Presentation on theme: "The use of micro-data in the ECB Francesco Strobbe Luxembourg, 26-27 October 2006 OECD Conference: Assessing the feasibility of micro-data access European."— Presentation transcript:
The use of micro-data in the ECB Francesco Strobbe Luxembourg, 26-27 October 2006 OECD Conference: Assessing the feasibility of micro-data access European Central Bank
The use of micro-data in the ECB - I Monetary policy analysis is mainly based on macro statistics (mainly collected from EU NCBs) but more and more interest also in micro data based analysis Moreover micro-data bases have high potential to make statistical production more efficient
The use of micro-data in the ECB - II In particular, the ECB is currently working on 4 main projects in the field of financial micro-data: –Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) –Market Data Provision Project (MDP) –Survey data on Households Finance and Consumption (HFC) –Euro Area Corporate Balance Sheet Data (EACBS)
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) - I The CSDB is a comprehensive database developed by the ECB It contains information on over 2 millions debt securities, equities and mutual funds issued by EU residents or by others It uses commercial and other statistics sources, selecting the most reliable value for each attribute It makes use of expertise within the ESCB to enhance data quality and filling gaps (on prices and income) with reliable estimates
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) - II The CSDB has been launched in first place to support ESCB wide production systems in the area of financial statistics To this end the aim of the CSDB is to hold complete, accurate, consistent and up-to-date information on all individual securities relevant for the statistical purposes of the ESCB From a statistical angle, the CSDB has 2 main functions: –To compile euro area aggregates –To provide a reference source on individual securities and issuers
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) - III Statistics on financial stocks and flows broken down by institutional sector and broad class of financial instrument are essential for the conduct of monetary policy Microeconomic analysis of financial markets, focusing on specific instruments and markets, is growing in importance (e.g. : risks of different types of instruments and exposure of debtors and creditors in Basel II) Reliable information on individual securities is also relevant for the ECBs operational purposes (e.g. assets eligible as collateral in Eurosystem monetary operations).
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) - IV
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB) - V The Production system of the CSDB is currently updated on a daily basis; the data dissemination system is refreshed monthly Online access to the CSDB is available only in the ECB Future developments: –Phase 2: online access to data for central banks and automated data exchange –Possibly Phase 3: inclusion of information on holders of securities (providing aggregates by country of residence and, where possible, by economic sector)
Market Data Provision (MDP) - I The ECB uses financial market statistics in order to analyse the relationship between monetary policy and the structure and dynamics of financial markets; The analysis of high-frequency series offers an insight into instantaneous reactions of market participants to specific events; Primary objective of the MDP project is to deliver a system able to: –Collect, store and filter prices, volumes and a minimal set of reference data of financial market instruments at instrument level and at various frequencies from a few major data providers
Market Data Provision (MDP) - II The financial markets data collected, from various geographical regions and in various currency denominations, includes: –Interest rate related instruments (deposits, loans, derivatives etc) –Equity related instruments (stocks, indices, derivatives etc) –Foreign exchange (currencies, derivatives etc) –Commodity derivatives, credit derivatives and other financial market instruments The data is used for the production of statistics for internal and external use. These statistics include: –Financial market indicators, such as the yield curves, volatilities and indices, etc. –Financial integration indicators, such as the money market, bond market and corporate bond market indicators, etc.
So far the ECB used households data based on the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) to: –Assess the financial vulnerability of mortgage-indebted euro area households (Financial Stability Review, Dec. 2005) –Assess the debt servicing burden of euro area households – microeconomic evidence (ECB Monthly Bulletin, Dec. 2005) –Estimate the labour quality in the euro area (ECB Monthly Bulletin, Oct. 2005 and ECB Working Paper No. 575) While ECHP data proved to be good when focusing on income or labour issues, the same does not apply to finance/portfolio issues Households Finance and Consumption (HFC) - I
Households Finance and Consumption (HFC) - II Comparable and comprehensive micro data on HFC covering the entire euro area are not available The Eurosystem is currently investigating the need and the feasibility of collecting survey data on households finance and consumption A coordinated survey for the euro area on HFC would: –Support policy analysis in all major functions of the Eurosystem (monetary policy; financial stability; payment systems) –Offer a consistent cross-country picture of households assets and liabilities –Enhance the understanding of the mutual interaction between households behaviour, financial markets and the macro-economy
Households Finance and Consumption (HFC) - III Survey data can help address many questions of vital interest to central banks at various stages of the policy making process: –Households finance and consumption patterns –Measurement of households net worth –Borrowing and liquidity constraints –Marginal propensity to consume out of wealth Some examples for the possible use of survey data: –Real estate booms and financial vulnerability of households sector –Financial integration and modernisation in retail banking –Aging, pension reforms and saving patterns
The data would complement other micro-economic data (e.g. firms and banks balance sheets; bank lending survey) and macro-economic data on the households sector (e.g. financial and non-financial accounts) Special challenges posed by the data collection: –Households may be reluctant to reveal info on financial matters in particular wealthy ones, these should therefore be over-represented in the sample –Representative samples for each country for meaningful comparisons Households Finance and Consumption (HFC) - IV
Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) - I CBS are an important statistical source to analyse the economic behaviour of non-financial corporations in the euro area; Changes in monetary policy influence the financing conditions of enterprises via various channels (i.e. interest rate, credit and balance sheet channels) A detailed understanding of –corporate financing decisions –the financial situation of corporations –the cost of financing is important for monetary policy in the context of an assessment of financial and economic developments.
Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) - II CBS may be derived by aggregating national balance sheets and income statements made available by: –National authorities (generally Central banks or Statistical Offices) –Commercial Data Providers So far, the compilation of EACBS has been complicated by: –Lack of comprehensive and timely data –Heterogeneity of accounting standards in Member States –Confidentiality constraints (exchange of individual data)
PurposeMonetary policy analysis Financial stability analysis Other statistical purposes Dimension Conjunctural analysis Structural analysis TimelinessVery importantLess importantImportantVery important FrequencyQuarterlyAnnualQuarterly and annual Coverage by economic activity, size, and legal form Important Less Important Country coverageImportant Back dataVery importantImportantLess importantVery important Compatibility with national and financial accounts Very importantImportantLess importantVery important Individual dataLess importantImportant Less important ConsolidationConsolidated and non- consolidated Non- consolidated Consolidated and non- consolidated Non-consolidated Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) – III
Aggregated non-financial corporation data National CBSOs data (only available on request) BACH database Individual non- financial corporation data Amadeus database Thomson Financial database OSIRIS database CBS Data available at the ECB Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) – IV
Annual and quarterly analysis of the financial conditions of the euro area non-financial corporations sector (broken down by branch of activity and size class) –Thomson Financial; Amadeus; BACH Quarterly analysis (in the ECB Monthly Bulletin) –Quarterly euro area sample drawn from Thomson Financial Financial Stability Review (Balance sheet conditions of non- financial corporations) –Amadeus and Thomson Financial Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) - V
Collection of balance sheet data: costly undertaking Therefore the ECB, in cooperation with the European Committee of CBS Data Offices, strives for further improvements regarding: –Timeliness –Frequency –Availability of individual data Corporate Balance Sheet Data (CBS) - VI
Concluding remarks The use of financial micro-data will increasingly support policy analysis in all major functions of the Eurosystem Still a lot work has to be done but the ECB supports initiatives, like the OECD conference, aiming at exchanging best practices at international level and at fostering a dialogue on this topic