2006 Emb. in Baghdad issued 28,000 visas in 2006 150 Iraqis currently in detention in Lebanon 150 Iraqis currently in detention in Lebanon Priority concern is health Priority concern is health

11. Iraq Socio-economic indicators 80% of doctors have left some hospitals (UNAMI/media) 80% of doctors have left some hospitals (UNAMI/media) 75% of children are not in school in central/south (UNICEF) 75% of children are not in school in central/south (UNICEF) Immunised rates dropping from 83% Immunised rates dropping from 83% Prior to war Iraq had 1/3 doctors compared to Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (UNAMI) Prior to war Iraq had 1/3 doctors compared to Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (UNAMI) 30% - 70% of schools have closed (100% in parts of Baghdad) 30% - 70% of schools have closed (100% in parts of Baghdad) 70% lack access to adequate water supply (UNAMI - ICRC) 70% lack access to adequate water supply (UNAMI - ICRC) 81% lack access to effective sanitation (UNAMI - ICRC) 81% lack access to effective sanitation (UNAMI - ICRC) 8.3 million would be food insecure if the PDS fails (WFP) 8.3 million would be food insecure if the PDS fails (WFP) Perception that PDS has already ceased to function in some areas (WFP – UNAMI) Perception that PDS has already ceased to function in some areas (WFP – UNAMI) Chronic child malnutrition at 23% (17% acute in the sth) ILCS –UNDP Chronic child malnutrition at 23% (17% acute in the sth) ILCS –UNDP

12. UNHCR Objectives Reinforce staff in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey and Nth Iraq; Total of 300 including > 50 internationals Reinforce staff in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey and Nth Iraq; Total of 300 including > 50 internationals Reinforce UN response to IDP situation – effectiveness of remote management Reinforce UN response to IDP situation – effectiveness of remote management Establish registration/interview facilities Establish registration/interview facilities Register up to 200,000 most vulnerable Iraqis (on target at 130,000 +) Register up to 200,000 most vulnerable Iraqis (on target at 130,000 +) Support community based assistance, health, education Support community based assistance, health, education Direct assistance to EVI’s – Women at Risk Direct assistance to EVI’s – Women at Risk

13. Shelter project Thi Qar

14. Enhance capacity for resettlement referrals to 20,000 incl. 7,000 to US by 30/06 (110% met) Enhance capacity for resettlement referrals to 20,000 incl. 7,000 to US by 30/06 (110% met) At least 10% referrals WAR (above target 16%) At least 10% referrals WAR (above target 16%) Enhance border monitoring/detention visits. Enhance border monitoring/detention visits. Continue advocacy efforts to raise the profile of the humanitarian needs of the Iraqis (April Conf.) Continue advocacy efforts to raise the profile of the humanitarian needs of the Iraqis (April Conf.) Reinforce international/national staff (300 staff) Reinforce international/national staff (300 staff)