1. Helen Joyce Brazil bureau chief Latin America and Brazil: the political and economic prospects for the construction industry

2. Brazil takes off Latin America: Nobody’s backyard

3. Brazil is the country of the future… (and always will be) Countries named after commodities: Argentina; Brazil; Panama; Uruguay

4. Latin America’s strengths Big; stable; growing population; young Growing richer and less unequal Developing domestic consumer market Mineral resources: oil, iron ore, precious metals Thriving agribusiness: soya, protein, sugar, fruits, coffee, ethanol, wood… Optimism! And things are worse elsewhere The potential for much more growth ahead

6. An economy of two halves… Domestic consumption… The explosion of pent-up consumer demand 30-40m “new middle-class” in Brazil, and lots more well- off people too Huge increases in credit A developing mortgage market Shopping centres Travel and tourism Auto sales

7. …and extractive industries Some of the world’s most productive farms Huge commodity reserves Infrastructure being developed by oil and mining companies and agribusiness Energy: sugar-cane ethanol; flex-fuel cars; advanced biofuels and thermal-power generation Brazil’s off-shore “sub-salt” oil: like sending a man to the moon

8. …What’s long been lacking: investment and competitiveness… Low domestic savings (in Brazil < 20% of GDP) Capital scarce and pricey; very high interest rates, especially in Brazil In Brazil, BNDES provides most long-term credit Poor education, low productivity (though not in Mexican industry), fast-rising prices, scarce labour Ubiquitous cost and scheduling over-runs Backlogs in infrastructure and maintenance

9. Difficulties in doing business Cartorios; lawyers; despachantes Growing protectionism Corruption…or at least a personalised style of doing business High-cost, low-quality labour Brazil in particular is still a closed economy; serious bottlenecks in foreign trade (Cultural) difficulties in saying “no”!

10. The agenda Persistent slow growth: four BRICs – three that grow and one that doesn’t A slowdown in China. Domestic consumption based partly on strong commodity exports Growing political interference Overvalued currency; high costs; inflation Complacency: reform fatigue has set in before reforms even started

11. What’s needed A genuine effort to tackle costs, for example the infamous “custo Brasil” A “doing business agenda” Greater government efficiency Better education Better rules and regulators A sense of urgency