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MEDIUM TERM FOOD SECTOR OUTLOOK FOR INDIA PARMOD KUMAR Prof & Head, ADRTC, Institute for Social and Economic Change Bangalore – 560072 26 June, NCAER New.

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Presentation on theme: "MEDIUM TERM FOOD SECTOR OUTLOOK FOR INDIA PARMOD KUMAR Prof & Head, ADRTC, Institute for Social and Economic Change Bangalore – 560072 26 June, NCAER New."— Presentation transcript:

1 MEDIUM TERM FOOD SECTOR OUTLOOK FOR INDIA PARMOD KUMAR Prof & Head, ADRTC, Institute for Social and Economic Change Bangalore – 560072 26 June, NCAER New Delhi

2 Estimation of Demand System: Almost Ideal Demand Model The LA/AIDS model Non- linear SURE method Without and with restriction All Commodi ties into 7 groups Two Stage Budgeting Method

3 Estimation of Supply System: Simultaneous Model Supply response function Area function Yield function Price response function Export function

4 Household Demand Projections Using Expenditure Elasticities RiceWheat Other cereals Total cereals Pulses Total foodgrain Edible oils Actual demand 2009-1080.2361.439.97151.639.78161.419.76 Baseline (growth rate of NNP at 8.9 percent per annum) 2013-1481.7362.638.94153.0211.16164.1812.05 2014-1582.0262.898.70153.2311.52164.7512.69 2017-1883.0063.768.05154.1512.66166.8114.81 2020-2184.1764.837.52155.5013.93169.4217.28 High growth (growth rate of NNP at 12 percent per annum) 2013-1479.9661.168.11148.7411.65160.3913.07 2014-1579.8361.077.72147.9612.16160.1214.05 2017-1879.5960.966.73146.0713.82159.9017.43 2020-2179.6261.115.98144.8815.73160.6021.62 Low growth (growth rate of NNP at 6 percent per annum) 2013-1483.4264.059.78157.1410.72167.8611.16 2014-1584.1364.659.72158.3610.95169.3111.53 2017-1886.3566.559.57162.2311.69173.9212.71 2020-2188.7568.629.44166.4512.48178.9214.03

5 Indirect Demand for Seed, Feed, Wastage, Industrial and Other Indirect Uses (SFW) (million tonnes) RiceWheat Coarse cereals PulsesTotal foodgrains 1990-95 5.4210.4513.054.5633.48 1996-00 7.1914.5817.624.3543.73 2001-05 4.5915.5318.743.2842.14 2006-10 7.7518.0224.455.8856.10 2013-1410.9622.9428.597.9870.47 2014-1511.1023.6129.598.0572.35 2017-1811.5425.7232.808.2778.34 2020-2112.0028.0336.378.5084.89

6 Aggregate Demand (direct + indirect) RiceWheat Other Cereals Total Cereals Pulses Foodgrai ns Edible OilOilseeds Actual demand 2009-10 77.1276.1627.33180.6113.73194.349.7634.9 Baseline (growth rate of NNP at 8.9 per cent per annum) 2013-1492.6985.5837.52215.7919.14234.9312.0543.1 2014-1593.1286.5038.28217.9019.57237.4712.6945.3 2017-1894.5489.4940.85224.8820.93245.8214.8152.9 2020-2196.1792.8543.88232.9122.42255.3317.2861.7 High growth (growth rate of NNP at 12 per cent per annum) 2013-1490.9284.1036.70211.7219.63231.3513.0746.7 2014-1590.9384.6837.31212.9120.21233.1214.0550.2 2017-1891.1486.6839.54217.3522.09239.4517.4362.2 2020-2191.6289.1442.35223.1124.22247.3321.6277.2 Low growth (growth rate of NNP at 6 per cent per annum) 2013-1494.3886.9938.37219.7418.70238.4411.1639.9 2014-1595.2388.2639.31222.8019.00241.8011.5341.2 2017-1897.8992.2842.37232.5419.96252.5012.7145.4 2020-21100.7596.6545.80243.2020.98264.1814.0350.1

7 Aggregate production projections 2012-132013-142014-152017-182020-21 Period I (1980-81 to 1994-95) Rice105.2112.3113.8122.7131.6 Wheat93.595.597.2103.8103.0 Other cereals40.043.543.945.144.4 Pulses18.316.415.915.615.5 Total Foodgrains257.1267.7270.9287.1294.5 Oilseeds30.937.237.442.750.2 Period II (1995-96 to 2012-13) Rice105.2111.4112.8121.1129.4 Wheat93.593.694.698.9103.4 Other cereals40.044.045.751.656.6 Pulses18.316.415.915.715.8 Total Foodgrains257.1265.4269.1287.3305.2 Oilseeds30.936.636.541.046.0

8 Aggregate export projections 2012-132013-142014-152017-182020-21 Period I (1980-81 to 1994-95) Rice10.16.76.87.27.6 Wheat6.50.1 0.30.7 Other cereals5.25.75.34.13.0 Pulses0.0 Total Foodgrains21.712.512.311.611.3 Oilseeds1.01.31.21.00.9 Period II (1995-96 to 2012-13) Rice10.17.78.410.412.3 Wheat6.50.1 Other cereals5.26.36.69.415.1 Pulses0.0 Total Foodgrains21.714.115.219.827.5 Oilseeds1.01.71.92.43.0

9 Net balances of supply and demand RiceWheat Other cereals Total cereals PulsesFoodgrains Oilsee ds Without adjusting for exports 2013-14Low20.49.56.836.8-2.335.0-3.3 2013-14High17.98.55.732.1-3.228.3-9.5 2014-15Low21.810.06.638.4-3.137.1-4.7 2014-15High18.69.06.434.0-4.327.9-12.8 2017-18Low30.012.25.547.7-4.449.8-4.4 2017-18High24.811.59.245.5-6.432.6-19.5 2020-21Low37.813.92.153.8-5.550.4-4.1 2020-21High30.86.710.848.4-8.537.8-27.0 After making adjustments for exports 2013-14Low13.89.41.124.3-2.322.5-4.6 2013-14High10.28.4-0.718.0-3.214.3-11.3 2014-15Low15.09.81.326.1-3.124.9-5.9 2014-15High10.28.9-0.218.8-4.312.7-14.7 2017-18Low22.711.91.536.1-4.438.2-5.4 2017-18High14.511.4-0.125.7-6.412.8-21.9 2020-21Low30.213.2-0.942.5-5.539.2-4.9 2020-21High18.56.6-4.320.9-8.510.2-30.1

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14 Thank You

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