1. Turning labour market information into labour market intelligence Paul Bivand Inclusion

2. Developments Sources Methods Visualisation Being up to the minute

3. Sources: the Office for National Statistics The ONS produce most ‘national’ and ‘official’ statistics on the labour market They try very hard to – Get the figures right, beyond challenge – Explain and visualise the figures – New economic statistics page: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/site-information/using- the-website/time-series/index.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/site-information/using- the-website/time-series/index.html – Youtube https://www.youtube.com/user/onsstatshttps://www.youtube.com/user/onsstats

4. ONS Labour Market Framework People Families/hhlds Labour supply Labour demand EmployedUnemployedInactive Self-employed Employees Gvt schemes Employers VacanciesJobs

5. The ONS operates by ‘themes’ The Labour Market is one: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.h tml?nscl=Labour+Market http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.h tml?nscl=Labour+Market More detailed local area data is available from NOMIS www.nomisweb.co.uk butwww.nomisweb.co.uk – Much of the information that is most compatible with ONS preferred measures is delayed compared to current ONS data – e.g. Annual Population Survey – And not seasonally adjusted, which can confuse

6. Visualising expressed demand for skills and occupations Using earnings surveys – the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings And the Labour Force Survey – looking at people who have started jobs in the previous three months – Can include people moving jobs

7. What’s expressed demand? Employers pay earnings packages they need to recruit, retain and motivate staff Relative pay therefore encodes some features of expressed demand So do changes in relative pay, and changes in numbers employed

8. Only two charts My first chart shows ASHE annual earnings by occupationfirst chart shows ASHE annual earnings by occupation Showing the earnings distribution by boxplots – so the hinges are quartiles and the whiskers are deciles Ordered the occupations by median pay I’ve then coloured the fill of each box to show the qualification level of recruits

9. Labour Force Survey analysis We now have eight quarters of LFS coded to SOC 2010 7.2 million (weighted) instances of jobs starting in the previous 3 months – recruits Have estimated the qualification level of recruits Information for 353 out of 369 4-digit occupation groups

10. This tells us What is the pay range for each occupation – what employers are paying What qualifications are held by job starters Could have coloured by: Numbers of job starters – giving a different picture

11. This is just a static analysis ASHE gives us the opportunity to measure change However, the change in Occupation Classification means that any medium- term change can only be done up to 2011 or the 2011-12 change Single year changes contain random effects (like when pay reviews happen early or late)

12. Relative rises and falls We have plotted the change in earnings 2006-11 and in ASHE employee numbers 2006-11 We have plotted the change in earnings 2006-11 and in ASHE employee numbers 2006-11 We have coloured the occupations by the qualification level of new job entrants in 2009-10 – with red as high qualified this time

13. What does this show? Top right quadrant – jobs rising in pay and in numbers – in demand (though some minimum wage jobs) Bottom right quadrant – jobs rising in numbers but relatively dropping in pay – market is supplying enough new skills Top left quadrant – dropping numbers but rising relative pay – employers making a market response to recruit when careers more risky

14. And what about the bottom left? Falling relative pay and falling numbers Skilled trades Process, plant workers Secretarial And some STEM occupations – particularly technicians Rational to avoid these occupations

15. Visualisation: the next big thing The ONS visualisations we saw earlier are useful, because they enable users not only to interact, but also to download copies in a range of formats As well as the underlying data

16. More information will be circulated... A couple of years ago I prepared a set of course notes on labour market information A couple of years ago I prepared a set of course notes on labour market information – How to use NOMIS (still good) – How to use Neighbourhood Statistics (mostly still works) – Other Government departments – the move to GOV.UK has changed most things