1. Mind Weave Weather Model and Analysis By James Eck and James Mackie

2. Outline Background Theory Experiment Results Analysis Conclusions

3. Background Mind Weave is a role-playing game being created by James Eck. In the game wizards can cast spells that will affect aspects of the weather. By analyzing the covariance of certain weather parameters and variables, a player can get a better understanding of how their spells will affect other characters and the environment.

4. Theory (Asymptotic Decorrelation of a first-order, one- dimensional, auto-regressive process with coefficient a < 1)

5. Estimating Rainfall Alteration From this we can derive the relationship We desired to know how changes in temperature and moisture affect rainfall We used a conditional expectation to show

6. Experiment 50 x 50 cell environment created Each cell is 1 square mile Parameters of moisture, wind, humidity, and temperature given to each cell Rainfall and cloud cover are random variables

7. Cloud Demonstration

8. Results Asymptotic Decorrelation Rain and Cloud Cover Covariance Rain Estimator Error

9. Correlation Coefficient

10. Covariance Equation Cloud and Rain Covariance

12. Ŷ=Ŷ= Y = Actual Rain Rate Rain Estimator

15. Analysis As in real life, weather in this model is asymptotically uncorrelated in time and space. Clouds imply rain more strongly when it is wet than when it is dry. Our rainfall estimation has lag and that change is larger when the sun is out. – Weighting magical costs, cold is almost 3 times as effective as water for causing rain.

16. Spell Demonstration

17. Conclusions Asymptotic decorrelation is shown in space and time. Correlation is strongest between rainfall and cloud cover when conditions are wet. Our rainfall estimator gets less accurate as sun intensity increases.