1. Employment, unemployment and economic activity Coventry working age population by disability status Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics www.nomisweb.co.uk www.nomisweb.co.uk

2. Interpreting the data The data presented in the following charts and discussed in the related commentary are estimates taken from responses from working age Coventry residents to the national ‘Annual Population Survey’ conducted by the Office for National Statistics. They are taken from five surveys conducted on a rolling annual basis from April 2007 – March 2008 to April 2011 - March 2012, each of the five survey results were taken from between 1,100 and 1,200 working age respondents living in Coventry. The true proportions amongst all working age Coventry residents (of whom there are about 208,000 in total) lie within a certain margin of error (a ‘confidence interval’) either side of the proportions found in the survey results. Due to this, the extent to which the survey results have changed between 2007-8 and 2011-12 (and even the fact that they have changed at all) may not accurately represent real changes in the proportions who are unemployed, employed and economically active amongst all working age residents of Coventry. Statistical tests* were conducted on the survey data to determine whether we can robustly conclude that the difference between the results from the 2007-8 and 2011-12 surveys are a true reflection of the real story amongst all working age residents or whether they could be due to the sample of people who were surveyed at that time. The results of the tests are discussed briefly in the commentary. * The ‘two proportion Z test’. http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-4/Test-Difference-Proportion.aspx?Tutorial=AP

3. Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics. www.nomisweb.co.ukwww.nomisweb.co.uk Definitions: In employment – in paid work; full time or part time, employed or self employed. Unemployed – the definition set out by the International Labour Organisation. Not in employment and actively seeking employment (has sought work in the last four weeks). The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed to employed – the % of economically active working age residents who are unemployed. Essentially, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all those who want to work (including those already in employment). Economically active – either in employment or unemployed. Economically inactive – not economically active. Not in employment and not actively seeking employment. Take me to chart overview

4. Employment and Economic Activity by disability – FY on FY Employment and Economic Activity – Percentage point difference over time (FY – FY) Take me to definitions

5. What is this telling me? Take me home In March 2012 the unemployment rate (a 12 month average) amongst all working age (16 - 64) residents of Coventry was 9.5% compared to the overall rate for England of 8.2%. That is, 9.5% of economically active residents were out of work and actively seeking work. Between 2007-8 and 2011-12 the unemployment rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 increased from 7.2% to 9.5%. Survey estimates give some indication that unemployment has increased amongst disabled and non disabled residents of Coventry, to a similar degree. The definition of disability in this case is self declared; approximately one in five working age residents of Coventry say that they have a disability. Between 2007-8 and 2011-12 the unemployment rate amongst disabled people increased by an estimated 1.6 percentage points from around 12% in 2007-8 to around 14% in 2011-12. This is compared to an increase in unemployment amongst non-disabled people by an estimated 2.4 percentage points from around 7% in 2007-8 to around 9% in 2011-12. Significance testing of the survey results from disabled and non disabled people conclude that the rate changes are not sufficiently large (and the number of disabled people surveyed was relatively small) to be sure that unemployment has gone up amongst all disabled or non disabled people in the city. Take me back to the data

6. What is this telling me? Take me home The difference between the estimated unemployment rate increases experienced by disabled and non disabled people is relatively small, not large enough to conclude that one group as a whole across Coventry has experienced a different change to the other. Before the recession in 2007-8 disabled people in Coventry had a higher unemployment rate than non disabled people and this appears to still be the case in 2011-12. This is also the case nationally. The data gives some evidence to suggest that the unemployment gap between disabled and non disabled residents has narrowed marginally in the last four 4 years. As with the overall unemployment rate amongst all working age residents, unemployment increased amongst disabled and non disabled people mainly between 2007-8 and 2009-10 with little change in the level in the last two years. Take me back to the data

7. What is this telling me? Take me home In March 2012 the employment rate (a 12 month average) amongst all working age (16 - 64) residents of Coventry was 64% compared to the overall rate for England of 70%. That is, 64% of all working age residents were in employment, whether that be full time or part time, as an employee or self employed. Between 2007-8 and 2011-12 the employment rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 fell from 70% to 64%. The survey results estimate that working age residents with a disability experienced a fall in their employment rate by about 7 percentage points from 48% in 2007-8 to 41% in 2011-12. For working age residents without a disability the results give an estimate that the employment rate fell by about 5 percentage points from 75% to 70%. This is an indication that disabled people have experienced a greater impact of the recession in terms of loss of employment than non disabled people. However, the margins of error associated with the survey results mean that it cannot be definitively concluded that the employment rate falls amongst disabled people have been greater than amongst non disabled people. Take me back to the data

8. What is this telling me? Take me home As with unemployment, where disabled people have higher rates, proportionally fewer disabled people were in employment in 2007 - 8 compared to non disabled people and this remains in 2011 – 12. The estimated employment rate amongst disabled people in 2011-12 is 40% compared to 70% amongst non disabled people – a very significant gap. This is not just amongst Coventry residents, non disabled people have higher employment rates in general nationally. The results indicate that disabled residents have suffered a greater fall in employment in the last two years between 2009-10 and 2011-12 compared to the first two years after the recession – this is a slightly different pattern than the pattern seen overall for all residents. Take me back to the data

9. What is this telling me? Take me home In March 2012 the economic activity rate (a 12 month average) amongst all working age (16 - 64) residents of Coventry was 70% compared to the overall rate for England of 77%. That is, 70% of all working age residents were economically active, either in employment or actively looking for work. Between 2007-8 and 2011-12 the economic activity rate amongst all residents aged 16 – 64 fell from 76% to 70%. Both disabled and non disabled residents of Coventry have seen a fall in economic activity; there are indications that disabled people have experienced a greater fall in economic activity. The survey results estimate that working age residents with a disability experienced a fall in economic activity by about 7 percentage points from 54% of all working aged disabled residents in 2007-8 to 47% in 2011-12. For working age residents without a disability the results give an estimate that the economic activity rate fell by less than 4 percentage points from 80% in 2007-8 to 77% in 2011-12. Due to the relatively small number of disabled people surveyed, results of statistical tests do not allow us to be sure that the proportion who are economically activity has reduced amongst all residents with a disability in general. Take me back to the data

10. What is this telling me? Take me home While the changes in the surveys results are not quite statistically significant, looking at all the labour market survey data together gives us some good indications. The indication that economic activity has fallen by more amongst disabled residents correlates with the indications that employment has fallen by more amongst disabled people. It appears that many of the disabled residents who are no longer in employment as a result of the recession have become economically inactive. As with the fall in employment amongst disabled people, the fall in economic activity amongst disabled people appears to have happened more in the last two years whereas non disabled people experienced a more gradual fall in the four years since 2008. It is estimated that fewer than half of all working age Coventry residents with a disability are economically active (in employment or actively seeking work) compared to three quarters of non disabled working age residents. This substantial gap is also a reality in England overall and has persisted in the last 4 yours since the recession. Significance tests on the Coventry survey results confirm that economic activity amongst disabled residents was significantly lower than amongst non disabled residents in 2007-8 and that was still the case in 2011-1. Take me back to the data